ShanaTX
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Loc: Texas
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EEP!
At that size we'll see feeder bands in Austin if is anywhere near LA...
Thanks for the visual ... that makes it easier to comprehend...
Edited by ShanaTX (Thu Jul 07 2005 06:02 AM)
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Guest
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First thing first Hurricane Will be a deadly menace no doubt the look of the Hurricane now on satellite has cat4 wriitten all over it perfect out flow in all Quadrants. As for the people who belive S FL is still at risk is absurd. Even though Hurricanes are erradict it seems a dead lock it will end up in the central gulf by saturday. Their is a .0000000001% chance its goiong to make a freak move on to S. FL. I understand the panic in some areas like Punta Gorda., But other than that S. FL was unscaved by the hurricanes last year so there is no need for panic thinking that the hurricane going to make a right or go str north towards us. The people who need to be worried are the people in pensacola/ mobile area, they have a reason to panic especially after and all the forcast tracks.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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From the pages.
Average Errors listed in nautical miles (nm.) 2000-2004
120 hours 273.8nm
96 hours 208.0nm
72 hours 166.9nm
48 hours 113.3nm
36 hours 88.0nm
24 hours 63.0nm
12 hours 36.3nm
00 hours 6.8nm
This is only to give you an idea of how narrow, or wide the "Cone of Certainty" is.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml?
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Very interesting data on those charts...as expected, accuracy of 96-120 hour forecasts has fluctuated around the same range as that of 72 hour forecasts from 10 years ago. That's a nice testament to the improved modeling systems that have come up in the last decade.
Though, and I say this with tongue firmly planted in cheek, I noted that did NOT have a good year last year with their long term forecasts (IE, 72, 96, and 120), which makes sense when you recall the "confusion" of forecasting Chartey, , and Jeanne last year.
Still, so long as you keep in mind the obvious errors, it's comforting to see how far the has come in the last 10 years. We can only hope the accuracy continues to linearly (exponentially?) improve as time goes on, though we're bound to hit a wall soon in terms of what can be done with current computing power...
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Londovir
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http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fxus10.KWNH.html
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HanKFranK
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dennis might dodge at the last minute like and , but it looks like it wont miss jamaica right now. pressure has been falling ~1.5mb an hr. if it gets there in the early afternoon, that'll put it around 957mb.. with a continuous steady fall. tough day ahead for that island. if jamaica takes the storm down a notch, the forecast track will shift west.. east if it bypasses north (looking unlikely right now).
u.s. landfall intensity is tricky, since these things like to weaken before coming in. lots of the globals don't know what to do with it after a day inland, so it may end up stalling in the mid mississippi valley over to oklahoma or something and raining like hell all week. keep that scenario in mind if you're inland.
cindy is spawning some severe weather here and there and having it's center elongate.. moving too quickly to cause catastrophic rains, perhaps. the eastern foothills of the blue ridge look to get the worst of it. after cindy moves off the NE coast models show it entraining in this deep layer cold low that spawns near the canadian maritimes and drops sw towards the northeast u.s. coastal waters.. that is an interesting looking feature. it may be a summertime noreaster in store for folks up there.. going to keep an eye on how far south models are progging it since it's that time of year.
one other feature.. the wave that came off africa wed. is freakin huge. it looks like just a big pulse on the monsoon trough, and its leading edge is sweeping a huge flare of convection west along the . it isn't coherent.. but something that energetic will need to be watched as it moves west. got to see how much convection persists back near the actual wave. the 'flare' it sent out may active the weak waves ahead of it, cause them to perk up a little. low to nil probability of development out there in the near term, though.
HF 0716z07july
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Clark
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I'd like to reiterate what Jason said: while short-term wobbles may be very important right near landfall, the difference between going north or south of Jamaica likely will not play a large role in determining the final landfall position of this storm.
That said, I think that unless the brief wobble on the latest IR frames become more of a pronounced movement, will pass south of Jamaica by a short distance on Thursday. This will put the island, however, in the northern half of the storm, featuring some of the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall amounts out of the storm. It's certainly not a pleasant scenario, but perhaps slightly better than a direct hit. The upper-level flow pattern is such that the storm should continue on a heading right around WNW for the next day to two days, possibly clipping the coast of Jamaica were it not for terrain effects that seem to take hold as it nears the island. There's still a chance of it moving over the west side of the island, but I do feel that the storm will largely pass south of Jamaica.
