Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
Glad to hear you are safe and sound, Frank! Although, I never had any doubt you'd be okay. I'm not sure I want this season to continue.
To all who were in the path of Cindy: I'm happy that all are doing okay and no one (that I've heard yet) got hurt. I also hope that will not give you a double whammy. I wish there was a route out of the GOM. Dang.
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
At Stennis Space Center NASA uses the forecasts for action...
my initial thoughs on is that I just don't think we'll have the same type climatological conditions that saw Charlie take that hard right to the NE and plow through Punta Gorda... my gut feeling, even if the ridge now protecting Fl were to weaken, the system will take a more classical route similar to what Georges, Frederick and took.... the ridge would really have to weaken significantly and you'd have to have upper air dynamics pushing the system off to the NE... of course I could be totally wrong and probably will be but right now everything looks to be setting up for a central or east central Gulf Coast event... as Jason Kelly says, look for the trends in the models, not just one or two runs... you need only to remember what the models did with ... they basically stunk up the place and were way off 5-7 days out and I think only the Canadian was the western outlier and had the system moving towards the Gulf Coast...... anywho what the heck do I know.... my speciality if boarding up windows...
|
Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
|
|
Well said!!!! 
I watch Joe as well, and he is sometimes right on. Just like Nostrodomus, (sp)
If you make enough perdictions, your bound to get some right.
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
I am still not sure if will be a GOM event only.I am still waiting before I say that.There are still things there that can take it more NE.Maybe by Late Thurs. or early Fri I will say it will be an GOM event only,But not yet.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
thanks Colleen, I hope I didn't jinx you with my "I don't think can do a Charlie routine" ..... 
|
Keeneye
Unregistered
|
|
Just my observations on Cindy:
I am in New Orleans and am an untrained observer, but I think Cindy was stronger in the city than , Isadore, Lilly or Bill....at least when you look at tree damage and power outages. Our power was out this AM and they tell me it went out around 330am...still not back yet...that is a record for us. Apparently there were waves of strong winds at around 130am and 330am (I bought earplugs and slept thru like a baby--highly recommend that). There are a few big oak trees down, lots of smaller branches and palm fronds...street littered with leaves and twigs...wind was strong enough to overturn lawn chairs/tables/bbq pits and the like but I still have not seen a reported wind higher than 55. Definitely not a disaster...went to work as usual as we have power...but everyone has commented on the unexpected strength of the storm.
|
StormSurfer
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 11
|
|
Where do they expect Cindy to be by the time is just to the North of Cuba? Ofcourse that's if it takes that track?Would Cindy be already back out into the Atlantic by then?
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
You know what I think? I think that no matter where this storm goes, we're all a little nervous because we sit and talk to people who live all over the GOM and could get hit by ANY of these storms. Factor that into the equation, and maybe we're all a little more anxious than we would be if we didn't come here at all.
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
Let's take a step back here,and look where is now.Forget about the 5 day forcast track.There is no part of Florida that is out of the woods yet.We all know how things can change very quickly.Also if it goes over Cuba(which is likely)anything can happen when a hurricane interacts with land.So if you live anywhere in Florida don't write this off yet.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Wed Jul 06 2005 02:28 PM)
|
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
|
|
We'll see if some of the model runs have been updated in time for the 11AM update. You are right; nobody can write-off any land mass - but trends have a high degree of credibility.
--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
The difference in the models after 60 hurs is that some allow th weakness created by the trough and Cindy to remain and those are the ones allowng more eastern solution; the others reestablish the ridge to the north and east of the system keeping it NW 'rly off the coast of Cuba all the way to land fall.
A System with this potential coming into coastal LA from the SE should present a pretty scary scenario for New Orleans.
--------------------
doug
|
B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 331
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
|
|
I still think the east coast of Florida will be spared a direct hit. Like you say ,when the system interacts with Cuba something may happen. You never know, the storm could get straight under Florida and start moving due north and give the whole peninsula a rude surprise....time will tell......All hands on deck for Florida....Weatherchef
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
Let's remember that the 5 day forcast track has already changed 3 times in a couple of days.First was more east,then alittle more west then a little more west.Who knows what it will be in 2 days.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
|
|
Looks like the 11am Track has been shifted farther eastward, just slightly. Accuweather has also shifted theirs east last time i checked.
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
I will be interested to see what the 11:00am advisory says....should be out shortly now. It's usually on the Sun-Sentinel website earlier than now, but it's not up yet. Maybe putting a lot of thought into that discussion.
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
As of 11:00am is still a TS.Winds are now up to 70mph.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
|
|
Only speaking regarding the track possibility and not intensity, I don't know what anyone else thinks, this really seems to be following 's Track, at least at this point and looking at model runs
--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
Yes,The 5 day forcast track has shifted to the east.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0405P+gif/092623P_sm.gif
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
The NWS in Ruskin (Tampa Bay) just updated the Flood Warning for the local rivers, and I found this statement interesting:
Quote:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST BY FRIDAY AS TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES STEADILY THROUGH THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. WILL EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
Take it however you want, but I don't like the wording of it.
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
dumbo
Unregistered
|
|
What are you guys talking about? The 5 Am had a Pensacola hit and the 11 Am had a Pensacola hit. It didn't shift east.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
