VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Bryan, TX
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Quote:
gonna go see if i can find when the last july category 4 hurricane was.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200504_climo.html
This weatherunderground image shows all July cat 3, 4, and 5 storms to pass within 600 miles of ' center.
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Brad Shumbera
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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Abyrd -- remember, that was the position of the storm at 8p, not currently or as of the 11p advisory. It should be fairly close.
Breeezy -- the is fair with tropical cyclones, though not the best. It's the most widely-used, however, and certainly worth consideration. Too early to tell what the various model oscillations end up resulting in for the Florida Panhandle, however.
Gotta turn in here for the night...have a good one everyone, we'll do this again tomorrow.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Clark would you like to comment on the latest Canadian run which pretty much puts on the MS coast in 72 hours... almost a Camille like path.. I don't think will be more than a strong Cat 2 however as the approaches the northern or northeast gulf coast... just can't see water temps supporting much more than that, too shallow, too disturbed from Cindy... My opinion only... still a strong Cat 2 bad enough
http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/03Cienfuegos/cienfuegosa.gif
If I remember correctly the Canadian did real well with 4-5 days out and was the western outlier of all the models, and pretty much was one of the best performers showing going towards NO run after run, while all the others were all over the place...
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Dr. Max from was just on CNN headline news and i think it was live, cuz he was talking about ham radio reports of major damage in south cuba with 20ft plus storm surge... and expects to regain to a cat 3 maybe a 4 after crossing cuba into GOM.... also said that this is only the 7th time in history of tracking canes has there been a major one in july....
Here in PCB:
Also was able to fill up tanks for generator with gas an hour ago at a gas station..... most gas now is around town is $2.43 for unleaded, but i found a tom thumb for $2.13....yep!!!! the lines were all the way around the store!!!! i say maybe 40 plus vehicles too!!!! i talked to a person in side and he said a truck was a hour away and that they were told gas was going up 20 cents when it gets there from there supplier....said they are talking about how cindy affected them in GOM and cut production..... i think the state needs to jump in now and help!!!!!
Also wally world (wal-mart) was out of water/batteries and some other things.....good thing i went tuesday and got stuff!!!!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: apopka
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This site is the best.
Thanks clark. Looked at the six hour 00Z and, sure enough, right on target.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
gonna go see if i can find when the last july category 4 hurricane was.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200504_climo.html
This weatherunderground image shows all July cat 3, 4, and 5 storms to pass within 600 miles of ' center.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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I just spent a good 20-25 minutes looking at loops. As I looked at the at the water vapor loops for the GOM, Western Caribbean and Atlantic, I noticed some interesting things. It does appear to my untrained eyes that the short-wave trough is digging further south into the GOM. Then when I looked at the other one, it looks like Cindy's remnants are pushing the Bermuda High further east. The trough was not down this far about 4 - 5 hours ago. I made a note of it to keep checking back, and sure enough it does look like it's stronger than what the models were picking up on.
At least to me...if someone else wants to look at it and tell me if I'm right or wrong, please feel free to do so.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Lisa NC
Weather Guru
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Loc: North Carolina
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was just looking at the UKM 00Z models, it has coming in west of NO. If that were to happen, isn't that like the worst case for NO? The east side of the storm is usally the stronger correct.
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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Yep and the UKM has been consistent with that track for some time now. I am just hoping that it doesn't turn out to be right this time.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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What a shocker.......not only is the UKMET not going east with the rest of the models., but the Canadian that was always the eastern most now significantly moves almost inline with the UKMET near LA. A change of over 300 miles or more. The whole deciding movement now lies with the storm itself over the next 12 hours. IF moves more NNW thru the morning and comes out east of 81W then the Keys and Western Florida up to landfall south of Tallahasse will be impacted the most. IF he moves NW or WNW as the 2 models above show and just skirts the southern coast and doesnt go inland thru morning. Then he will apparently come out of Cuba closer to 82W or further west of course. This will then most likely then take him NW and NNW near Biloxi and Mobile later Sunday. Florida Keys will still get squalls and so will most of Florida but from Panama City westward will feel most of this system. The ridge by most models are showing it hanging onto the eastern parts of Florida as the shortwaves diminish entering the gulf. This will not hamper the ridge as much as we might of thought and now we understand why some models wernt showing a weakness in the ridge.
