Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I have to agree with everyone about Steve Jerve. That guy must have stayed up for 72 hours straight with naps in between. He also has a good, strong head on his shoulders and doesn't overhype, underhype -- he just tells it like he sees it. When I had to listen on the radio last year because we had no cable, his demeanor was the most calming.
Dennis Philips can kiss my grits. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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Thanks so much for the info.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Brett -- something like the is a mesoscale model, whichever flavor of the you prefer. The globals are the , , , UKMET, and so on. The statistical models take their output and modify it, whether as a simple mean or by applying some sort of regression/minimization technique to it, and include the Superensemble and the various ensemble means.
I'm just primarily concerned about the ability of the global models -- which don't have quite as good resolution as the mesoscale models -- to pick up on the fine-scale features that will determine/influence ' track. They may well prove to be perfect with the track, but as with any model output -- including the mesoscale and statistical model -- you've got to remain skeptical and use it as it is intended to be used: as guidance.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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st.pete boy
Unregistered
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Jumping the gun: LOOK WHAT ABC ACTION NEWS IS SAYING
"Dennis has become the season's first hurricane. It looks like it will miss the bay area and Florida's west coast entirely. "! How do they KNOW SO far in advance!?
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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The collective media compromises a group of highly paid morons. While the has some problems of its own, an incompetent media doesn't help to relay an already obscure message like this.
Easy now...I am sure you don't include our mets in that group.
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cheers
Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Jul 06 2005 11:55 PM)
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st.pete boy
Unregistered
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Their advice is misleading...there's no guarantee it will miss W. FL. I HOPE it does...but there is no guarantee....
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Hurricane Freak
Unregistered
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Quote:
The collective media compromises a group of highly paid morons. While the has some problems of its own, an incompetent media doesn't help to relay an already obscure message like this.
Agreed. This apply for almost everything on TV, not only weather forecasts
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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They DON'T know, and that's why I can't stand watching them. Last year after hit, they were trying to say they were "the best weather team in Tampa because we predicted the turn FIRST."
Yeah, I don't THINK so..
By the way...I just checked the satellite loops; looks to me like it isn't a jog, but a true NW movement. Will just have to keep on watching.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Actually, they may only have the appearance of highly paid morons, as that is what they are designed to be. They dumb down the art of complex forecasting to the point where the everyman can figure out if it is going to rain or not on the way to work. Because of this retardation, it can become difficult to distinguish whether or not someone is genuinely an idiot, or just feigning it.
ahem... I am off topic
EDIT: Of course I don't include any of the fine people at flhurricane, or any of the genuine tv mets out there. 
Edited by Lysis (Thu Jul 07 2005 12:02 AM)
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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 46
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VIPIR is something I haven't let the proverbial jury back in for. Yet. I recall there being a big hubbub with one of the Bay Area stations and , there being a single model showing the hard NE turn into Punta Gorda. IIRC, this was . Anyone care to confirm/kill?
I live in the East Orlando (UCF) area, attending the university, and home is Port Richey (central Pasco, along the 19 corridor) so I generally experience a lot of "crosstalk" when it comes to the various wx stations/personalities around here and at home.
Though I don't expect to roll through Orlando, I've got my apartment stocked. I'm a tad more worried about my hometown though. Anyone willing to impart a good digest of the conditions/general wisdom w.r.t. ?
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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
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Quote:
I got limbs to pick up from today (Cindy) but I told my wife that I was gonna wait till the big one comes and goes then pick it all up at one time.
LOL......hopefully Lowe's or Home Depot has those large trash bags on sale today or tomorrow for you........ 
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Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....
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AndyG
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 35
Loc: Bradenton, FL
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Quote:
VIPIR is something I haven't let the proverbial jury back in for. Yet. I recall there being a big hubbub with one of the Bay Area stations and , there being a single model showing the hard NE turn into Punta Gorda. IIRC, this was . Anyone care to confirm/kill?
I live in the East Orlando (UCF) area, attending the university, and home is Port Richey (central Pasco, along the 19 corridor) so I generally experience a lot of "crosstalk" when it comes to the various wx stations/personalities around here and at home.
