ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Yes,this is going to be very interesting the next couple of days.If I lived on the keys,I would be packing right now.Dennis slowed from 20mph yesterday to 15mph at 11:00am today,that COULD BE bad news for S FL.,given the upcoming easterly movement of that high.What to you guys think??
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0405P+gif/092623P_sm.gif
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Mike
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
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Kennedy Space Center uses the Air Force for their hurricane information. The Air Force does work very closely with the on this stuff. The nice thing is that we get the Air Force opinions on the tracks. Usually closer in though to landfall.
Edited by Mike (Wed Jul 06 2005 04:01 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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The new 5 day forcast track now has the whole state of Florida in the "cone". http://www.nbc6.net/weather/4687760/detail.html#
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
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Long time lurker... thought I'd offer my $0.02. I must say that I am slightly worried about the effects of a major central GOM event may have on the oil infrastructure. Having a lot of family in the Kissimmee/St. Cloud area and currently living in Gainesville myself, I certainly do not desire a catastrophic hurricane in Florida. However, I'm more worried about the long term effects a system like this could potentially have on the already steep gas prices if our infrastructure takes significant damage. Indeed, gas prices already appear to be climbing in anticipation of the storm around here. Any thoughts or opinions on this?
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Brad Shumbera
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Cindy has already caused a spike in gas prices. That's the market for you. You can only imagine that will spike even further with .
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Posts: 184
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Sure there could be actual legit effects of a hurricane to cause an increase in prices...also makes a good excuse for them to raise anyway...guarantee that will happen & that the majority of the public will buy it...no pun intended...as well.
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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
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Does anyone here have knowledge regarding the types of conditions that oil rigs, docks, and pipelines can handle when it comes to these storms?
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Brad Shumbera
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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It is also right under the write-up on the main page.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Sorry, East
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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The 5 day cone, which was updated at 11am Wednesday, does not have all of Florida in it.
With you could "see" the path he was going to take. It was very evident on the WV maps/loop at the time that he probably wasn't going to make it as far north as Tampa before crossing the peninsula.
The climatology currently in place isn't exactly the same so a direct comparison between the two situations can't really be made. There is a high sitting next to Florida. It is forecast to dissipate a bit, but like the others have said, it's changing its "shape". How much it changes and/or weakens will play a role in where the northern motion of begins to increase. has moved much further west than north in the last 24hrs(2.1degreesN, 4.9degreesW), and, like usual, it's going to be a waiting game of sorts to see what sort of weather patterns setup for the next few days.
To everyone affected by Cindy, I hope you came through relatively unscathed. I think she got stronger than some thought she would.
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Check the Surf
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Interesting article, not sure if this was the info you were looking for. http://www.sciencedaily.com/upi/index.ph...re-analysis.xml
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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All you have to do is go to this site and click on the map,Sure looks like all of Florida to me. http://www.nbc6.net/weather/4687760/detail.html
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I just watched the ABC Action News here in Tampa and the forecaster gave the best explanation I have heard yet! Here's the major points:
1. The track HAS shifted slightly to the east - at 5:00AM they were showing it going into Mobile. At 11AM, it was Pensacola. He made a point of showing the 5:00am track and comparing it to the 11:00am track.
2. He said that there is a trough moving down from the (what looked to me) part of the west...then he said that if slows down, that trough would push the High Pressure Ridge to the east, allowing to come closer to us.
3. Just like ftlaudbob's post from his local NBC affiliate, the entire state of Florida is now in the cone...this is also different than it was this morning and yesterday.
4. He said: "The continuing trend to the east is something that we all need to pay attention to, so those of you who haven't done so already need to get your hurricane kits prepared."
5. He also said that this track also reminded him of 's track last year and that "I certainly hope that does not happen again."
People have been accused of "wishcasting" here; I am not wishcasting, I'm reporting what I'm hearing from the local mets and I am staying with my stance that if the eastward shift - no matter how minute or small - continues over the next few days, Florida will have a problem on their hands.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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That is actually not new. I try to have fun with this stuff &
I too try to do my own study of what's happening ahead of the storm from the only tools we have actually: PIX from above. I just spent a few minutes on the 8km visible loop and note that the flow ahead of is pretty consistent until about 83w. Then the flow sharply turns north. The flow around the high centered just NE of the penindula is just off the northern cuba coast and it also curves encircling the peninsula...
There is a short wave trough visible with distrubances rapidly digging to the SE through Arkansas and Texas and a point of convergence diagonally across the GOM from the Yucatan into the Florida Panhandle
It looks like these distrubances will get down into the western GOM region ahead of ' emergence into the central GOM, and if so could invigorate the SW-NE flow ahead of it keeping from ever going to far past 83w.
If it stayed as is now...Dennis would track into the panhandle in my opinion.
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doug
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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While it probably doesn't matter, this is not an official map...
http://images.ibsys.com/2005/0706/4687722_400X300.jpg
Remember that the media likes to jump on things.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Wed Jul 06 2005 04:38 PM)
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Quote:
Does anyone here have knowledge regarding the types of conditions that oil rigs, docks, and pipelines can handle when it comes to these storms?
Not sure about the rigs/pipelines in general, but here's an article on the damage done by .
Ivan Oil Rig Damage
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Check the Surf
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Hate to be the bearer of good news, but the UKMET and have shifted west on their 12Z runs. The a shade to the west, the UKMET quite a bit. is about the same. is lost, with the storm showing up in the middle of Florida. looks out to lunch.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Thanks for backing me up Colleen. 
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Lee County EOC has said because SW Florida is in the three-day cone, they are meeting to discuss emergency actions, and to decide if they should activate. Nothing will be announced until Thursday, however.
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