Terra
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Not saying it's not more significant than flat land... just commenting that latent heat is the biggest deal. I mean, friction is an interaction with a surface... there is a larger surface area for a mountainous area than there is for flat land... More surface, more friction....
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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OrlandoDan
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Notice the "blob" of weather on the last frame of the following just ESE of Tampa. If were to be there now, that would probably be his track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
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danielw
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I think the mountainous area would have more affect on a Troical Storm or Lower Category Hurricane.
Dennis is likely reaching above 50,000 feet into the atmosphere, and a 6200 ft mountain on the eastern side of his winds would seem to have more of an accelerating effect on the wind. Terra?
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Rich B
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Well looks like some particularly nice spots of Cuba are set to get a bashing, namely the tourist hotspots around Varedero. Of course, any deviation westwards will mean the Havana will be starring in the 'eye'. Given the intensity of , i feel very sorry for anyone caught in his path. I personally think that as crosses Cuba the eye will collapse, and will weaken. However, he has a large circulation, and i expect the wind field will expand as he moves over Cuba. Additionally, if the eye does collapse it wouldnt surprise me to see a newer, much larger eyewall form, especially as the centre exits into the GOM.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Terra
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Not sure about acceleration.... but, based on the surface interaction, higher storms have less of their base at the surface than shorter storms, so that would imply less interaction. One thing mountains can do, however, is force air aloft and cause more clouds and severe rainfall... so, might not be good for Cuba, but I guess they're used to it.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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OrlandoDan
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Duh. Let me correct my earlier statement. I meant WSW of Tampa. So my post should have read:
Notice the "blob" of weather on the last frame of the following just WSW of Tampa. If were to be there now, that would probably be his track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
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geekicane
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I have done a bit of research since my initial post concerning the effect of land masses on cyclones. It seems that topography is not a primary consideration. It is the time spent over a land mass that robs a hurricane of its energy source. Given this, the forecasters apparently believe that the storm will cross relatively quickly, but I assume there are other factors they are considering which may forestall the typical weakening we would expect from such a transverse. I just wonder what those other factors might be. Thanks for all your responses and insights!
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OrlandoDan
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Dennis is just staying far enough out so sea to the relative NW to SE orientation of Cuba to allow him to retain his significant strength. I pray for the people of Cuba when this thing takes his turn to more of a NNW turn. I mean, where do you evacutate to? His direction of motion is, in a way, similiar to skirting the West coast of Florida if there were an expected turn to the NE. Just a few degress and the time of the turn could mean a difference of hundreds of miles of the position of the eye at landfall.
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Terra
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Quote:
Duh. Let me correct my earlier statement. I meant WSW of Tampa.
No worries, we're all tired.... (in fact, I need to go back to bed... I feel like I have a newborn getting up every couple hours). I knew what you meant!
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Kevin
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Quote:
I have done a bit of research since my initial post concerning the effect of land masses on cyclones. It seems that topography is not a primary consideration. It is the time spent over a land mass that robs a hurricane of its energy source. Given this, the forecasters apparently believe that the storm will cross relatively quickly, but I assume there are other factors they are considering which may forestall the typical weakening we would expect from such a transverse. I just wonder what those other factors might be. Thanks for all your responses and insights!
Good morning, everyone.
One factor that was mentioned in last night's discussion, as an intensity factor, is the eyewall replacement cycle. These cycles can disrupt the pattern/organization of a hurricane's eye, leading the temporary weakening of the storm. In the long term, however, strengthening can occur from these cycles. At the same time, an eye replacment cycle over land could be messy. One of the mets could better explain the physical processes that accompany one of these cycles.
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Kevin
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Quote:
Duh. Let me correct my earlier statement. I meant WSW of Tampa. So my post should have read:
Notice the "blob" of weather on the last frame of the following just WSW of Tampa. If were to be there now, that would probably be his track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
This is absolutely correct. Today is critical for watching 1) where emerges north of Cuba and 2) how/if the flow in the E. Gulf changes over the next 12-24 hours.
