VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
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They sure are taking their time with the discussion tonight. Hopefully, it will clear up some of these questions.
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Brad Shumbera
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
They sure are taking their time with the discussion tonight. Hopefully, it will clear up some of these questions.
It's out:
Hurricane Discussion Number 10
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 06, 2005
Dennis has finally mixed out the dry air that had wrapped into the
center during the day. Air Force Reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter
aircraft have been flying into this afternoon and evening...
and reports indicate surface winds have likely increased to at least
75 kt and the pressure has decreased to at least 980 mb...a
pressure drop of 7 mb in the past 5 hours. A feature has also
developed over the center in satellite imagery...and a warm
spot/pre-eye feature has been trying to develop the past couple of
hours. However...an earlier SSMI microwave overpass indicated a
closed eye had already developed in the mid-levels.
The initial motion estimate is 300/13. There are no changes to
previous track forecast or reasoning. The models remain in strong
agreement that the subtropical ridge currently extending east-west
across the Florida Peninsula will remain intact through 60-72
hours. This should keep moving west-northwestward through 72
hours. After that...however... the models vary significantly on how
the mid-latitude flow pattern evolves across the central and
western U.S....which ultimately has an impact on the steering flow
over the Gulf of Mexico. Half of the models build a high amplitude
ridge over the Great Lakes and southwestward into the Southern
Plains...while the other models like the nam...Canadian...GFDL...
and have less ridging and more troughing over the western
and central Gulf. Overall...the model guidance has shifted slightly
to the right. Given this uncertainty in the longer range...the
official forecast track is just an extension of the previous track.
Now that a and eye have developed...the only inhibiting factor
would be interaction with land. In the absence of that...the low
shear and 29c SSTs favor significant intensification for at least
the next 48 hours. The latest model run brings to 127
kt in 36 hours...while the SHIPS model is fairly robust in taking
Dennis up to 107 kt in 60 hours. All of the models agree that some
southwesterly shear could affect the hurricane just prior to making
landfall...so slight weakening is indicated at 96 hours.
Forecaster Stewart
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 07/0300z 16.5n 73.4w 75 kt
12hr VT 07/1200z 17.6n 75.4w 85 kt
24hr VT 08/0000z 19.2n 77.8w 95 kt
36hr VT 08/1200z 20.7n 80.1w 105 kt
48hr VT 09/0000z 22.2n 82.1w 105 kt
72hr VT 10/0000z 25.0n 85.0w 105 kt
96hr VT 11/0000z 28.5n 87.0w 100 kt
120hr VT 12/0000z 32.0n 88.5w 80 kt...inland
$$
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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I am not sure that this discussion clears up a whole lot. I have been telling my sis in Gulfport to say goodbye to Cindy and get herself ready for .
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Jara
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PolkBB
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 15
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The closer it gets the more likely a central gulf hit seems to be the right call.
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ronnie_b
Unregistered
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Quote:
I am not sure that this discussion clears up a whole lot. I have been telling my sis in Gulfport to say goodbye to Cindy and get herself ready for .
I agree, from 11PM
The initial motion estimate is 300/13. There are no changes to
previous track forecast or reasoning. The models remain in strong
agreement that the subtropical ridge currently extending east-west
across the Florida Peninsula will remain intact through 60-72
hours. This should keep moving west-northwestward through 72
hours. After that...however... the models vary significantly on how
the mid-latitude flow pattern evolves across the central and
western U.S....which ultimately has an impact on the steering flow
over the Gulf of Mexico. Half of the models build a high amplitude
ridge over the Great Lakes and southwestward into the Southern
Plains...while the other models like the nam...Canadian...GFDL...
and have less ridging and more troughing over the western
and central Gulf. Overall...the model guidance has shifted slightly
to the right.Given this uncertainty in the longer range...the
official forecast track is just an extension of the previous track
Looks like is punting after 72 hours...will someone flip a coin?
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Overall...the model guidance has shifted slightly
to the right. So I am not a dummy yet. 
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Well bob of course your not out of the woods............ Just lets keep watching the model runs. I feel after the 12Z come out tomorrow we will know if Florida will be hit east of 85dg W. We will know cause of the model trends and how the shortwaves are affecting the ridge over the state.
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Bob, I don't think it's realy trending one way or the other yet. In fact, it may go back a bit west later on. I'm feeling slightly better for the peninsula tonight, but not much. ( Better that it will pass it on by, unforunately for the Panhandle and other parts of the Gulf)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I agree Scott.Hopefully I can write this off for us here in se fl. by tommorow night.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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im just not seeing it yet with the west track. i mean all the models are meeting each other i find that very odd
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Bob...there are no "dummies" here as far as I'm concerned. There are, of course, those who know more than we do because they are mets, and that helps us learn. However, we amatuers use our eyes and what knowledge we DO have when we post. We may sometimes be wrong, sometimes be right. But we are never DUMB! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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yeah i think if we get missed by this one that will wont get missed by emil if she is named and im still not convinced on cindy dying out. the tropics are busy. 
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PolkBB
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 15
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Noting the most current track, I assume there are no models currently projecting a west central FL track? Correct?
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Littlebit
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 52
Loc: Plant City, FL
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Can someone please let me know the best site to find spaghetti models for current hurricanes?
Thank you, DJ
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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its just way too early for all those too meet up in ms.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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DJ...look at the left hand side of the main page. There you will see "Coordinates", click on that and then hit "Plots" and it will give you an animated loop of all the models.
Hope that helps! 
Thanks Colleen
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 06 2005 11:44 PM)
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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well guys and gals im out for tonight gotta work tomorrow but im gonna be busy tomorrow night for sure. i really love this board more than the local media no offense too tom terry!
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Big Daddy
Unregistered
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WFLA has replaced its regular DTV radar display with what looks like the spaghetti run from Hurricane Alley. It's on channel 8-3 OTA in Tampa Bay and should be available if you have Brighthouse digital.
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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
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Mike, when you say "better" do you mean you are feeling slighty more confident in a panhandle landfall or do you mean that you feel better for them because you have slightly more confidence that it will go elsewhere and save them from the /Dennis double whammy? You previous post confused me some. Regardless of your thoughts, what evidence are you using to give your forcast more confidence? Thanks for all the help to those who contribute to this community! It really is a great place to learn and build off of a casual weather interest.
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Brad Shumbera
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Well I have been tracking Hurricanes for about 25 years,and I never write off a storm until it passes a certain point.I learned that along time ago.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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