G'afternoon all, sorry about not being around until now. sure weakened over Cuba, but maintained its inner core all the while. It is currently in the process of spinning back up, though it likely will not reach the "heights" that it once did. Re-strengthening to category 3 status is likely, however, before the storm passes north of Tampa. After that, increasing shear and slightly cooler waters should cap intensity, perhaps even lessen it some (as hurricanes are wont to do in the N Gulf), bringing the storm in likely at borderline cat 2/3 status sometime tomorrow. Last recon observation has the pressure at 962mb.
There's no real change to my previous forecast reasoning from yesterday afternoon, highlighting the trough versus the storm & ridge. Flow is still out of the south & south-southwest along much of the Gulf coast and, unless eats into the flow, should cause the storm to turn more northerly. Satellite appearance and radar trends suggest that this may already be happening. I believe the storm will likely come in slightly east of the current projected path, possibly scraping much of the coast from Apalachicola to Ft. Walton Beach along the way. Tornadoes will continue to be a threat across much of Florida for the rest of the day, with locally heavy rains likely up to 120 miles east of where the storm makes landfall.
After landfall, this storm has the potential to be a major flooding event for the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. In the long-term, we may see another storm form out in the Atlantic, perhaps once it gets to ~50W, but it's too far down the line to speculate at this point. Let's figure out first and go from there.
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