Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
Now, if you are thoroughly lost, here is the skinny of it...the blended output of several various model whcih disagree in the shorter term, ALL bring Izzy to the NW Florida Gulf Coast eventually...with STAGGERING agreement on location, if not time.
As usual Jason, you've outdone yourself...good show. This is both reassuring (I live E-Central Fla) and scarey at the same time. Any time a major storm is within a strone's throw from my trailer, I get antsy and make preparations to not only evaculate, but move my belongings to safer shelter where possible.
I guess the question begs: Why? IE, What is going to move the storm back East and North? Is it the "3rd" trough that isn't even on the maps yet that will do the deed or as a major storm making its' own weather tending to go north a bigger factor?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Shawn,
Just ignore the "wishcasting" comments directed at you.
I enjoy reading your posts as well as everyone elses. I am here trying to better understand the entire hurricane processes period.
Kimster
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Why?
The main reason is the general global synoptic setup...there are gonna be continuous smaller trofs (shortwaves to us weather goobers) that are gonna swing by Izzy over the longer term...as long as that flow pattern continues (which there is a model consensus that it will, no matter HOW long Izzy stays in the Gulf), as soon as Izzy gets far enough north, he is gonna be picked up by one of them...be it the first or the 7th or the 30th or whatever...unless the troffing over the east breaks down completely or is substancially weaker than all the data we have points to, there is gonna have to be a north AND east component at some point.
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Jason Kelley
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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GM Jason,
Very interesting forecast ensembles. I don't particularly like what I see. Cat. 5? A nightmare does not properly define what that would be like.
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FlaRebel
Unregistered
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I know it's still to early to call, but I appreciate Jason's hard work. This my friends is scaring the bejesus out of me. Will be a weekend spent switching between the games and the Weather Channel.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I heard it mentioned once or twice last season. Have not really heard much about this one this year. I'm assuming it is still in the experimental phase; but I just never hear anything about it anymore.
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Jim
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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It's there...and I have been looking at it, but the public access to it leaves to be desired...for what it's worth, it joins in the previous consensus...
BTW, I'm NOT predicting this thing to be a Cat 5...those are a totally different animal, and the atmospheric conditions have to be PERFECT to happen...all model data show a trend for SOME weakening prior to landfall...however, landfall as a 3 or 4 is bad enough.
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Jason Kelley
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SirCane1
Unregistered
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Isidore is going to go where he wants to go. Just looking at the model maps give me a headache. They do not have a good handle on him. I'm thinking anywhere from Apalachicola to New Orleans at the time.
Yes I do see conditions as favorable for a CAT 4 or 5. That water is COOKING folks.
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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
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Food for thought...a couple of theories....Historically, tropical storms that were born where Izzy was have been very hard to predict. Beginning in the 1900's a total of about 6 major storms followed the same paths as of today, however unlike the forcasted tracking, those storms ended up, at least 4 out of the 6, crossing Florida. I'm not too convinced of the forcasted paths as of yet. Another theory is the old "100 year flood" theory. It was probably one of those historic storms crossing Florida in the early 1900's that was the last so called 100 year flood...It is 2002...do the math....please comment...
cyclone_head (Rick)
Edited by cyclone_head (Fri Sep 20 2002 01:53 PM)
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home
This is for system SE of Bermuda and it may form into a subtropical or tropical system but be a fish.
But what I am watching more is the that is active again and maybe something comes out of there but the cv season is almost over and there is much hostil conditions but you never know so from here in Puerto Rico I will watch just in case.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Gonna take a break for a couple of hours...need to remind my kids that their daddy still loves them more than the weather!
For those of you who have made nice comments, thank you...and I must say that all of you help me more than I could possibly help you....hearing all the ideas and questions and such helps me focus on the problem, and hunt down solutions...the level of interest and knowledge on here is excellent. You should all be very proud.
See you all around Noon CDT...Get those questions ready!
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I couldn't get those models posted earlier. Where in NW FL do they have a cat 5 and excatly how strong?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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B. Jesus? Wasn't that dude with Motown 
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Anon,
Here's the link Jason posted earlier:
http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/super/index.html
Change the time, I believe it projects out to 144 hours.
Kimster
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Brett
Unregistered
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Well, looks like my prediction for a northward job last night was wrong, which I will be the first to admit. Looking at all the models and the images today, I am slowly starting to agree with the WSW theory, which I wasn't buying before. Especially with the mention of the ridge to the north of Isidore. Unless this thing shift a bit more north, and stalls just north of Cuba, I think it is going to meander slowly WSW, and head towards the Yucatan. Whether it moves ashore, or does the loop di loop, is anyone's guess. I'm watching intently for any changes in the track. Anyone have any ideas as to what, if anything, will cause it to deviate from the NW motion prior to 36 hours when the steering collapses? I think where the center ends up in 36 hrs. is going to have a lot to say about his path later next week.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Quick question. I know most people are saying that the trough won't affect Izzy. My question is that the front and Izzy seem to be on a collision course. What happens when they meet? I don't think I would want to be in that head on collision.
Thanks,
Keith
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hey Cyc,
AVN has a "strong" wave around your island by mid of next week...
cc
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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NHC now says that Izzy has maxed out for the next 24 hours. Also, the TS watch for Keys is lifted and one is posted for the Yucatan. Interesting. I still think that no matter how long it sits out there, Izzy eventually has to come north.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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You know you have it bad when you DREAM about troughs and ridges...;-) Sheesh. I am going to take a 30 minute break (like it's a job or something, LOL) and look at it again.
My neice, who just turned 1, has a favorite word: ISIT. (iz-it). I asked my sister if she would PLEASE give Cameron a tracking map, then say to her "ISIT?". Wherever Cameron's finger lands, that's where the storm will go.
Different from the way the does things, but at this point, it could prove to be JUST as accurate as anything else we've seen. And we've seen ALOT. Although she IS my neice and my godchild, I daresay that in a battle between this particular 1 year old vs. a model ensemble for accuracy would lead me to lean towards Cameron's idea...because she is very strong willed and usually gets what she wants. :-)
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Brett
Unregistered
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Colleen you just may be on to something there hehe.
I just looked at the IR and the Water Vapor for the GOM...and I have to say I agree with some of the posters here....and am rethinking my WSW prediction above. The ULL is clear on the water vapor, and those are some MAJOR thunderstorms in mexico, moving east. If you look at the clouds currently over the Yucatan, on the last few images, they being to move north and east. I just don't see Isadore not being influenced, at least a little, by the approaching ULL from the front. Just seems like it may move a bit north before that front dies.
Thoughts?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
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