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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Precautionary Measures [Re: danielw]
      #40687 - Sat Jul 09 2005 10:53 AM

That was the problem with Ivan. They had all the NO folks going up the only MS central escape route (to Hattiesburg) ,instead of going west to ARK & TX...this caused a huge problem for MS Gulf Coasters trying to leave. Weird, isn't it?

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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sat Jul 09 2005 10:58 AM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Precautionary Measures [Re: Margie]
      #40688 - Sat Jul 09 2005 10:56 AM

hurricane center says it will not make it back to a major hurricane. A hign 2 is most probable. Still, thats about what the winds were here 35 miles east of Ivans landfall.

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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Terra
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Precautionary Measures [Re: Margie]
      #40689 - Sat Jul 09 2005 10:57 AM

But, the thing is, now... it seems, only people coming from I-10 through Slidell can go to Hattiesburg, only people coming from Metairie/Kenner over the Spillway can go on I-10 towards Baton Rouge/Houston, and essentially everyone else (people from Metairie/Kenner that cross the Causeway, people from Slidell, St. Tammany, etc.) have to go the Jackson. And, there's one point, where everyone coming from Slidell has to get on US Hwy-190, the most clogged road in Covington during normal traffic, so those coming from the Causeway can get on 1-12.... It's really weird. What if I wanted to take I-10 west to evacuate.... From where I live, it's not possible.

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Terra Dassau Cahill


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: models and probabilities [Re: HanKFranK]
      #40690 - Sat Jul 09 2005 10:57 AM

Quote:

as far as the probs going higher on the central gulf, margie.. that's because the hurricane is closer. those forecast probs are a function of where the official track is and how many days away the storm is... it's closer now, so higher confidence even though the forecast has only shifted back to the left a little. the forecast track hasn't deviated much for four days now.
HF 1535z09july




Thanks Hank. That makes me feel a little better...but even though the forecast hasn't deviated, the models have. But I'll take seasoned expertise over estimates from computer models (see, I'm in IT!).

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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 341
Loc: Maryland
Map [Re: LadyStorm]
      #40691 - Sat Jul 09 2005 10:57 AM

Quite useful - to use the vernacular, it's pimp!

Any chance of changing the hurricane category graphics? They are a bit on the large side and partially obscure the original tracks (thinking to if you ever wanted to compare 4 or more storms there).

If Skeetobite isn't around, I could knock something out quickly. You should have my email address.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Precautionary Measures [Re: Margie]
      #40692 - Sat Jul 09 2005 10:57 AM

starting to see the eye now!!!! latest vis

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/rmtcrso/129.jpg

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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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richisurfs
Weather Guru


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Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: models and probabilities [Re: HanKFranK]
      #40693 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:00 AM

HankFrank....Thanks for stepping in as one with a voice of authority and cooling this guy down some. I just don't really understand some people. "Hiding behind the models"? What's that even mean?

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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #40694 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:00 AM

I was out rowing this morning in my scull on Lake Fairview in Orlando. Just going along my merry way when I saw this squall coming across the lake. Of course, I was on the other side of the lake from the dock, so I hauled over there as fast as I could. It caught me, and there were 45 mph winds, which drove the rain into you like needles. HAha, good ole' hurricanes, always a load of fun.

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Derek Sutherland


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msmith43
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 18
Loc: South Tampa
Re: models and probabilities [Re: turkeyman]
      #40695 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:00 AM

(off-topic post removed - please stay on topic. On this site you can hammer the post but not the poster. If you hammer the poster, you get the hammer ).
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 09 2005 11:18 AM)


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HumanCookie
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 17
Re: it'll be a cat 4-5...and tracking more west [Re: MikeC]
      #40696 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:01 AM

Good job Mike. I like it.

