WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Looks like we've got an eye now
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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what do u think cindy will do when it gets back in the atl? and does the wave off africa pose a threat?
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Thats not a eye, just center of circulation,kinda the same though right?
Anyways Ill post my forecast late tonight and repeat it Thursday. Pretty much
ED is thinking the same as I am. This is simular to both and Charlie. I though dont expect a NE turn like Charlie. At same time I dont expect a path as far west as . Think of crossing Cuba between and Charlie, then heading NNW or N thru the eastern gulf. How close to western Florida near Keywest? Tampa? Too early to tell. But I do think Hurricane watches will go up for the Keys tomorrow at 5am.
scottsvb
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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the"eye" feature in that photo is not an eye..the LLC is south and west of that hole you see.
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doug
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Hurricane Freak
Unregistered
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Yep, I can see a small "depression" just a little bit north of the forecasted point 
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LizL
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: St Cloud, Fl
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It comes to St Cloud. I will be ready lol got the cam set up for this one 
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I dunno...looks like some cool SSTs between 30-40 degrees, and its kind of far south. It is impressive though for this early. See if it holds together next day or 2.
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: nsb,fl
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doesnt this look like the hartsfield airport? wonder where they are landing?
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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That last frame looks as though its forming an eye
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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CMC has her as a non-factor, the wave I saw earlier, but so much going on with couldn't multi-task him, the wave and office job LOL. I know it's early, but right now the only model I like from a Tampa/Causeway perspective is the right now. And not liking the early forecast for anyone. I'll be gettin some gasolina tonight for the power
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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schmee
Unregistered
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Hi All,
This is probably a stupid question but I'm wondering when there will be a better idea of where is going -- maybe Saturday?
I know its still too soon to tell and most folks around here say the track is too far west right now so there will be no effects on New Orleans but..
If we do get an evac I will probably go this year -- didn't leave for which I was very glad since we literally got nothing. After Cindy last night though I don't want to see what a big storm will do. I'll have to make plans fairly early with 3 big dogs and a cat.
Hopefully this will be irrelevant to me but I'm still curious on when it looks like we'll have better info
Thanks!
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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Ed's views added scientific support to what I wrote in #38424. It is nice to be in good company.
All those models take the storm between Jamaica and Cuba. If it passes south of the island that will defienitely signal a track shift.
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doug
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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we'll see in the next couple of frames...but it sure looks like an eye is forming
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Without stealing 's thunder, you'll likely see something like that -- projected rainfall amounts -- with the new suite of maps they are working on. I don't think you'll be disappointed!
With regards to an eye -- wouldn't be surprised; recon out there found an eyewall of 30 mi., open on the NW side (not surprising). Also found a pressure of 989mb...suggesting the intensity is about what the has said. Might be a satellite artifact right now, but I imagine we'll start to see one once is done ingesting dry air.
On track uncertainty/certainty: probably by Friday, we'll have a better idea of where it is going. By then, SE US NWS sites should be lauching 6hrly upper-air observations, and Saturday's 12Z model runs should have the upper-air surveillance data from ahead of the storm in them as well (if not another set of runs before then). Just it moving closer to the US should narrow the cone somewhat.
On the African wave: too early to be watching it, in my view, with on our hands (and Cindy still around, dumping a lot of rain and spawning some isolated tornadoes). Waters are warmer than normal out there this time of year, but still a little too shallow with the warmth until you get to about 45-50 W (or stay south of 10 N) for anything to really get going. Worth watching down the line, but not now.
On track shift if south of Jamaica: I wouldn't go so far as to say that, really. Remember what and were forecast to do and did: forecast to cross/move along the north side of the island, yet approached it and were shunted just south of the island. Terrain likely played a role in both cases. However, it did not play a significant role in the final track of the storm, as there were compensating factors in both cases that made up for it. It's something to watch to see if it persists after it passes the island -- assuming it passes south of there, of course -- but nothnig to hang your hat on, in my opinion.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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I think we are on the same page at least early on here.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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StormSurfer
Verified CFHC User
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Didn't even realize that up to now has a very similar track so far to from last year. But I think that track may change in another day or so hopefully.
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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schmee... Let me strongly suggest you register. If you do, people will be able to better know where you are located and to send you private mail with more detailed answers than may be poffered in the forum itself. I get the impression you are in the area affected by Cindy, and if so, I expect you have until Monday or Tuesday morning before you could be affected (given the speed of the storm does not increase too much). Given the time it takes to board up or get supplies (you do have them already, don't you), you might need to make an educated decision about Saturday afternoon or evening about what, when and where. However, be advised that , like all tropical weather, plays by its' rules, not ours so keep alert and prepared to move/make decisions sooner if warranted. Best bet: Get your plans and preparation done NOW. If you need it, you already have it and can concentrate on implementation. If it goes elsewhere, well, it is a long season ahead and I doubt it will go to waste, and if it does turn out to not be needed, go camping somewhere  Then you can munch the non-perishable goodies around the camp-fire in the coolness of Fall weather. Bottom line: This weekend by Saturday you should pretty well know.
Richard
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schmee
Unregistered
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Thanks Richard!
I am registered but having problems logging in -- sorry about that.
Fortunately, I have all my supplies but am more worried about evac this time.
I do realise its all an educated guess at this point but was just wondering when things would get a little more definite.
Thanks to all on this boad as well!
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LizL
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: St Cloud, Fl
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I have almost all of my supplies, expcept for a few more batteries having kids in the house kinda hurts, but i have gas, all allthings i need. got my boards ready just n case , still marked from last yr but never hurts to be over prepared. I hope all the others do the same , just in case we get another one here in st cloud.
P.S. this is what our local tv station has on it about
http://www.wftv.com/weather/4685605/detail.html
Edited by LizL (Wed Jul 06 2005 03:35 PM)
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Ricreig
User
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Thanks Richard!
I am registered but having problems logging in -- sorry about that.
Fortunately, I have all my supplies but am more worried about evac this time.
I do realise its all an educated guess at this point but was just wondering when things would get a little more definite.
Thanks to all on this boad as well!
Then you are way ahead of the game. Evacuating 4 times (mobile home) last year tried my stamina and it is not a decision made lightly. You have a lot of things to consider and you should play some 'what if' games now and plan some likely scenereos. Stuff like CAT 1, direct hit, or Major Direct hit or probable TS winds only, Live on the beach or well inland, structure type and strength and how it fared in previous storms, flood prone or high ground. Expected rainfall...you know, the stuff you need to make decisions. Then, on Saturday, or whenever, you concentrate on your 'triggers' for the various scenereos and act accordingly. Having made the decisions when you had cool head and time to think will be a real asset. Fear and worry induce mistakes that could prove costly, so make the plans early, sit back and keep informed.
Good luck,
Richard
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