Though I don't expect to roll through Orlando, I've got my apartment stocked. I'm a tad more worried about my hometown though. Anyone willing to impart a good digest of the conditions/general wisdom w.r.t. ?
Yeah, it was Jerve with
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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I just read a post by Steve in Storm2K.... FOX 8 weather uses a model program called , I am not that familiar with it, but I know it nailed Cindy's track 2.5 days out... Steve also mentioned it did very well last year with , and was accurate on both and Bret earlier this year.... for what is worth, and probaby not much this far out, it's latest run has impacting just west of NO... similar to a Betsy track.... as a side note, it was reported by Bob Breck, weather Guru at Fox 8, that he had friend at the that said could be a Cat 4 at landfall... if this comes to fruition, and I'm not saying it will because I have no idea where is going, it would be very similar to another Georges 98 track, but only a lot stronger, and perhaps a worse case scenario for N'awlins... Steve, if your monitoring the board please feel to comment on the , and its track on ...
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Storm Cooper
User
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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OK. Everyone chill on this, please! There are mets here local that I do not like... you have "forecasters" and you have "mets"... The majority of these people(I think) really do the best job they can with the info they have access to. We all have our trusted favorites and like models, the out in left field guys. I guess I am trying to prevent an all out bashing of mets/forecasters/on-air faces. We all again have things on the line and lets just do the best we can.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I am 45 miles west of you/ The best advice is to wait until it gets to Cuba. By then you will know whether or not it will be close enough to the Peninsula to board up lock down or leave. But, if you are planning on getting gasoline, and don't have to use it sooner, I would get it now. By the time the media knows what side the butter is on, there won't be any gas to get. Orlando, Lake Wales and points West got really hit hard from the 3 last year and we all have good memories of what it takes to make it through. It is best to be over cautious. Especially on things you can use August through November.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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bigpapi
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: Myrtle Beach, SC
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Sorry for the technical questions. I've looked at the past discussions and I notice the 8pm advisory has moving 13mph. Now on the past advisories it mentioned moving about 16 mph and that general speed to continue for the next few days until it moves NW around the edge of the ridge.
Wouldn't this change some of the models and make a NW turn more towards central Cuba and put the Keys more at risk? Or will probably just speed up again.
Also looks like if he keeps the current heading for the next few hours, he may clip the southern most part of Haiti and miss to the north of Jamaica. 
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AndyG
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 35
Loc: Bradenton, FL
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Yeah, I went tonight and got 30 gallons for the generator. Better safe than sorry. Last year I can remember waiting in line and then only able to buy premium.
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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is it me or does this thing have two eyes in a nose on the infrared? and it is going north of jamaica.
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Brett
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Yes, how much of a concern is the slowing trend? I know it was predicted that would slow its forward speed, but is this happening, or just a factor of growing hurricane like wobbles? Clark, thanks for the explanation. When will the first models be coming out with the data from recon?
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South Florida
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
I just read a post by Steve in Storm2K.... FOX 8 weather uses a model program called , I am not that familiar with it, but I know it nailed Cindy's track 2.5 days out... Steve also mentioned it did very well last year with , and was accurate on both and Bret earlier this year.... for what is worth, and probaby not much this far out, it's latest run has impacting just west of NO... similar to a Betsy track.... as a side note, it was reported by Bob Breck, weather Guru at Fox 8, that he had friend at the that said could be a Cat 4 at landfall... if this comes to fruition, and I'm not saying it will because I have no idea where is going, it would be very similar to another Georges 98 track, but only a lot stronger, and perhaps a worse case scenario for N'awlins... Steve, if your monitoring the board please feel to comment on the , and its track on ...
I know a little about it....I helped design parts of it...LOL.
The model is a custom version of the with different physics and convectiive initation, and it outperformed pretty much everything on last year, and did a pretty good job on some toher storms, but missed some as well...It is pretty good, but I wouldn't use it exclsuively...it is guidance, just like the rest of the modelling is. However, I can tell you that it doesn't call for a landfall west of NO, cause the model doesn't run out that far. It does HINT at it (if you extrapolate) but it doesn't have a landfall forecast. In addition, the previous runs have been back and forth with the tracks just as the rest of the modelling has been.
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Jason Kelley
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