Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Margie...if the storm passes east of Havana, you are right...the winds will begin shoving all that water into the coast. It would be MUCH better for it to past to the west of Havana.
Didn't see your earlier post about SST's...so I'm not sure what the question was. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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susieq
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Panhandle
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There is a distinct shift to the west, but until the eyewall clears the coast, we can't be sure.
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Sombrero Key winds at 9 PM 51 knots sustained, gusting to 57
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RJB
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I've been watching the live radar on WFTV DT 9.2. Looks like a general NW course with wobbles WNW. However, I think that he may stay over land a little more then expected. I would not be surprised to see a cat 2 system when it emerges. Some nasty squalls along south Florida right now. that would explain the gust at Flamingo.
It is looking more and more like the Keys will be spared hurricane force winds. I am still leaning towards a landfall near Billoxi. Maybe MS/AL border. However, I think with conditions in the area, he will be a low Cat 3 high Cat 2 at landfall.
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Jim
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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it seems to be slowing down so it may take it a little longer to clear the coast and if it is moving more westerly that will also add time to it treck across cuba.
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mbfly
Weather Guru
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Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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I have heard mandatory evacuation in Mobile County for everyone south of 1-10 
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MarcoResi
Weather Watcher
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Loc:
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 Getting some nasty lightning here now must be a new band comin off him!
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Margie...if the storm passes east of Havana, you are right...the winds will begin shoving all that water into the coast. It would be MUCH better for it to past to the west of Havana.
Didn't see your earlier post about SST's...so I'm not sure what the question was.
Thanks for replying. I was wondering if the storm would steer towards areas of warmer SST, or if the higher atmosphere is more of a key in determining the storm's path.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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The models are jumping again. The has moved clear to Southern Mississippi. Also...the track is farther west in Cuba than thought. Dr Steve says since the cloud tops have lowered to 35,000 ft, is following the low level flow more than the upper level flow, thus more west than north.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Last few radar jogs seem to be barely north of west, though. I think is looking to menace El Presidente.
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Jim
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
I've been reviewing the long range Key West radar, and it is amazing to me how little northward progress has made. If you freeze the frames in between and oscillate between the first and last frame, you will notice that is moving with a true WNW motion right now. And to my bare eye, the storm also seems to be slowing.
EDIT: Key West radar link:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml
No doubt about the recent W-NW motion - but is it a wobble or real shift? Looks like it wants to run over Havana for some reason
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RJB
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
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What's going to change the obvious WNW direction now? It seems like could go out into the Western Gulf now.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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The way the storm moves is all dependent on the steering flows..rigdes/troughs etc. Think of a Cat 4 in the Atlantic Ocean in September...the water temps may be extremely high, but it's the steering currents in the atmosphere that determine where it goes.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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i think the same thing.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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A ESE gust of 36mph here in Ft laud.Had a bad feeder come through Broward around 6:00pm.Rain was blowing side ways and very windy.I was inland at the time.Amazing even that far away.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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MarcoResi
Weather Watcher
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Loc:
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hope Fidel's put hes shutters up! 
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Dennis will still be picked up by the trough in the Gulf. It may just be a bit farther west, but probably not much. Also, it will not be a 3 when it reenters the gulf.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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Just saw Dr. Steve. He said they believed the more W direction is due to the lessening of the height of the cloud tops and being affected by more lower level winds.
Expert comments?
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I am not even sure it is a Cat 3 right now. The long trek over Cuba is spinning off a lot of energy. Speaking of spinning, looks to be a lot of tornadic signatures on radar in the eye wall right now.
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Jim
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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A tornado WARNING was just issued for north Miami-dade.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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