jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Dennis will still probably be a 3 when he makes landafall. What are the water temps like in the central gulf? 83-85 I believe...plenty warm to strengthen again.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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There are too may factors - troughs, highs, land - that factor into where hurricanes trek. If it were as simple as steering currents, all models would converge.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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WFTV queued up the radar wind estimate on queue there. Still showing a good core of hurricane winds and a pretty wide area of 100 and higher winds. Still maintaining better then I would expect after this long.
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Jim
Edited by Rasvar (Sat Jul 09 2005 01:48 AM)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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that from this morning though, right?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Dennis slowed down at the 9pm advisory...and he looks even slower now. The question is this: how long will he stay over Cuba and if the trough does pick him up, how far south will it have had time to dive and how much more of the erosion of the EC high pressure will have occured?
Remember earlier in the week they talked about it stalling and meandering...well, maybe this is what it is doing. I wouldn't say it's moving in true WNW direction..it's hardly moving at all from looking at it.
I guess it's a crapshoot...maybe it'll end up in Mexico by the time this is all over with. Sheesh! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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MarcoResi
Weather Watcher
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My Dad thinks it will stall just of the coast of cuba and head into the west gulf as a cat 2
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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I understand that...the question was if a hurricane is steered by SST's or atmospheric levels. Lord help us if they were all steered by SST's!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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I'm hearing a possible Panama City landfall early Sunday am. But in the 00Z runs look like the has shifted back to the left. Is anyone here getting any of this?
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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Evening all, been in and out all day. Just an fyi, since 8/1745 basically initial land time N 22.0 W 80.6,,,8/2345 N 22.8 W 81.6 basically 2 degrees W for every 1 N. .8 N,,,1.6 W
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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If does stall... would the west coast of Florida be at an increased risk?
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I wonder how useful high level recon is in this storm right now if Dr. Lyons is correct. Unfortunately, that would mean all of the storm dynamics are occuring at a level below where we can have recon. Air Force Reserve can not resume low level recon in the center until after the storm clears the Cuban coast.
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Jim
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
The way the storm moves is all dependent on the steering flows..rigdes/troughs etc. Think of a Cat 4 in the Atlantic Ocean in September...the water temps may be extremely high, but it's the steering currents in the atmosphere that determine where it goes.
Thanks. So basically a hurricane won't steer towards warmer water, but if it happens to go over the warmer water, then that will help it intensify.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Tornado watches for inland central Fl till 9 a.m.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
Dennis slowed down at the 9pm advisory...and he looks even slower now. The question is this: how long will he stay over Cuba and if the trough does pick him up, how far south will it have had time to dive and how much more of the erosion of the EC high pressure will have occured?
Remember earlier in the week they talked about it stalling and meandering...well, maybe this is what it is doing. I wouldn't say it's moving in true WNW direction..it's hardly moving at all from looking at it.
I guess it's a crapshoot...maybe it'll end up in Mexico by the time this is all over with. Sheesh!
From Clarks Blog today, he said the storm may slow down as it approaches the SE Gulf - He didn't think it was likely to stall. The significance of the slowing down is that it may be changing course to a more northward movement since it is approaching the edge of the Ridge. Hmmm...
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RJB
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Are you talking about this Tornado watch, #626 would be for South Florida.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0626_radar.gif
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
I wonder how useful high level recon is in this storm right now if Dr. Lyons is correct. Unfortunately, that would mean all of the storm dynamics are occuring at a level below where we can have recon. Air Force Reserve can not resume low level recon in the center until after the storm clears the Cuban coast.
I guess it will be mid-morning tomorrow before there will be any clues where it might hit on the Gulf Coast. I am worried if it gets west of Cuba it will be on a track like or Camille, and be a threat to my brother in Pascagoula, plus will have more of an opportunity to intensify because of the warmer water.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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I know nobody even wants to think or here of this right now. Mets, anything long range say around 144 hrs north of Va putting this into the Atl?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Elaine H
Verified CFHC User
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Seems strange that tornado warnings would only be until 9am. After all Denis will not even be parallel to central until tomorrow afternoon at the latest
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John C
Unregistered
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Just came in from outside looking up at the clouds here in Cocoa, very eerie !
Extremely low clouds traveling at a good clip.
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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I would expect most of the state from Orlando down will be under watches all night and all day tomorrow..
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