The eyewall is becoming better defined on satellite imagery and, barring a landfall, this could be the beginning parts of a period of rapid intensification of the storm. The upper-level conditions are favorable, including having an upper-low well to the east to enhance outflow, and water temperatures are certainly warm. Dry air is negligible now that it has passed Hispaniola and the storm is sufficiently well organized to be able to tap into the favorable conditions. Major hurricane status is not out of the realm of possibility for late Thursday, assuming current trends hold and the storm stays offshore. More likely, something around 100-105mph by late tonight will be felt along the Jamaican shore.
Still feel the track out to day 5 is a good forecast at this point in time. I will be interested to see the 06Z and 12Z runs of the models, however, as they will be the first ones to incorporate upper-air data from the periphery of the storm. had one of the guys in the plane on the phone earlier tonight, but it was a botched interview due to the fact that they still believed he was in the storm despite him saying otherwise. Nevertheless, those runs -- especially the 12Z set -- should have that data incorporated within them.
I don't expect any drastic changes, unless the current strength of the ridge is being under- or overestimated. If the latter is true, the tracks could be shifted left...if the former is true, they could be shifted right. I don't think they sampled the current conditions near Florida or over the south-central US, however, so that data will be limited to the US upper-air network and satellite observations; thus, I don't expect many changes to come out of the new runs...but it will help to firm up the synoptic reasoning for whatever track is forecast.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Clark
Meteorologist
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MapMaster -- correct, they are two very different entities. The is a dynamical model that actually forecasts the conditions; the Superensemble takes output from other dynamical models and applies various statistical techniques to (usually) improve upon its output.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon is airborne. They should have an Vortex update within two hours.
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geekicane
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So for the interested layman: what contingencies/factors will either limit or promote to 3 or beyond status. Let's face it. This thing will hit the continental US, but what I'm interested in is hearing professionals and autodidacts discuss the various factors that go into intensity forecasts. The fact that intensity relates in a non-linear way to damage, loss of life etc seems just as important as divining the exact trajectory of this kind of storm.
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Clark
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Hurricane intensity change is composed of external factors, many of which we have a handle upon, and internal factors, many of which we do not have a handle upon.
Start with the internal factors: eyewall replacement cycles (which we can see happening, but cannot predict; generally, as an eye tightens, the storm strengthens, only to weaken as it begins to replace itself), inner-core dynamics (such as vortex Rossby waves, the breakdown of the eye into the mesovortices seen with Isabel and other storms, and so on), convective hot towers and their distributions (can enhance a storm's winds & impacts locally for short periods of time, but communicate their energy on longer time scales towards the storm, both negatively and positively), the efficiency of the storm, and other such factors. We can analyze them after the fact, but don't know enough about them and their impact upon intensity change to accurately quantify them. We do know, however, that they likely play a substantial role in major hurricanes (in particular).
Then you have external factors: upper-level conditions (whether shear, temperatures aloft -- goes into maximum potential intensity, or the position of upper lows to enhance outflow/provide a means of enhancing a storm's secondary circulation...a fancy way of saying enhance the inflow and outflow and thus enhance the storm), sea surface & near-surface temperatures, interaction with land masses, dry air in the atmosphere becoming entrained into the system, gravity wave propogation, any sort of longer-term climatological factors that may influence the storm, and so on.
In general, warm ocean temperatures, little shear but a means of ventilating the storm system, little interaction with land, and no dry air (dry air is bad -- helps to increase the potential for downdrafts in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, leading to convection dying out and a cut off of the means of energizing the storm) are all favorable, with the opposite being unfavorable. Amongst the inner-core factors, a contracting eyewall is one of the better-known signs of an intensifying storm, whereas the completion of such a cycle is a sign of (usually) temporary weakening.
I think that about covers them all. It'll be interesting to see where goes from here, both track- and intensity-wise, particularly with many of the parameters for sustained intensification present within its environment. I don't have the list of the 7 rapid intensification parameters off-hand, but most of them do deal with many of the factors mentioned above, plus what the storm is already doing.
