tpratch
Moderator
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Loc: Maryland
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I thought South Florida depended upon a crossing over Eastern Cuba. Now that it's following the forecast track and crossing Western Cuba, how does that continue to support your theory of a South Florida hit?
I'm not egging you on, I'm not flaming, I'm just honestly curious how you've developed this theory of yours.
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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It is onshore...right near Trinidad, Cuba. Which is further east than predicted by the track at 11am.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Will come pretty dang close to if not directly to the Keys...last I looked they were still considered part of Fl...believe Key west is the "southernmost point".
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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If you go back to my earlier thread,you will see I said eastern or central Cuba.And it is NOT western Cuba is it?
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Fri Jul 08 2005 05:43 PM)
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G. J.
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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Does anyone have any maps concerning storm surge prediction charts for the FL west coast? I see we will be having pretty good high tides even without a storm 
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gfox
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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Maybe this is self-serving, since I'm a scientist (but not a meteorologist), but it seems to me that the meteorologists do an impressive job, considering the complexity of the systems involved and the difficulty of taking enough measurements. No, they can't predict with certainty exactly what's going to happen, but if we didn't have meteorologists and models, I don't have any doubt that there'd be much more death and destruction from these storms. We'd also have much more needless panic.
There's inherently a great deal of uncertainty in areas like meteorology. The scientists (but not necessarily the TV meteorologists) are usually pretty clear about which part of their statements they have confidence in and which part they don't. There's no question about it: the storm MAY trash my (Tampa) house this weekend, but I think it's exceptionally valuable that we have science that can tell us that, at present, that's fairly unlikely.
>almost EVERYONE with any kind of "certified" knowledge on anything....usually is the most unqualified in my book!!!
Well, to each their own, but I doubt that you take your car to get fixed by a plumber.
To make the point more seriously: meteorology is inherently probabilistic. There are times when they are more able to predict details of events and times when they are less able. What they do get remarkably well are the broad outlines (it's likely to rain in central FL tomorrow, or is likely to stay west of the peninsula), and sometimes even the details. It'd be nice if they could tell us with assurance what's going to happen, but deciding that they know nothihng because they can't know everything really isn't a sensible conclusion.
Bottom line: of course you should stay prepared and watchful, and don't be astonished if there is a surprise or two in the events. But I don't think it's reasonable to argue that meteorologists are somehow in a conspiracy to fool people in peninsular Florida into complacency!
Gordon
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Dr. Gordon A. Fox
Department. of Biology
University of South Florida
4202 E. Fowler Ave.
Tampa, FL 33620
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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our local forecasters....saying its not going to impact florida...but channel 10 ...www.tampabay10.com is the only site who still has florida in the cone....altho doesnt have florida in the cone.... 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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FL_Grasshopper
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Loc: Tarpon Springs, Fl
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Hello All, been a lurker for a couple of years now and I am so impressed with the knowledge here. I have a question for the "experts". I live on the gulf coast in a large house that faces south, it is about 10' in elevation. How concerned do i need to be? I am also in charge of our "hurricane prep" for our office, (less than 2 miles from the water). Now I know I am in the cone I am just wondering what the general opinion is as to the effects I am likely to see.
Thanks so much...
godspeed to all in the way of this monster....
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Encarta had a decent map of Cuba. From the sat image it appears that the eye made landfall to the west of the Sierra De Trinidad mountains, south of El Retiro, near Ganas. This looks to be about 10 mi to the east of Cienfuegos
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Ahh well its all symantics but Key West and the Panhandle are all part of Florida. If not our state would look awful funny..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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I feel it's premature to call as such yet...think it does a diservice to the general public who rely on their local mets & ...they even said 30 minutes ago only some rain for Fl????...let's see what happens after Cuba.
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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Bryan, TX
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2pm still has it as a cat4 and weakened to 145mph, 941mb... "making landfall"
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Brad Shumbera
Edited by VandyBrad (Fri Jul 08 2005 05:53 PM)
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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Fl grasshopper... this is for my area, but it is the same statement everywhere:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?wa...Local+Statement
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cheers
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Baudelaire
Registered User
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Quote:
our local forecasters....saying its not going to impact florida...but channel 10 ...www.tampabay10.com is the only site who still has florida in the cone....altho doesnt have florida in the cone....
There's more to FL than central or southern Florida. Last time I checked, where I live, Destin , was still considered FL. 
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nccathy
Registered User
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Could you please direct me to the site you are monitoring this on. I am having trouble getting satellite images to load and none are more recent than an hour ago.
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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well im sorry i should have more clear on that....i sincerely apologize.....but what im basically saying is that "besides" the panhandle....florida is not in the cone anywhere but on channel 10....imsorry and stay safe...
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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CarlSpackler
Registered User
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i don't think the heavy stuff is going to come down for quite a while now
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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center is STILL off the coast. Has not come onshore as of 2pm. It could in next 30 min or stay hugging it.
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Lysis
User
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Loc: Hong Kong
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Flamommy... keep in mind that just because it is improbable at this point that central Florida will get slammed with a direct hit by does not mean that it will receive "no impact" whatsoever.
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cheers
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Scott,I think you are looking at older images,someone just complained about that.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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