Breeezy
Registered User
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Posts: 8
Loc: Crystal River, FL
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Hi Colleen...
What is a model guidance envelope?
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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It really is amazing.We are seeing something very rare.And who knows what the rest of the season will bring.We have some in here who are thinking more west for and some thinking more east.I am on the side of a more east track.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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PolkBB
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 15
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I read that too and it mentions that steering currents could weaken some. I'm sure that makes everyone sleep easier. 
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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For the first 72ish hours, the forecast for is very straightforward...a west to wnw motion towards Jamaica and Cuba....there is tremendous model and common sense agreement on this...there is very little chance that pulls up short and heads to the Atlantic coast of FL...this is almost certainly a GOM storm.
However, where in the GOM is still very much open to speculation.
Beyond 72, things, as Forecaster Stewart said tonight "get murky". The consensus is more to the west of the official track...the reason is that the dynamic models are somewhat underforecasting the strength (compared to thinking) of ...stronger storms tend to want to move towards the poles...so might make a more northward motion than the modelling is catching at this point. The real key to this is the strength of the ridge and any potential weakness that develops with the ridge.
For once, I find myself agreeing almost completely with . I am more to the east with my track than most of the modelling. However, at this time, I don't foresee a significant threat to SW FL unless something significantly changes (and it could, but I don't consider that to be a very likely scenario). My personal landfall range is from Cross City to Sabine Pass, with the most likely area from Grand Isle to Destin.
Words of caution: The models, almost certainly, will change dramatically over time...don't sit there hitting refresh on your browser and hang on every run...watch the trend, not the specific model output...trying to verify a particular model 5 days out is a fools errand...and trust me, I am one of the biggest fools you will find!
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Jason Kelley
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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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Yeah, if slows as it approaches Jamaica and given the weakness in the ridge caused by Cindy and a trough expected in the east, I wouldn't say Florida is in the clear yet, as I have heard on other sites and news outlets. I wish I were confident this would GO WEST young man!
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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10:30PM Update from Tropical Storm Cindy (New Orleans, LA)
Well the first batch of serious rain has arrived here about 20 minutes ago. Sustained winds of about 25-30 mph right now with a gust to 35-40 every now and again. Nothing to write home about at this point. Down in Grand Isle though they have taken quite the beatin' as the mayor and councilman were just on talking about how they are ready for Cindy to move out. Still waiting for the worst of it, it's probably about an hour away. The thing that has me somewhat worried is that Cindy seems to have slowed down somewhat and doesn't look to be moving a whole bunch right now. Hopefully, it's just the interaction with land.
P.S. I am not paying any attention to right now except to look at the tracks and what not to see where it is going but here is a word of advice. Stop worrying about every little move here and there when the thing is four days out from the Gulf. I hate to say it but I see some potential "wishcasting" going on in here. If you want one that bad, you can have ours. We surely don't need them here in New Orleans.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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This 'setup' would be near to what we have seen with Cindy. If I am thinking correctly.
Trough pushing from N Texas and high pressure ridge from the Atlantic, across Florida.
Close to the current situation...right?
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Well Jason,I am going on the record of disagreeing with you.This can not be called a GOM storm yet.Still to far east and many things could happen that could bring it to south Florida,you know what they are.If this thing continues to slow all bets are off.Plus the high is moving east.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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PolkBB
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 15
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Charley caught me by surprise in Fort Meade so I'm trying to keep an eye on anything major that could come from that direction.
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Dennis is in a rapid intensification mode currently, the is consolidating nicely and he is slowing down which will lead to more strengthening. Local mets around here are saying it all depends on the ridge weakening over Fla in the upcoming days which will determine how close it gets to the west side of the Fla Penninsula as it tracks into the GOM.
I think the keys (especially lower) will have the greatest risk and then from the Panhandle westward long term., a lot depends on the speed of the system.
I would be surprised if does not become a Cat 1 Hurricane by tomorrow afternoon and from there all bets are off as the conditions appear favorable for further intensifcation. 
TG
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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If it were at 80 degrees I may agree with you,but still to far east to write off se fl.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
Well Jason,I am going on the record of disagreeing with you.
Good!!!!
All forecasts, whether they are professional or amateur, are opinions...and it is good to have varing opinions! Observing and thinking for yourself are very important in the evolution of learning to forecast. The fact that you disagree with me isn't a bad thing at all, even if you are right and I am wrong...if the one of us who is wrong learns from the mistake and applies it to future forecasts.
