Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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This was out of MLB NWS this morning also
"FRI-SUN...
FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE MOTON OF TC . WHILE THE
OFFICIAL FCST KEEPS THE STORM SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FL PENINSULA...
IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FEEL *AT LEAST* THE PERIPHERAL
EFFECTS...BUT WHICH MAY ALSO INCLUDE OUTER RAINBANDS CONTAINING
TORRENTIAL RAINS AND ISOLD TORNADOES IF THE CENTER PASSES CLOSE
ENOUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. "
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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It does look like an in the rough.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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They have shifted it a bit east...the graphics have not been updated on the site. It's not a HUGE shift, but it is a shift. If the trend continues, it won't be a Pensacola hit in 2 days. We'll just have to wait and see. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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mikeG
Unregistered
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TROPICAL STORM DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005
...................
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE FASTER CONU AND
THE SLOWER FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.
hmm...interesting.....
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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That said Colleen, currently it seems to be heading almost due west. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it doesn't look like its moving at 300 degrees. The hard part is to really locate a center!
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Read the discussion: there is definite uncertainty after 60 hours. The forecast track is a concensus of 5 models three to the right of the track and to to the left.
Tomorrow night into Friday am model runs will pretty well nail it down. three primary factors: strength of the system, speed of the system across Cuba and int the GOM and..reinvigoration of the ridge to the North and East.
This should not be a storm with direct effects on the SE or E coasts of Florida
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doug
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Hurricane Freak
Unregistered
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The key factor here is timing or in other words, the speed of the storm
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John C
Unregistered
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dumbo,
Another way to see the model trends is to look at the past model runs up to the present.
Model Animation
JC
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Yes, it's hard to find the center; right now I'm relying on what the mets are showing as the center on TV. What worries me is the talk of the "high" shifting further east. I'm not making that up, it's in the NWS discussions. The forecast I just got from BayNews9 for Saturday and Sunday was 50% rain and "breezy". I dare say that the local met was also looking a little more concerned than he has been in the last day or so.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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If slows Friday,and the high moves east as they say it will,We could see a dramatic change in the forcast track.Anyhow,By tonight we will have our first hurricane of the season.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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That's pretty cool, John! Where do I find that on this site? You'd think I'd know by now....
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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who knows where it will hit as yet...but it's fun to conjecture. It all depends on the high pressure system....
no feeling yet about . been toooo busy this morning...but one thing I do know....no one can take their eyes off of it. I wonder what the SST's are...
remember Gilbert?....strongest storm ever, I think. Lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin?....at any rate, I say that to say this....If gets strong enough quick enough...I think the big boys and girls tend to go in a more linear path...and are apt to ignore steering currents. Remember, the models do not take into consideration this effect, since there is little understanding of what makes a hurricane go from a 3 to a 4 or 5....
I think I know what makes it do that....
someone's trying to torture us...
It will be interesting to see what the overall timing of the intensification proves to be in relation to the landfall. Andrew blossomed at just the wrong moment...to hit as a category 5. The hurricanes have a time table, and an oscillation, if you will....
now if any of this is wrong, please, I want everyone's input...but this is stuff I have picked up on in the last 10 years ....
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Minor variation over the last 24 hours
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doug
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John C
Unregistered
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On the left menu just click Coordinates
Then the Storm PLOT link...
JC
Edited by MikeC (Wed Jul 06 2005 03:35 PM)
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dumbo
Unregistered
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very minor. To say the track has shifted east is a definite stretch.
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Posts: 184
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All of the Tropical genesis models have hugging or a tad west of the Fl west coast coastline before a panhandle hit...some outliers last night & early this a.m. but all in close agreement now.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Currently he has jogs from a 270dg-300dg overall its been near 285dg. The is out for the 12Z run and it shows a shift to the east with landfall near miami in 72 hours. Although this isnt reliable and I dont think it will hit there, it shows a continued trend to the east by 50-100miles from the 6z. When they dont use the they use the for forecasts at the NWS. I think the is off but dont know how much.
The forecast hasnt changed and is the same as before. The 5pm forecast will be a change cause of the 12Z models unless they show the same as the 0z runs.
I also did a post up on why larger storms dont mean they will pull poleward or create their own Envir. Look at Mitch and Fran ( or was it Felix from dew years back,, I cant remember) that did things different. Mitch went SSW and Fran was soo big that she still couldnt move due west into florida.
Basically its the shape of the RIDGES and the flow around them. The troughs and shortwaves dont really pick up these storms but cut into the ridges and slide them one way or another. So in all, this shortwave coming down with the extended weakness from Cindy will do what to the ridge in shape,,, and where will it slide it?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Yes, indeed they do. It will be an interesting next couple of days. My head hurts from trying to process all the information on here! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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I have heard that once they reach a certain threshold..they "carry" their high pressure counter clockwise ridge with them...
thanks for the info...
Looks west to me...
getting a feeling about New Orleans...cat 4 or 5
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
It does look like an in the rough.
TD#4 AKA passed right through Grenada.... remember destroyed the poor island last year.
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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