Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Southern, I know you asked yesterday but News Channel 8 Steve Jerve (spelling) is the most reliable in my book. I watched him during Charlie until my power went out and he was blow by blow city by city and actually at times, street by street when it came down to bad weather, winds, hail, funnel clouds, etc. I trust them and they are very professional.
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ronnie_b
Unregistered
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Quote:
I agree, the Keys are a bear to evacuate. It's always a tough call for the Emergency Management folks.
Well, if you believe the 00Z run of the , the lower keys will experience CAT 3 winds by 8 PM Friday EDT. I think very soon, a Hurricane Watch will be needed for the lower and middle keys with evacuation orders following soon thereafter
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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models I see are still centered on a Northern Gulf hit. UKMET still goes west to LA, goes east to PCB area and the is right up the middle generally (a little east) where the official track is now. I would look for a slight move east of the track at 11AM, but not very far.
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Truthfully, the is doing pretty well with the track, and it should continue to be a good one. I don't think it will vary drastically from what the forecast track is now, 11AM should be interesting, though, probably a tad east at the longest ranges. The satellite link I've got on the main page article shows it's a bit north of the forecasted track, though. Which is why I think 11AM will be interesting.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Not to contradict HankFrank, who is more knowledable than I, but I disagree this is a correction around Jamaica...something else is happening
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doug
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Posts: 184
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Like what?
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Doug,
Please go on,I would be interested in what you think maybe happening.I think I may know,But I am holding back right now.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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GERRYL
Unregistered
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web page
ya all take a look at this. it just came out
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Obviously a wobble back west the last few hours. Agree with Mike. doing a great job thusfar and have no reason to disagree with their track. Along with Mike, I do expect a small shift east at 11AM, but they could keep the track the same and wait for consistency in the models.
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Goodness, looks like some of us need some coffee this morning.
I am feeling better about this storm as far as it not heading in our direction. Even though, I still have that "not-so-good" feeling in my tummy. I think because I lived in Pensacola, my heart is still there.
Those of you along the Southern Gulf States, you guys need a break. A nice long break. I sure wish there was something I could do, but know that a gal in Winter Haven is hoping for a miracle for you guys.
The I-10 bridge connecting Santa Rosa and Escambia County is still out?? I am coming that way in a month or so for a baby shower and looks like I may need to find out how to get to P'cola by a different road. Ouch.
Hang in there guys if you get .
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jth
Storm Tracker
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That's the , not the superensemble and it has been out for quite a while. Has had an east bias all along.
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Orlando, FL
Unregistered
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By these new models, I would say that the west coast of Florida isn't totally out of the woods yet.
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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Quote:
I am coming that way in a month or so for a baby shower and looks like I may need to find out how to get to P'cola by a different road. Ouch.
Given our recent craziness maybe you should say you are *planning* on going out there 
I really hate this hurry up and wait that we have to do but I think I still hate the term "hunker down" even more. I pray for the safety of everyone in it's path. We are fortunate we can evacuate to another state. Jamaicans can't go anywhere.
Once again, for the first of many times this season, thanx to all who make this forum what it is.
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Man, I hope that track is way off! I mean the peninsula of Fla first would get hammered and then Atlanta (sigh).
What we need is for the Georgia House and State Senate as well as Congress just to have their sessions now at Key West, and the hot air alone could send out into the Atlantic to be a fish spinner......
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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From 8AM yesterday to 8AM today moved 2.3N and 4.1W. Much more west than north. However, from 5AM-8AM he's moved just a bit more north than west(.5N/.3W). Checking the loops it seems that instead of a deliberate movement to the north it was more of a stairstep motion.
I'm sure the models will continue to "move" throughout the day. Like was said before, Thursday into Friday will make the picture a little clearer, but that doesn't mean any type of certain landfall point will be nailed down. Just that some will have a higher probability than others.
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Check the Surf
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Orlando, FL
Unregistered
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Hm.. I think I'm going to fill up my five gallon gas tanks for my generator.. just in case.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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With the strong blowups, like you mention with either Andrew or (another case is Opal in 1995), usually the cause is determined, though maybe not for several years. It may also be a multitude of causes, all interrelated, leading to deep intensification. With Andrew and , both small storms, they reacted very violently to favorable external forcing, spinning up in a rapid period of time. The exact causes, however, still remains up for debate with . Andrew is a bit more straightforward, with very favorable atmospheric conditions (internal factors not withstanding), but more effort has been focused on determining its actual intensity -- cat 4 or 5 -- versus on researching the storm itself.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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What we need is for the Georgia House and State Senate as well as Congress just to have their sessions now at Key West, and the hot air alone could send out into the Atlantic to be a fish spinner......
...ok, that made me laugh. 
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Thu Jul 07 2005 02:28 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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GuppieGrouper -- for the U.S., that is correct, as many have been stating all along. But, for Jamaica, wobbles are critically important as the storm nears the island. It kept up that NW wobble that I mentioned from last night and looks like it might pass just north of the island; all it took for that is a small little jog north, just like 's jog east last year.
They become important if they persist for a long period of time or if they occur right before landfall. Otherwise, usually they just average out.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Are you sticking to a PCB or east hit....What about the Super has it's track changed?
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