Londovir
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
|
|
2am is at least up at Weatherunderground: 2am Public Advisory
20.3N / 78.5W, still going NW at 15, pressure at 955.
Cuba reported gust around 67mph...so it's building for them. Going to be a long, dark night in Cuba. Why do these things always seem to love hitting areas after nightfall?
-------------------- Londovir
|
WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
|
|
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE WAS LOCATED
OVER WATER BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 20.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST...OR 80 MILES...125 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF CAMAGUEY AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD
CUBA.
Bingo.
-------------------- I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
Quote:
flaudbob.......I hope you're right, but that's a bold statement in light of the some of the models shifting, the UKMET's consistency of a LA strike and the current trend of to parallel the coast of Cuba, which could make a huge difference in the landfalling position, but hey what do I know?
I promise you this, I am not seeing things. I just stared at it for 10 minutes straight, and It's moving nearly due west in the last hour.And it moved almost due north earlier today.But the fact is it has moved more nw than the models said just today.I know you know about jogs.This is a tough one,Cuba will play a big role.Most storms that track this way do curve north then north east.When this will occur is the big question.Again if it slows over Cuba,maybe to 10mph,I think it will track north.I have been right so far,even when some called me a fool.
As much as I want to agree with you, I don't think we are out of the woods just yet. There's still enough uncertainity to include Grand Isle to the Big Bend of Florida.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
2am was late due to recon vortex from NOAA flight
opps forgot to wite RECCO Observations
here's latest i have:
000
URNT11 KWBC 080607
97779 06074 60195 7751/ 30600 19047 1007/ /3121
RMK NOAA2 0704A OB 11 KWBC
That's a standard recon update. Not a vortex~danielw
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jul 08 2005 02:13 AM)
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
Quote:
flaudbob.......I hope you're right, but that's a bold statement in light of the some of the models shifting, the UKMET's consistency of a LA strike and the current trend of to parallel the coast of Cuba, which could make a huge difference in the landfalling position, but hey what do I know?
I promise you this, I am not seeing things. I just stared at it for 10 minutes straight, and It's moving nearly due west in the last hour. .And it moved almost due north earlier today.But the fact is it has moved more nw than the models said just today.I know you know about jogs.This is a tough one,Cuba will play a big role.Most storms that track this way do curve north then north east.When this will occur is the big question.Again if it slows over Cuba,maybe to 10mph,I think it will track north.I have been right so far,even when some called me a fool.
As much as I want to agree with you, I don't think we are out of the woods just yet. There's still enough uncertainity to include Grand Isle to the Big Bend of Florida.
.And it moved almost due north earlier today.But the fact is it has moved more nw than the models said just today.I know you know about jogs.This is a tough one,Cuba will play a big role.Most storms that track this way do curve north then north east.When this will occur is the big question.Again if it slows over Cuba,maybe to 10mph,I think it will track north.I have been right so far,even when some called me a fool.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
|
|
Bob, sure I know about wobbles and this motion to the west in the last two hours is not just a wobble. At the same time, I am in no way saying that this is a permanent movement. It's going to have to do this for quite a few more hours before it would effect the overall motion. Lastly, I don't think I have ever called you a fool......I just so happen to disagree with your post regarding New Orleans. Sorry if I offended.
-------------------- I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
You did not offend me at all.I think the 5:00pm update Friday will be huge.We should know then what the interaction with Cuba will bring.Do believe it is only July 8th????????We have a long way to go.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3526
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
.And it moved almost due north earlier today.But the fact is it has moved more nw than the models said just today.I know you know about jogs.This is a tough one,Cuba will play a big role.Most storms that track this way do curve north then north east.When this will occur is the big question.Again if it slows over Cuba,maybe to 10mph,I think it will track north.I have been right so far,even when some called me a fool.
Yes it has moved that way. But for the last 1.5 to 2 hours the eye has moved almost due WEST. That's 270degrees. And also appear to be in an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.
Should he continue his current track. He will probably pass South of the Island off the Western tip of CUBA.
I believe that's the Isle of Youth ( Isla de la Juventad).
Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 08 2005 02:20 AM)
|
WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
|
|
I agree, that's the amazing part. We're staring at a classic cat 4 hurricane on July 8. Makes you wonder what we might be looking at on September 8.
-------------------- I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Bob the chance the storm is coming to your house is about 1%. If your right, then you will be credited greatly. I will be in amazement of what made it do it. Anyways good luck to your forecast.
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
where do you think will strike cuba again....post some cords.
i am calling near -81w and 22n.
What is everyone else thinking second landfall will be?
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jul 08 2005 02:21 AM)
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
Again I said South Florida not Miami or Ft laud.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
Quote:
We have a long way to go.
You can say that again.
I do see the more westward movement...also looks like the eye is reforming.
Guess what? It'll still be there in the morning.
I'm also guessing that by 8:00pm Sunday we'll know where it's going.
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
I was going to say that there is a more west trend,until the last frame.This thing will drive us all nuts.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
http://merak.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif
storms have refired near center...looks like on radar/sats, nw eyewall is open
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
|
WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
|
|
If this trend continues it surely will get past 80W before making landfall in Cuba.
I'm losing eye functions..........need some Z's. Going to go get a couple of hours of sleep.
-------------------- I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
Do you see the shift back towards the north at the end?
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
Quote:
If this trend continues it surely will get past 80W before making landfall in Cuba.
I'm losing eye functions..........need some Z's. Going to go get a couple of hours of sleep.
WIMP.....Just kidding,losing my mind wih this thing.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
No
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3526
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Easy does it.
|