Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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I'm sure that nothing will change track wise, unless this wobble become more consistant. I was just listening to FOX News on the radio, they are telling Central Florida that they are in the clear, with nothing to worry about.
My thought is that this statement is a little premature. In my 20 years of living in Florida, the only thing you can count on when it comes to Hurricanes is....
DON'T! It's not over untill its on shore and even then it's NOT necessarily over. 
Didn't do a stroll around the perverbal block. 
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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right, it is just a wobble. the only thing that has really changed is that is feeling the effects of mountainous island terrain.. something it previously hadn't. this may be the start of one of those type of track jerks and made around jamaica. neither of those did much to alter the future track of either storm. one thing that has changed overnight is that guidance has shifted back to the right side.. but it's pretty much staying within the envelope that has existed all along. the major model members are staying close, keeping the track over western cuba and along a 300 mile stretch of coast centered near mobile. the storm may be having its organization process staggered this morning as well, since the eyespot overnight has blinked out and the convective signature on IR is less defined. it's probably about as intense as the is calling it.. concur that it may get to a low-end 3 as it grazes or passes over jamaica.
the number of model members that stalls over the mid-mississippi valley mid-late next week also troubles me. if slows down and meanders once onshore it will present a tremendous flood threat.
model output and african wave appearances make me think another tropical cyclone will try to organize east of the islands over the next week, also. attention will be glued to regardless.
HF 1335z07july
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ronnie_b
Unregistered
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Quote:
I'm sure that nothing will change track wise, unless this wobble become more consistant. I was just listening to FOX News on the radio, they are telling Central Florida that they are in the clear, with nothing to worry about.
My thought is that this statement is a little premature. In my 20 years of living in Florida, the only thing you can count on when it comes to Hurricanes is....
DON'T! It's not over untill its on shore and even then it's NOT necessarily over.
Didn't do a stroll around the perverbal block.
As usual the media can't be trusted. I took a galnce at this mornings models..there HAS definitely been a shift to the right (east). The 06Z had NO as ground zero yesterday but now has Pannma City FL..looks like a shift east of about 200 miles. The 00Z canadian and are both very close to the west coast of Florida, with the model actually taking the storm inland along the peninsula..If current trends continue, I think a lot of people will be surprised on the west coast of FL
Let's be a little nicer towards the news media next time...we aren't ALL bad....JK
Edited by wxman007 (Thu Jul 07 2005 12:46 PM)
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Kruz
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
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[I'm on the west coast and you get bet I am already starting to batten down the hatches!! Started yesterday an will work towards an ultimate goal of being seure by Saturday. I just don't trust anything once it gets into the Gulf.
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Dunnellon, FL
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Bev
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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I have my own non-technical theory over the lag in intensity forecasting. Avoiding widespread panic is a major factor in determining intensity forecast. I believe raw data is virtually ignored at times in favor of "keeping the peace."
While they urge calm, evacuation, etc. They don't necessarily like to advise us that a cat 2 is likely to become a cat 4 within a couple of hours. I don't believe this affects the trajectory forecast, but do believe in greatly impacts the official intensity forecasts.
This is strictly my opinion after having watched the news media and compared it to the actual raw data on hurricanes since 1992. They often don't match up.
-Bev
Quote:
<snip>... In the case of storms that "blew up" suddenly such as Andrew or Charlie--before landfall--did mets figure out ex post facto what led to such events? What I'm trying to figure out is why intensity forecasts lag behind even the the tricky forecasts for landfalls.
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Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Its best to getter done. Better safe than sorry the old addage goes...Weatherchef
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Johns Island, SC
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Let's be a little nicer towards the news media next time...we aren't ALL bad....JK
We don't blame you, we just blame those "Chamber of Commerce" forcasts!
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twizted sizter
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I believe there was mention yesterday that the meso models were doing a much better job of picking up the fact that the high would weaken more & the ridge would be further south...which would push further east...how far...who knows?!
CMC & really haven't strayed by too much thruout their runs.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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I dont understand why people keep saying that this NW path is unexpected.... it wobbled alittle west yesterday and now NW. Overall show me a global model that showed moving south or over jamaica? Its on track. There will be wobbles and the exact path isnt as smooth as the models show.
Now where it ends up is another question. My landfall forecast will be around 1pm eastern and is still looking at western florida,, Tampa? Panama City Beach? will pin it down later.
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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CMC & really haven't strayed by too much thruout their runs.
and neither has the ... which tracks to the west. This leads us to a very uneasy conclusion: We don't know what will happen. 
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Thu Jul 07 2005 01:05 PM)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I agree. Many variables, such as climatology, speed,water surface temperature, sheering (or lack thereof) troughs, and ridges all are variables that computer models try to measure and extrapolate based on all current known facts. I have more respect for the to interpret these models and have no reason to doubt their forecasted path-however, with that said- a hurricane can still surprise us where it will ultimately make landfall. 
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
Is that the eye just now crossing 75W ??
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Dumbo
Unregistered
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Eye now visible on Gitmo Radar. Currently shooting the gap between Haiti and Jamaica moving WNW...maybe a wobble west recently.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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I wonder what the emergency managment folks in Monroe County Florida (Keys) are doing today? I slight move to the East of track will bring dangerous conditins over the Key West area.
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Dougyd
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Sanibel
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All of the recently updated models have shifted to the east - getting close to the peninsula.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I still do not know what he will do,same as yesterday.Maybe late tonight or Friday will make it clearer.He looks good this morning,would not want to be in the path of this one.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Don't know about their EOC but some of their hospitalty establishments are still encouraging people to come...neighbor lft this a.m. for Big Pine...manager said to come...no worries?...no refunds this close...crazy if you ask me...that place is a nightmare to evac...been there, done that.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Loc:
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I agree, the Keys are a bear to evacuate. It's always a tough call for the Emergency Management folks.
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ronnie_b
Unregistered
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Quote:
CMC & really haven't strayed by too much thruout their runs.
and neither has the ... which tracks to the west. This leads us to a very uneasy conclusion: We don't know what will happen.
Actually the 06Z HAS SHIFTED to the EAST from yesterday...almost 150 miles..24 hours ago both the and UKMET had going into Mobile-NO area..both taking the storm toward the western end of Cuba & up the central Gulf..today, the is trending east as well as with the UKMET the odd west model..this is very disturbing for me on the west coast (Hernando Bch) of FL
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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It did just take it's biggest jog north,but I do know about jogs.The next two updates will be very important,will it continue this northern movement?????
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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