doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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On its current path would pass just east and North of Jamaica and strike Cuba east of Isle of Youth and south of Havana...this is a little east of the model projections. I think the motion is more north than anticipated.
As intensifies, it appears to be a size storm. It could lose much of what is lagging behind it to the NE as far as coverage.
The 12Z runs will be very interesting today
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doug
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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What a great post Clark! You really should become a professor, rather than just a researcher.... You know you can do both, right??
Took a look at radar this morning.... that thing is huge! But comparing it to the 5AM forecast plot concerns me.... If you look at the 3-day forecast from 5 AM, it seems the initial motion is more NW than what is actually occurring. I see WNW in the IR radar (no vis now, oh well). My thoughts are that the more western the movement, the more west the models may shift...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Could some one please give me a working satellite link. The ones I have are showing pictures from July 4th and fifth!!
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
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Quote:
Could some one please give me a working satellite link. The ones I have are showing pictures from July 4th and fifth!!
Front page for Monterey Satellite Meteorolgy: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat_products.html. Their Tropical Cyclones page is at http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html.
There are definately lots of other sources. Hope this helps a little.
Jax Chris
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
Could some one please give me a working satellite link. The ones I have are showing pictures from July 4th and fifth!!
You may have to reload the page. For instance, if I pull up the page, I'll find info on tropical depression three, if I don't reload. I know it's what is in the cache, but it never happened before when I had dial-up...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Looks to me to be a turn to the NW occurring. Surprised to still see the Canadian model's path did not shift west (left) last nite! Maybe Ed is correct with his projection yesreday! Cheers!!
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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
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Quote:
I know if a storm comes in, like did, the surge will be to the south (speaking of Charlotte/Lee County area where I live). I know we'll flood here in Cat 1 or 2 coming in. But it's frustrating to not have access to what a hurricane does when it rides up along the coast.
Not sure if this is exactly what you're looking for or not, but a quick Google finds the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council maps page (http://www.swfrpc.org/maps.htm), which has surge maps for hurricanes entering, exiting and paralleling the coast for Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee and Collier counties in Florida.
Jax Chris
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Thank you .
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Horrible
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doug
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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On a more mundane,but still serious subject. todays WVloop is giving credence to yesterday's solution.
I think the trough in the western GOM has advanced further than the other models anticipated and and the "soft spot" for the storm coming off Cuba is closer to the west coast of Florida...still off shore but not at 85w either.
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doug
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Lovely (sarcasm)... up to 105 now!!! This thing will be cat 3 in no time...
I also see a little NW movement in the last couple frames of the IR... but, it isn't enough for me to believe it's true motion yet. I'll keep watching...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Thu Jul 07 2005 11:58 AM)
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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DENNIS WOBBLED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...16 KM/HR...OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR
13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
Looking at the loop you can see where it looks as if it has stepped outside of his track.
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GERRYL
Unregistered
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The latest satellite loop indicates a true NNW wobble.
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GERRYL
Unregistered
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Also, if you notice in the latest images, Jamica will not see the eyewall of the storm, it will unexpextedly pass north of the island.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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What does that mean in terms of the east-west modeling? There was a lot of discussion about that early on with some discrediting the theory that it would matter in the ultimate track.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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Overlay the tropical forecast pts on the visible loop and you can clearly see the storm is beginning to move north of the forcast track. Is this a true turn, or just a wobble? I guess time will tell.
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XLM
Unregistered
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Looks like the Bermuda High is weaker than predicted.....I live in NO, and a CAT4 hurricane will be a REAL DISASTER, because of our flooding problems
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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I believe a Cat 4 hurrican in any area would be a real disaster. I live in Charleston and have seen what a Cat 4 can do. I pray for anyone in the path of a major storm.
How far out do hurricane force winds extend on this storm?
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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25 miles as of last update...
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Thu Jul 07 2005 12:24 PM)
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GERRYL
Unregistered
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There may be some good in this. If the current movement continues, then the eye of the storm will pass over more rugged terrain in central Cuba, as compared to the flat terrain in western Cuba. That could possibly weaken the storm.
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