FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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is that the big black hole?...just curious 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 331
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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I hope we`re not looking at a comparision map of a hurricane with and Jeanne in the future....Weatherchef
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Let's see what the lat/long difference is over the next 12 hours.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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I believe most of those models were out when they did the 11 AM Forecast. gets the before anyone else. However, models are just that and we all know their limitations. So I am gonna take a wait and see attitude.
Wood floors were just installed in my house, tile guys just finished today, and I am down to trim work and my deck outside being finished. Incase you are wondering, all as a result of the hurricanes last year. Hoping for no repeats, it takes too damn long (so far 11 Months of roof and structure repairs, drywall, new windoes, etc.) to get your life back after one of these, and I have been through 4.. (Andrew, Charlie, Francis, Jeanne)
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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dolfanblondie
Registered User
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Posts: 2
Loc: St Cloud, Florida
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Don't feel bad, my house was condemed. And I am also in Kissimmee.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 428
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Here's a historical perspective on the track of July storms tracking within 300 miles of ' location.
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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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So it seems climatology would favor a more westward track, as i think Clark already said. However, none of those systems were Major Hurricanes, so i think climatology is out the window.
And still a TS at 5pm winds DOWN to 65
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bob895
Unregistered
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I have read on Accuweather that could maybe be a Category 4 by the time it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.... could this one go Cat 5 at landfall???
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Clark - one of the missing elements in reporting about approaching 'cains last year was the heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorm probability.
This is along the lines, though not specific to flooding or rain, BUT, the graphics at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/160819.shtml?tswind120?large
are very interesting. Colleen...you need to look at this as you are further west than I am.
Richard
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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is there anyplace we can get the Florida State Universities Superensamble Model? Can't find it on the web.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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You won't. Only the and certain people see it.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Just to let everyone know, 5pm is out
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 428
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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But these GOM storms have a tendancy to weaken as they are about to make landfall.
Go figure.
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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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bob895
Unregistered
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Dennis down to 65mph....
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 428
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Due to the dry air from Hispaniola, no doubt.
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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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first, anyone have any theories as to why 's winds are DOWN at this advisory even though the satellite appearance looks like a hurricane and the pressure is down to 987?
second--anyone other than me think Cindy will be reclassified a hurricane after the season, like 2003's Claudette (while in the Caribbean) and Erika, and last year's Gaston?
also, is reminding me so much of last year, that i have accidentally called it a few times today
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Quote:
I have read on Accuweather that could maybe be a Category 4 by the time it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.... could this one go Cat 5 at landfall???
It's way too early to forecast what the intensity could be at landfall. Especially since it hasn't even reached Cat 1status.
Looking at the forecast plots from the 5am adv. this morning. Seems like the storm has tracked just a bit further west than was even forecast then. Earlier it looks to have been forecast to cross 16N right around 72W, and here it is at 72.5W. Not a big difference, but something I like keeping an eye on.
Also, T.S. force winds have gone from 85mi to 100mi outward from the center.
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Check the Surf
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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When do they start adding data from the recon's into the models? Anyone have a clue when this will be done ?
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Posts: 184
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Recon is still in .
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Many things could affect the winds. Right now, it is probably while it organzies itself. This storm needs to tighten up a bit plus proximity to land and some dry air will have an affect too.
I am in Bastardi's camp on this one. I think will ultimately be a west of 90 event. When the Bermuda high brings as oppressive a level of heat to Florida that it has been this week, it usually does not easily fade or shift quickly. The models also seem to be moving toward that conclusion too. I think once is past Jamacia, we will start to find out.
I think will hut Cuba near 84W-85W. I just don't see him making a quicker turn.
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