Don't take my (or Clark's, or ED's or 's or anyone's) forecast blindly, if you are learning to do this yourself...ask questions and poke holes in the forecasts that are out there...that is the way to learn!
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Jason Kelley
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dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Folks...It all comes to timming, timming. It sounds to me like the wake left behind our TS is of less importance than the "Sharp shortwave". Not to put the fear in anyone, but the points to take from Stewart's discussion: That shortwave, the larger than average size of the system providing additional ridge breakdown, the shift of an e-w oriented high to one that is n-s, and the strength of the storm (which was mentioned before in poleward attitude). The only strays to the extreme side of a guidance envelope when there is a confidently identifyable trend. Wouldn't be surprised to see the models come in line...and I wouldn't be shocked if the track shifted further east. Either way...Remember the 5-day error and keep the cone in mind.
Edited by dem05 (Wed Jul 06 2005 04:02 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
P.S. I am not paying any attention to right now except to look at the tracks and what not to see where it is going but here is a word of advice. Stop worrying about every little move here and there when the thing is four days out from the Gulf. I hate to say it but I see some potential "wishcasting" going on in here. If you want one that bad, you can have ours. We surely don't need them here in New Orleans.
Like Shawn said.
Dennis is roughly 3-5 days out of the Gulf of Mexico. High numbers in the probability of it coming into the GOM.
If you live anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico please make sure that things are in order now. Like fuel, disaster supplies, and flood insurance.
Have everything ready to go, whether you leave or not, and when enters the GOM, you won't have to worry about preparations.
Plan now for leaving, and hope that you don't have to.
Storms rarely move faster than 20 mile per hour, so there is plenty of time to do other things right now.
Once arrives in the GOM you can watch his every move, knowing that you are ready.
Oh, don't forget to make sure that family, freinds and others are ready too.
Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 06 2005 04:13 AM)
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Big Daddy
Unregistered
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Quote:
better hope cindy has left a good upwelled streak across the central gulf
Only looks like about 1 degree C cooling (at best) based on the buoys I see. could be very bad news for NOLA.
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Lisa NC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
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i was just comparing Charlie's track and ' projected. I remember some of the projected paths for Charlie, are the steering currents now similar to what they were then?
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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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could is the key word hopefully it wont go there or cause severe damage sowhere else although the later, unfortunatly looks likely at this time. It is still to
far out the see where it goes like Jason said earlier look for the trend. People along the Gulf coast need to watch out and be prepared.
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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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well...nothing is ever quite the same. The only possible similarities would be the players are similar: FL High pressure=FL High Pressure, Bonnie=Cindy and the Shortwave trough = Shortwave trough. But the timing is not the same. So the outcome cannot be correlated here.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Thanks for the heads-up on conditions out there, Shawn. My parents picked the best time to take a trip to New Orleans...in the middle of a tropical storm! Lo and behold, they're on the 10th story of a hotel sound asleep. Not what I'd be doing, really, but hopefully things stay reasonable there.
Don't see any reason to go against the , JK, or HF on any of the thinking with , however. I, too, am on the right side of the track guidance and very similar on intensity guidance. I'd trend a tad bit faster early on and a tad bit slower later on. Not sure I can see a major slowdown in the Gulf quite yet, though it's a scenario both to be afraid of and be planning for nonetheless. It's still a tricky forecast, with many players...Cindy's remnants, midlatitude "shortwaves" that come into the southeast, and even small-scale convective complexes that form almost nightly in the central Plains could all play a role in the long-term track of the storm.
(And, if anyone is really interested, I can go into detail about how a larger storm has a greater tendency to move further north...though really, you all probably don't want the full explanation! )
Interesting sidenote: since 1900, we have had only 6 recorded major hurricanes in the Atlantic during the month of July, with only 2 in the satellite era: 1961's Anna and 1996's Bertha. Only one, one of two such storms in 1916, made landfall. All 5 seasons with majors in July were very active storms with a large number of U.S. landfalls. I can't take credit for that research -- one of the researchers at Colorado St., Mark DeMaria, came up with that -- but it's interesting to note nonetheless.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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dem05
User
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Hi Clark,
Actually, I would like to know more about your thoughts on poleward motion. Here to learn too, so I hope you might have some time to post/e-mail your thoughts.
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