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geekicane
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Thanks for the insights--although I have to admit I only understood a bit of the technical language. Perhaps I can ask a few questions about the particulars later. Let me put this a different way. In the case of storms that "blew up" suddenly such as Andrew or Charlie--before landfall--did mets figure out ex post facto what led to such events? What I'm trying to figure out is why intensity forecasts lag behind even the the tricky forecasts for landfalls.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon found pressure down to 970mb.
No indication of an Eye. NA for 'L' and 'M'.
Center temperatures are up to 15 C=59 F
MAX flight level wind, 87kt N QUAD at 07:59:10Z
this is the flight level wind and will give a surface wind in the next Advisory.
STRONG BANDING AROUND CENTER NE TO SW
This could be an eyewall replacement cycle or any number of things.
Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 07 2005 08:39 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 87 KNOTS AT
FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 970 MB. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCDAT4.0507070839
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
...AND COULD BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE
TIME IT REACHES JAMAICA LATER TODAY.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCPAT4.0507070839
Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 07 2005 08:47 AM)
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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The 05:00 is just out:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 070839
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AND AN
EYE HAS BEEN OBSERVED INTERMITTENTLY ON IR IMAGES. THE OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IT IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THIS IS NOT VERY COMMON
FOR CYCLONES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...DUE TO COMMON INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-OCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
WEAKER THAN NORMAL. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 AND 5.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 87 KNOTS AT
FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 970 MB. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OCEAN IN THIS
REGION HAS A VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT AND WITH THE PREVAILING LOW
WIND SHEAR...DENNIS COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 100 TO 105
KNOT WINDS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE LATEST
GFDL DOES NOT INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS
RUN BECAUSE IT KEEPS THE CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE OVER CUBA.
THE MOTION OF CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/13
AND THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD...
ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...
BRINGING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS
AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0900Z 17.0N 74.6W 80 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 18.1N 76.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 20.0N 79.0W 100 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.6N 81.5W 105 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 23.5N 83.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 27.5N 86.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 32.0N 88.5W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 12/0600Z 36.1N 90.5W 40 KT...INLAND
$$
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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IR indicates the SW Quadrant to be very impressive. Any comments on this as to intensification?
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Hurricane_Expert
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probably will become more intenses 
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danielw
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Quote:
IR indicates the SW Quadrant to be very impressive. Any comments on this as to intensification?
I'm not sure I see what you are refering to in the SW Quadrant. (Looking back. I see 2 round convective areas in the SW Quadrant)
What I did notice was the build up around the eye. Which wasn't as obvious at 0645Z.
At 0845Z there is what appear to be a dome of clouds over the center with an eye in the middle. A full wrap-a-round of the 'eyewall' doesn't appear complete. As the thickness of the wall-like structure is diminished from due East clockwise through SSW.
http://vesta.cira.colostate.edu/rmtc/448.JPG
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Hey everyone, made it through the night with about 3 hours sleep here in Atlanta and the damage around here is pretty extensive. The hardest hit area is Henry Co. and the Peachtree City-Hampton area. The most damaged area is Atlanta Motor Speedway where the condo/office tower was severely damaged and as Ed Clark GM of AMS was talking about on TV earlier, damage estimates could reach $25-40 million dollars just at AMS alone. Once the sun rises they will be able to assess the damage to the condos as well as the track as well.
Rainfall totals are pretty much along the lines of 3-6 inches with Hartsfield-Jackson International recieving 5.14" in the space of about 3 hours.
Unfortunately there have been two more deaths that will be attributed to Cindy, a teenager who was wakeboarding in the flood waters in Peachtree City was swept into a culvert and is missing and presumed dead as well as a fireman in an Atlanta suburb was killed while responding to a call.
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Now reporting a closed 20nm eye.
"Eyewall ragged around the center"
Pressure down to 968mb.
For full breakdown of report see the Recon Info side bar at the top left side of this page.
That would be a 2mb drop in 1 hour and 37 minutes. Between center fix times of 08:02Z and 09:39Z.
Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 07 2005 10:13 AM)
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