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OrlandoDan
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Very interesting. The Local Mets here in Orlando have always discussed mountainous terrain such as the island of Hispanola and eastern Cuba as having a significant effect on hurricanes - like tearing it apart - much more than flat land. I would like to learn much more on the difference the terrain has on a hurricane.
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tornado00
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I'm not implying that this is the case with this storm, but has there ever been a hurricane which did not follow a single one of the models? Resulting in a total surprise somewhere?
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Derek Sutherland
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danielw
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Charley~2004
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geekicane
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You bring up an important point re: eye replacement cycles. Right now, looking at the latest infrared loop, ' eye is contracting and looking very symmetrical in comparison with what we saw with his brief brush with Cuba yesterday. I assume that we will see further strenghtening in the next advisory. When will the next eye replacement cycle occur and what does that mean for the intensity going into the GOM?
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Kevin
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For some reason, I can't think of a storm that explicitly tracked well off course of model projections (especially within a day or so). At this point in time, the model outputs should become increasingly consistent and refined. If not, then there might be something that is "missing" from the initialization of the pattern. I want to say that made landfall south of most of the model projections last year. There may be numerous other examples, but there aren't many that come off the top of my head.
However, if you live along the west coast of Florida, then a landfall area between Appalachicola and Pensacola might be a big deal. The Appalachicola track would put the west coast of Florida at a greater risk for dangerous conditions...the Pensacola track allows for more breathing room. These two locations aren't extremely far from each other, and it's possible that future model runs may flip-flop between these two lacations. This is why everyone in Florida needs to be watching this storm.
On the flip side, hurricane conditions over the Peninsula (from ) look unlikely at this time.
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Kevin
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Quote:
You bring up an important point re: eye replacement cycles. Right now, looking at the latest infrared loop, ' eye is contracting and looking very symmetrical in comparison with what we saw with his brief brush with Cuba yesterday. I assume that we will see further strenghtening in the next advisory. When will the next eye replacement cycle occur and what does that mean for the intensity going into the GOM?
The replacement cycles usually occur every 6-12 hours...I think the next one might occur just north of Cuba. But 's are generally NOT forecastable. I agree that we could see more strengthening before this system reaches Cuba. For the crossing, I can already tell that isn't going to have to deal with much terrain for long. I think that will probably emerge from Cuba in a slightly disorganized state. However, tightening could occur as the storm moves further north.
IMO...and it's my opinion only...Dennis could possibly touch near category 5 status for a short period of time in the GOMex. This may not last for long though. As we already know, the 90 degree SST's don't extend all that far below the surface.
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OrlandoDan
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I don't mean to beat this subject to death, but I would like to re-explore the previous conversations about how mountainous terrain effects a hurricane vs. flat terrain.
Take a look at the eastern structure of on this:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
Notice that not only is the mountainous terrain getting walloped by holding back the rotation, but look at the effect the terrain is having on the eastern structure of . It is literally causing it to break off from the general rotation.
I have to agree with what is maybe a falacy - that mountainous terrain has a much different effect than flat terrain. The difference is that the eye of is not crossing mountainous terrain, therefore, he should retain his strenght, for the most part. But if a cane's eye were to pass over mountainous terrain, are not the local Mets here in Orlando correct in saying that this type of terrain has a much greater effect on weakening a cane than does flat terrain?
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OrlandoDan
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...a very well defined eye at the 09:45Z infrared picture.
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Kevin
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Quote:
I have to agree with what is maybe a falacy - that mountainous terrain has a much different effect than flat terrain. The difference is that the eye of is not crossing mountainous terrain, therefore, he should retain his strenght, for the most part. But if a cane's eye were to pass over mountainous terrain, are not the local Mets here in Orlando correct in saying that this type of terrain has a much greater effect on weakening a cane than does flat terrain?
Moutainous terrain has a much more severe effect on a storm's inflow than does flat terrain. Moutains can also severely disrupt the eye in very intense hurricanes. Limited inflow into a storm's center as well as no energy source=death sentence for a hurricane.
Now I'm back to bed...lol...or wait...maybe i'll wait for the first visible. 
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