Again we wont know how this all comes together until it does over the next 12 hours. Lets watch and see.
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ohioaninmiss
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Columbus, OH
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I found this table that breaks down the number of major hurricanes to hit the US mainland by month (but, unfortunately does not name them). Also, it is only 1900-2000. But it gives you some idea....
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/deadly/Table10.htm
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Marie
Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Yeah, and the Canadian puts it pretty close to NO as well... I guess these are the two western outliers...
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Scott, you the man. You stole my thunder. I just clicked refresh and nearly fell down with shock at the . Now I am sitting here with baited breath waiting for some of the other 00Z runs. In one run it went from the Big Bend area of Florida to Gulfport. Yikes.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Looks like also on Sat and Radar that doesnt want to come back onshore Cuba anytime soon. Over the last few hours hes been staying offshore on more of a wnw jog. Ukmet looks to be right but we dont know forsure for hours.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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OK all the major models are in and the has also shifted west. has landfall near Biloxi and near LA also. The NASA jetstream showed a strong midlevel ridge near 26n this will keep on more of a WNW then NW movement entering the gulf.
Looks like many in SE florida can go to sleep now but can expect some squalls.
scottsvb
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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on the and UKM 00Z runs i noticed that they both use cindy as she heads to the ne towards new england and both build a ridge over ohio, or in that gereral area and once cindy passed, it connects with the high off the east coast and builds pretty strong ridge over central mid atlantic, which would not allow a northeast turn as much....more wnw than nw....will have to see though....appears that the high off the east coast won't weaken that much, but this was the same problem last year the models had a time with....how strong is the bermuda high and how far around will ride it? also noticed water temps of of tampa are not a warm as 2 weeks ago....and are shallow too..... i think shear will begin to affect storm late sat into sunday on the west side.... will see
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jul 08 2005 01:13 AM)
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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so would you say that tampa is pretty much out of the running for this thing??? 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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SeeSaw99
Registered User
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Loc: Tempe, AZ
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Hi Scottsvb,
Can you tell me where I can find those new model plots? I've been looking at Weatherunderground, but there is a delay there, and I was wondering if you could direct me to where you are looking. Thanks!
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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not out of the running..... i think the major factor right now is how reacts to cuba and crossing the country in GOM.... which a few miles left or right of track in cuba will be major shifts down the road in northern gulf. it looks like tampa and places southward will just get the outer bands...the keys maybe hurricane force, but not that bad...as what northern Gulf coast i say from LA/MS line to Panama City, will get on sunday
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jul 08 2005 01:08 AM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Well, it looks like the models are drawing battle lines right now -- some near Biloxi, others eastern/central Florida panhandle, with very little middle ground right now. This is where the forecasters earn their dollars -- why have the models shifted, what is going on, what will happen in the short-term, and ultimately...where is the storm going to make landfall?
On the Canadian model: surprised at the shift; in fact, surprised probably isn't the right word. I have no idea why it suddenly shifted, but it is something to watch. When models shift around, either something drastic has changed, or they really don't know what is going to happen. My bet is on the latter right now.
It's going to be a game of cat & mouse with the shortwaves and the strength of the ridge. The UWisconsin analyses show the westward extension into the SE Gulf, but then a sharp turn back towards the Big Bend area. This is confirmed by water vapor imagery. If is going to move WNW across Cuba, it's got to turn west now; it's already moving on a steady northwest path and looks ready to make a second landfall in the next couple of hours.
A series of shortwaves is lines up along the Rockies, ready to dive southward, enhanced by mesoscale convective complexes that fire each night along the frontrange. How far south will they reach, and how strong will they be? There's evidence to believe that they will pick up ; there's also evidence to believe that they might not. Still, the emphasis of before that nowhere between New Orleans and S. Florida is safe rings even more true this early morning. I still believe a Florida landfall is likely, but as mentioned before -- no one in the aforementioned zone should be letting their guard down.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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