MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Mike, when you say "better" do you mean you are feeling slighty more confident in a panhandle landfall or do you mean that you feel better for them because you have slightly more confidence that it will go elsewhere and save them from the /Dennis double whammy? You previous post confused me some. Regardless of your thoughts, what evidence are you using to give your forcast more confidence? Thanks for all the help to those who contribute to this community! It really is a great place to learn and build off of a casual weather interest.
Better as in less chance of a Peninsula landfall, it's not so great for the panhandle and points west, though. That does not mean it cannot happen, however.
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MaoMaster
Unregistered
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Is NOT the  , they are two different things, aren't they, Clark??
MM
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Littlebit
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 47
Loc: Plant City, FL
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Colleen, thanks for the info! That's what I was looking for. Have a great evening.
DJ
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alan in apopka
Unregistered
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I really like the new wind speed probability chart the puts out. If you look at it, it shows the only gives themselves an 8 percent chance of being right at the four-day prediction.
The highest chance for hurricane force winds in the US? Key West with a 10 percent chance.
Atlanta has a 7 percent chance for tropical storm force winds in day five!
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alan in apopka
Unregistered
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And check out the loop for tropical storm force winds over the next five days
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/031807.shtml?tswindloop?
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Dennis continues on his 'whirlwind' trip across the Caribbean, with Jamaica next in his sights. Landfall very near the island should occur tomorrow, likely as a category 2 storm. Beyond that is a grazing of the Caymans, followed by a path near the Isle or Youth (or Pines, whichever you prefer) then across Cuba, likely as a cat 2-3. After the transit of Cuba, should restrengthen after it enters the SE GOM.
The modelling is flip-flopping, but we are seeing a general eastward trend in the modelling in the 00Z runs, and a more westward flop in the 12Z runs. It will be interesting to see if this continues in the runs tomorrow, but one thing is pretty clear, the flipping and flopping is centered almost right on top of Biloxi, MS Because of this, if I were making an exact landfall call right now, it would be near or east of Biloxi (due to a current west bias I believe in most of the modelling). Nevertheless, this puts NO ONE out of danger at this point from the Keys to Lake Charles. Modelling trends and the evolution of various features (excellently described by Clark in earlier posts) will have to be closely monitored.
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Jason Kelley
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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Quote:
Thanks for the update Jason.... if Breck is "extrapolating" that will hit west of NO, as reported in his weather segment, I'm sure it has the city's attention big time.... and if nothing else, they should be getting prepared like everyone else....
The question is when will Neigan tell them to evacuate? It will take more that 72 hrs just to notify the public, they decide to leave then leave. They need to start evacuating now to be safe. They don't even open the W I-10 to make it E. I'm glad I'm not over there right now. I'll tough it out here in Mobile.
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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I don't know, but I can't believe we're dealing with this right now. In early July! A major Hurricane we'll be dealing with. It hasn't even been a year since hit this area and now we already have to be prepared for the possibility of the Menace. Unbelieveable.
Thanks for all your updates here.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
The question is when will Neigan tell them to evacuate? It will take more that 72 hrs just to notify the public, they decide to leave then leave. They need to start evacuating now to be safe. They don't even open the W I-10 to make it E. I'm glad I'm not over there right now. I'll tough it out here in Mobile.
I was listening to a local Emergency Management official on WWL 870 AM early this morning.
He said something about a new "50 hour" rule in reference to evacuating the New Orleans area.
I'll see if I can find something on it.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Link are from City of New Orleans.com
I will post them in the Disaster forum.
http://www.cityofno.com/portal.aspx?portal=46
http://www.cityofno.com/portal.aspx?portal=46&tabid=3
http://www.cityofno.com/portal.aspx?portal=46&tabid=18
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Droop31
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Pensacola
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Dunno if its been posted already but the newest run of the for lack of a better phrase owns the Pensacola area. Interesting shift in a model which has been fairly consistent today. I suspect we'll see the waffling back and forth for the next few days. Clark or Jason, any thoughts?
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I really think we are in for a surprise.I think some have gotten a little cocky with the forcast track.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I was listening to a local Emergency Management official on WWL 870 AM early this morning.
He said something about a new "50 hour" rule in reference to evacuating the New Orleans area.
April 13, 2005 -- According to today's FEMA National Situation Update, a new hurricane evacuation plan was demanded by Governor Kathleen Blanco after Hurricane when a traffic snarl that stretched from New Orleans to Baton Rouge lasted upward of 12 hours. The plan was put together by state police and the DOTD and includes evacuation routes for not only New Orleans and points south, but Lake Charles, Lafayette and the Houma-Thibodaux area. Under the new plan preparing for evacuations would begin at least 72 hours in advance. One of the problems during was the time required to get barriers, people and other material in place to allow lane reversal on highways.
Beginning 50 hours in advance, evacuations south of New Orleans would be ordered, public offices and schools would be closed, but traffic would remain along normal routes.
At 40 hours, evacuation south of the Mississippi River, including the West Bank of New Orleans, would be ordered.
In Phase 3, if the storm is a category 3 storm or higher, contraflow would be triggered.
Problems that slowed traffic last time ran the gamut from signs that were too hard to read, forcing drivers to slow excessively, to breakdowns. Under the new system tow trucks will be stationed along the routes and new signs will be installed. The new hurricane evacuation plan also requires a number of new ramps to be added or widened, new crossovers and other items at a cost of $7.5 million.
http://www.emforum.org/news/05041301.htm
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Droop31
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Pensacola
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Who's in for a surprise? It should come as no surprise that the Central or Eastern gulf coast is in for a major hurricane this weekend.
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CategoryFive
Registered User
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Posts: 4
Loc: On Louisiana's vanishing coast
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The better recalcualte all their instruments as well as the ones used on the hurricane hunter aircraft. I was on Grand Isle last night and I can tell you that their were sustained hurricane force winds when she came ashore.
Don't know why the was hesitant to upgrade it bu t I guarantee it was at hurricane status when it made landfall.
OK...back to ..... 
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USC can't three peat...they didn't win it all in 2003 !!
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Carl
Unregistered
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Dennis getting stronger...pressure down to 975 mb
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Possibly. But the notes from recon indicate he is not 100% efficent.
Line "L". OPEN NW
M. E10/30/20
P. Eye Open SW-NE
The temperature is mighty cool in the eye. 9 C=48.2 F
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Sorry for such a late response, Steve Jervey seemed to have been the most accurate of all of them last year.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Carl
Unregistered
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just took a look at the Saffir-Simpson scale. According to the scale, typical cat 2 hurricanes
range in pressure from 965 mb up to 979 mb. I think there is a good chance willl be upgraded to cat 2 at the next advisory. The storm also seems to have taken a good jog to the west lately as well.
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dem05
User
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Models will be introducing an new, sharp, fast moving trough coming out of Alaska soon. This is the great definer. It was out of the model region and little data was entered into the plots. This is the one that really may matters from the info I received. Until so, expect a windshield wiper effect on the models.
P.S. Wasn't supposed to be further west at landfall.
P.S.S. Wasn't Cindy supposed to be hitting Houston on the 72+ Hour Forecast?
Keep this in mind folks and once again...The cone is there.
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