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Dennis' Motion (or lack thereof) [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #40697 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:02 AM

It appears to be getting stronger on radar...Does anyone else see this slowing down of the storm? I said drifting west in a prior post, but it may actually be W-SW

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RJB


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 946
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Precautionary Measures [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #40698 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:03 AM

11 AM advisory is indicating a more NNW path later tonight into tomorrow. Waiting for the discussion and model output.

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Michael

PWS


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 184
Re: Dennis' Motion (or lack thereof) [Re: Ron Basso]
      #40699 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:05 AM

I thought he appeared a bit south as well...I know there was mention of apossibility of stalling...but I'll admit to TOTALLY not knowing what I'm talking about...just observing & trying to learn.

BTW...like the new map Mike.


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susieq
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
Re: Dennis' Motion (or lack thereof) [Re: twizted sizter]
      #40700 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:09 AM

Do any of you think it could make landfall as a Cat 3 or higher given what we know now?

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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan


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adogg76
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 53
Re: models and probabilities [Re: richisurfs]
      #40701 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:10 AM

wellll.....weather was forecast before computers.......remember....before pc.....

And I am not trying to instill the last minute fear that mainstream media does.....we ARE under a tornado threat till 4pm.....is it very professional to advise someone to COME to a tornado watchbox?????

Did someone not like my comment on food quality and service, I am sorry....have only been a chef for 10 years........

I make no claim to be a MET or a pro.....I like weather is all.....have since TWC came to our lives!!!

if this is some sort of "secret meterological society", i will gladly stop enjoying the data and information flow on this site....but really, walk outside and tell how beautiful a day it is.....hmmmm

HanKfranK has talked with me before, and I assure you all.......fear is not my game, but if someone asks if they should be driving down 95 set for O-town with all the family in tow.......I say.....wait for the Tornado Watch to expire.....

Is that more palatable.....?
hiding behind a model means one can "pass the buck" on when they are wrong about the forecast.......

Thankfully.....it seems I am wrong in my thoughts...I said it!!! Although there is still a lot of activity well east of the eye.....


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HanKFranK
User


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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
radar/sat imagery [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #40702 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:10 AM

i'm not sure why the NHC dropped their major hurricane progs given how much the storm has improved since midnight. the inner core convection has come back, and the secondary bands are contracting towards the center on the east side of the storm... also squeezing out that subsidence that has been suppressing convection on the western side of the storm.
well, hold that thought. just read the 11am discussion... they're just going conservative, but the forecast is implicit that it will be a fringe major hurricane at landfall. i think they're going a little low... my best bet is that the storm impacts the same general area at the same general intensity as eloise in 1975. i don't see this thing hitting at above 960mb, but not below 945 or so either. next center fix if the pressure is edging 960 i'd be pretty sure this is on cue. official still taking it over near pensacola.. think 60-70 miles east, which isn't all that different, but worse for the PCB area than destin-penscola. the disco comments about some of the models not initializing the features near the western gulf correctly shades the members to the right... sound enough that i'll go with it.
HF 1610z09july


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EaglezFan42
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 43
Loc: St Petersburg, FL (Jungle Terr...
Re: Dennis' Motion (or lack thereof) [Re: twizted sizter]
      #40703 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:10 AM

i see what youse guys are talking about. on the key west radar, it looks like a very slow jog to the west over the past hour

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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Dennis' Motion (or lack thereof) [Re: twizted sizter]
      #40704 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:11 AM

Despite the models and apparent motion, the NHC forecast shifted slightly right... The discussion does a good job of explaining things.

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Terra Dassau Cahill


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Kevin
Weather Master


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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: radar/sat imagery [Re: HanKFranK]
      #40705 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:13 AM

Latest disco also mentioned that Dennis is over slightly cooler water, but this will transition to warmer water in the next 18 hours. 110 or 115 mph, areas damaged by Ivan still aren't looking too good at this point.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 946
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: radar/sat imagery [Re: HanKFranK]
      #40706 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:14 AM

The 11 AM probabilities have increased for Apalachicola and decreased for Pensacola. Interesting to note.

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Michael

PWS


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