Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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It's only a bias if it doesn't verify and the storm comes in further west! 
It has been on the right side of the guidance, only matched by the Canadian model, but for three straight runs of both models now, they have been consistant to within ~25 miles on a track, the Canadian up the west coast and the MM5 to the St. George Island area. We included the bogus vortex in the model for last night to improve its initial representation; it brought it to ~950mb at landfall just southwest of Tallahassee, something that would prove to be the ultimate disaster scenario for this region.
I will try to update on the current status of the storm in a couple of hours; all of my satellite imagery is either old (NASA's servers must be down) or not loading (NHC is probably getting slammed), so I'm not really in a position to comment. Let's see where the rest of the 6z and all of the 12Z models go with this thing...we might be able to narrow something down a bit further if trends continue.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
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Can't really comment on the Superensemble; generally the best representation of it is given by the official track, so if you are interested in that, watch the official track and 6hrly discussions for anything there.
Our is sticking to its guns, shifting ever-so-slightly east in this morning's run. I'm still in line with the general thinking on this storm -- the right side of the model guidance is more likely to see this storm than anything else. I haven't narrowed down the overall cone, however, to anything narrower than central Louisiana to Tamp; that may change later today, including including more of the west Florida coast of the guidance still indicates and the observations still suggest a more easterly track.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Orlando, FL
Unregistered
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11 a.m Forcast Advisory, Hurricane watchs up for the Florida Keys and Florida bay. Winds at 90kts.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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When I first started watching the hurricanes....wobbles would get me excited...now, with experience, I have found they all tend to do that...I guess a good analogy is a sailboat...tacking left, then right....then left...
at any rate, usually when a hurricane is changing it's general path...a slowdown of some magnitude occurs.
look at the overall path..as indicated by the ...and and don't get excited about every thirty minute frame showing the eye...
it's gonna be a bad one
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Orlando, FL
Unregistered
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And tropical storm watches out for the entire southern peninsula.
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Hurricane force winds now extend outward up to 45 miles, with tropical storm force winds 125 miles out. I am a bit concerned with some of these massive outer rainbands producing severe weather over the peninsula.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Thu Jul 07 2005 02:44 PM)
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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I try , I try....
On a more serious note, check out this photo from 11Alive.com here in Atlanta from the start/finish line at Atlanta Motor Speedway from this morning.
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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Inglis ,Fl
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tropical storm force winds extend outward up tp 140 miles from the center
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XLM
Unregistered
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Can you guys give us a link to the 11 am discussion?
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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Quote:
Goodness, looks like some of us need some coffee this morning.
I am feeling better about this storm as far as it not heading in our direction. Even though, I still have that "not-so-good" feeling in my tummy. I think because I lived in Pensacola, my heart is still there.
Those of you along the Southern Gulf States, you guys need a break. A nice long break. I sure wish there was something I could do, but know that a gal in Winter Haven is hoping for a miracle for you guys.
The I-10 bridge connecting Santa Rosa and Escambia County is still out?? I am coming that way in a month or so for a baby shower and looks like I may need to find out how to get to P'cola by a different road. Ouch.
Hang in there guys if you get .
Going west the bridge is fine but when you go east expect traffic backup because I-10 goes to 1 lane as you get close to the bay. It is about an hour delay in traffic moving roughly about 15 mph. I have travelled back to Mobile 7 tmes since Jan 05 and each time I cant stand going across that bridge. It is scary to me.
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Track did shift slightly east. Still has landfall around Pensacola....again......Little surprised at the initial motion given the west jog recently, but I will defer to the experts. I am sticking to my guns for a Destin Landfall.. Also, I believe the landfall may have been move up a bit from previous projections.
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Orlando, FL
Unregistered
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/071431.shtml
11 a.m. forcast advisory
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Thanks Southern
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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well the past couple days the percentage of tampa being hit has increased steadily....first it was 5 , 7, 10 and now we are at a total of 18....i think im gonna start getting ready.... 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Lysis
User
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Loc: Hong Kong
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Well, that is because the cyclone is tracking closer to you.
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cheers
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ronnie_b
Unregistered
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Quote:
And tropical storm watches out for the entire southern peninsula.
From the Miami NWS office:
HOWEVER...SOME
HEADLINES WILL BE FORTHCOMING AS TPC HAS INDICATED THEY WILL BE
POSTING A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES
(MIAMI-DADE...MAINLANLD MONROE...AND W COLLIER COUNTIES) AND THIS
WILL BE DONE ON THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST POSTS BEFORE UPDATING.
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TROPICAL STORM WATCH E MIAMI-DADE......MAINLAND MONROE...AND
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTIES.
AM...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH
INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALL ZONES.
looks like Hurricane Watch soon for the lower & middle keys also
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Orlando, FL
Unregistered
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Hope this isn't the hurricane Tampa didn't get since turned east early. 
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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i couldnt agree with you more....i had a really strange dream last night...and thanks to being part of this site my family and i were safe....i have that bad feeling that its gonna take a turn...dont ask me why but i feel sick to my stomach that it is....
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Premonitions, eh?
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cheers
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Posts: 184
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UKMET seems to be the outlier with a further west landfall...the others are too close not to notice...interesting to see future runs.
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