Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The atmospheric dynamics associated with the movement of Hurricane have become rather complex this afternoon and evening. Shortly after making landfall in Cuba, began to weaken, as expected, and began to take on a more west northwesterly direction - not necessarily expected. Some will attribute this to a building Atlantic ridge, but I'm not so sure. During the day on Friday the center of the western extension of the ridge move off to the east northeast - again, as expected. However I believe that when was a powerful Cat IV hurricane, he was compressing the western extention of that ridge. When weakened after landfall, the compression relaxed and the ridge began to dominate once again and move the hurricane more to the west northwest. That process still continues as , which still has about three more hours on land (as of 02Z this evening), continues to weaken and move toward Havana. This jog to the west northwest, resulting in a weaker storm when it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, is certainly at least initial good news for residents along the west coast of Florida. BUT - will certainly reintensify when he gets into the Gulf and probably start the compression process again.
There is another dynamic factor or two. Southwesterly shear, easily apparent on satellite imagery, extends from the northern Yucatan to Cape San Blas (near Apalachicola). Dry air is evident to the west of this shear zone. At this moment, the future track of can only be described as very uncertain. If gains strength again when he enters the Gulf (and there is no reason to believe that he will not), the movement could again become northwesterly - and eventually northerly and perhaps even north northeasterly as the southwesterly flow is encountered - which could still put some portion of northern Florida in harms way this weekend. If intensifies enough, he could shove the shear zone (possibly a part of the - its still early in the season) to the north and allow the hurricane to take a more northerly direction. The bottom line is that everyone from Louisiana to Florida still needs to monitor the evolution of this dangerous hurricane and be prepared to take appropriate actions if he should head your way.
ED
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