meto
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 140
|
|
ridge over fla. is getting weaker, thats why its able to go more north. since that move more north today. and its going mainly north tonite. better chance trof will pick it up.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Steve, 11:00 pm probabilities show just a slight increase (2-3%) to the west... now New Orleans is getting them... none are very high but seems like the long term track might just be the northern gulf coast.... I thought I noticed a trend more to the west watching the IR loop but its so hard to tell at times, esp without and eye to track...
Carl/Southern/Jason, I too am a big Bama fan as most of my family from Mobile... Lost to OU was a heart breaker.... still gotta pull for my college that I graduated from...
|
clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Sorry I lost the link, but Dr. Avila stated that some of the models, was one of them, "showed the most closed isobars that I have ever seen." He noted that this would likely big a very large storm in the Gulf, I think he meant that literally, not just strength. He also made mention of the and the Canadian models bringing the system north and closed with a note about being very busy in the next few days. Interesting stuff...for everyone to watch in the Gulf.
'Cept not tonite..I'm going to bed!
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
One quick note about the prob product...the addition of NO and points west doesn't necessarily mean a westward shift of the track, but those cities are just now getting into the 5 day period of the forecast....if the forecast extended out to 7 days, they already would have been there.
Too much is made of the prob product, IMHO.
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
>>ridge over fla. is getting weaker, thats why its able to go more north. since that move more north today. and its going mainly north tonite. better chance trof will pick it up.
Meteo,
It's 7 up and 7 over on the official coordinates from 12 to 3 GMT according to the Weather Underground list of coordinates from the . My math was bad this afternoon, but I think I've got it right this time - heading DUE NW.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
|
|
Clyde, that was from the 11pm discussion.  Interesting.
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
That was 21p to 3a. Here are the coordinates:
21 GMT 09/18/02 19.0N 78.8W 60 999 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/19/02 19.7N 79.5W 60 998 Tropical Storm
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
OK, I'm not quite as skeptical now. Right on forecast track from 5:00 PM for the most part. If it starts the bit more of a WNW, as the track had it, I will feel a little better. Still too soon to let defenses down; but, it was nice to see it on track from a previous advisory.
--------------------
Jim
|
Carl
Unregistered
|
|
Steve,
I haven't seen Breck in a year or so. Who's the weekend guy on channel 8 these days. Does Breck look worried?
|
joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
|
|
Local forecasters(Jacksonville) are leaning toward northern gulf landfall, but not making any for-sure pred. Saying we will see change in weather no sooner than sat. but more likely sun or mon. They think cold-front will pick it up, take it N, NE into southeast. If it stalls, all bets are off.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
MS forecaster just stated that the expected weekend front will not make it to the northern gulf coast as originally forecasted a couple of days ago, and NOT have an effect on Izzy... matter of fact no front is expected to reach the NGC for the next seven days... if this comes to fruition then its a wide open game gang as to where this thing is going...
|
Southern4sure
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
|
|
stated izzy will continue nw until it reaches the GOM, then start taking a northerly track to the northen gulf coast. Izzy will then turn ne and move out into the altantic. But he stated, anything could happen in the next 5 days.
Makes me want to go HMMMMMMMMMMM
Southern
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Southern... I guess Bama will be playing their BOWL game this saturday against the undefeated Golden Eagles... hehe
|
Southern4sure
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
|
|
yep and will arrive in canoes! 
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Looks like we are out of the woods here in north central FL of any effects from "izzy"......
Shew I can breath.... I was getting a little nervous there for a while. I live on a nursery and am surrounded by sable palm trees in 50 and 100 gallon pots, which im sure would have made great progectiles (sp?)
Thanks all for all the great posts
Regards
BD
Taken from the NWS Jacksonville office
WHY YOU ASK...NO EXTENDED MODEL IS BRING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
ANYWHERE CLOSE TO NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE CLOSEST MODEL
FROM LAST NIGHT WAS THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH HAD AN 84 HOUR
POSITION 8 AM SATURDAY AT 28N 85W OR ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF
APALACHICOLA. THE 12 UTC RUN...THIS MORNING'S...HAD THE CENTER
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AT 26.4N 87W CONTINUING THE TREND OF MOVING
THE SYSTEM SOUTH AND WEST OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MOST OTHER MODELS
INCLUDING THE (AVN/MRF) MODEL ARE BUILDING A DEEP LEVEL RIDGE
(700-300 MB) OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
THE CENTER IS ACTUALLY OVER JACKSONVILLE ON SATURDAY.
WHILE THERE WILL BE A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WHICH MAY
CAUSE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE...I SUSPECT WE ARE OVERPLAYING
THE CONVECTION IN OUR EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH A SOUTHEAST
FETCH OFF THE OCEAN MAY BE GOOD FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE BEACHES...IF ISIDORE BECOMES A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE AND
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF (EARLY NEXT WEEK) WE WILL BE IN THE
SUBSIDENT REGION AROUND THE SYSTEM. THAT COUPLED WITH LOCAL
SUBSIDENCE FROM OUR PROTECTING RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
SOME BEAUTIFUL BLUE SKIES AND PLEASANT WEATHER.
.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.
SANDRIK
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
this is the first thread i've seen pick up eleven pages in under 18 hours...
is this storm getting attention or what?
by the way, late frames before GOES gets its overnight shuteye.. convective core of the system is improved. btw steve from old metairie (ill just say n'awlins steve), those coordinates are estimate, not a vortex fix. i'm not saying theyre wrong, just saying there is some uncertainty when youve got a and no eye. it has been going nnw all day, after all.
ah, alas, not a hurricane today. my tuesday morning call was a bust. let there be great lamentation and mourning.
HF 0351z19september
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
BD, By no means is North cental florida out of the woods. tht was written this afternoon before the 18Z . Don't let your guard down yet
Steve H/.
|
57497479
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
|
|
11pm discussion also stated that if Isidore deviates any more to the N. then watches or warnings may have to go up for the Fl. Keys.
Who saw the 11p update on with Lyons? Maybe it was just me but I thought that his update was very limited and you could see the flustration on his face tonight. Toni
--------------------
TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Carl,
He wasn't so much concerned as he was cautious in that there is no immediate threat to us. However, Fox 8 did a little piece on supplies right after. That's a good news segment for anytime during the season. Jeff Baskin is his weekend guy who actually gets the 5 and 6 spots too. Bob does the 9 and special segments from 'the weather office.'
HF,
Yeah, I realize those are estimates, but it's the 'official' estimate since it's provided by the . That's what we and the models have to go on. Considering the previous coordinates had the movement between NNW and N, this is a change. It also appears evident (to me anyway) on the IR fixes. I'm not rushing to get any supplies yet. I've got most of what I need to live on for a couple of weeks except candles, batteries, ice and charcoal. I'll make that call on Saturday morning. Of course I am out of beer. I wouldn't want to run out of elixir of life you know.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
To those of you that are wanting a hurricane to come to you, may I suggest you go to it. Trust me, after living through Andrew in Miami, with no air conditioning, power, water, telephone, etc. and having to wait in line for food, gas, and the traffic problems and cerfews, you would rather be just be visiting than to be living in a place devistated by a Hurricane. A hurricane is a force unlike anything else and provides you with an adreneline rush, however, the rush is quickly erased once the storm passes and the clean up begins.
I always wished for a hurricane also, that is until my wish came true.. Be careful what you wish for, you just may get it..
Best regards and happy hunting !!!
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
