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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Frank P]
      #41074 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:00 PM

Agreed! My IR sat looks to be a N mvt. and longer that a wobble.

JK just now metioned the north motion being possible so it may be so.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Jul 09 2005 08:02 PM)


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #41075 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:02 PM

that isjust what i was thinking... ?this is a long wobble?

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: hurricane_run]
      #41076 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:04 PM

I just looked at the water vapor loop... I agree with you guys, looks like a definite move north... lets see if it continues...

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MichaelA
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Frank P]
      #41077 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:06 PM

Last frame of the radar loop shows a NW movement again.

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Michael

PWS


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pcola
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Frank P]
      #41078 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:07 PM

It looks like Dennis is taking steps.. Ivan did this..but from the other direction..looks like he is still pretty close to the NHC track

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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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BillD
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Frank P]
      #41079 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:07 PM

The 8:00 PM Position is 26.2 N 85.0 W, 7:00 PM was 26.1 N 84.9 W.

Update: I thought I should include the actual statement, since the NHC is using the same tool we are (radar) to make this determination!

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST AND TAMPA
INDICATE THE EYE OF HURRICANE Dennis WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH
OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI
MISSISSIPPI.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Bill

Edited by BillD (Sat Jul 09 2005 08:13 PM)


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CentralFlorida
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Frank P]
      #41080 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:09 PM

I agree with the north movement was just watching the local tampa doppler radar. http://www.baynews9.com/StateDoppler.html

now looks like back to nw movement

--------------------
Survived Charley, Jeanne, Frances, Ivan and my Wife


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: BillD]
      #41081 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:11 PM

It's defintely moving more north, but it cannot be considered more than a wobble at this point. When it moved west for 9 hours over Cuba it was a wobble and everyone disputed the westward movement. Now it moves north for 30 minutes and it's a definitive movement??

It's surely trending more north, but will it hold......that's the question.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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Allison
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Clark]
      #41082 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:11 PM

Quote:

stormchazer -- probably just a sign of the differentiation between the well-defined core of the storm and an outer convective band and not a sign of dry air entrainment. I could be wrong, but I don't believe that there is dry air becoming entrained into the storm.




The last few frames of the WV loop shows dry air building in the Bay of Campeche. But you're right, it doesn't appear to be affecting Dennis at this time.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

Allison

Edited by Allison (Sat Jul 09 2005 08:13 PM)


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G. J.
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: pcola]
      #41083 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:12 PM

What is crazy to me, is that this monster is just SW of Tampa. I know it's not going to come my way, but damn if it did it would absolutely cause pandamonium on a scale never seen before. It's soo close to me right now, and no harm (yet), but it will be reaking havok on someone far away in 24 hours. Crazy.

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Frank P
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: pcola]
      #41084 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:14 PM

If he is wobbling between N and NW then it averages out to be NNW, which is basically what the NHC has forecasted.... we are looking at this system very hard tonight... my evacuation plan will be to leave early in the am before 5:00 am and ride out the storm at the MS Power Plant, where my wife works... but only if it deviates any at all from the NHC forecast track to the west... there will be no sleep tonight I'm pretty sure... worse case scenario would be for Dennis to hit to our west, which would probably put a surge of 15-18 feet along the MS Coast... I'm 20 feet above sea level on the beach... not a very pleasent thought.... my prayers and thoughts go out to the poor unfortunate people of the Panhandle and the Al coast... tomorrow will be an historic weather event

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: BillD]
      #41085 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:15 PM

Incredible transformation last few hours http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...&duration=0

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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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EaglezFan42
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Loc: St Petersburg, FL (Jungle Terr...
Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: G. J.]
      #41086 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:15 PM

agreed G.J.

it almost seems surreal.


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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Loc: USA
Pressure Drop [Re: Frank P]
      #41087 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:15 PM

Minimum Pressure: 942 Millibars (27.816 Inches) pressure down i think this will qualify as expolsive deepening

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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Frank P]
      #41088 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:16 PM

I know a few here who won't sleep much

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Frank P]
      #41089 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:16 PM

hurricane hunters say pressure has dropped another 5mb

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #41090 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:18 PM

Storm, you are definitely in harms way Buddy...

good luck


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Littlebit
Weather Watcher


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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: G. J.]
      #41091 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:20 PM

I agree also G.J. I'm in Plant City and it's very scary to see this monster so close on the radar. We've had some pretty good feeder bands through here with some major wind gusts. A few branches down, but that's it so far. Can't wait until it gets past us. My thoughts and prayers go out to all in Dennis' path. Stay safe everyone!

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sprghill
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Littlebit]
      #41093 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:22 PM

is there anyway this could make a hard right and go for tampa

Edited by danielw (Sat Jul 09 2005 08:34 PM)


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stormchazer
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: sprghill]
      #41094 - Sat Jul 09 2005 08:25 PM

Could if conditions were right. Conditions are not right! It could pass a little closer then forecast but is going North so relax....but be attentive!

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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