AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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TD 5 looking decently organized, especially on IR. Will probably become Emily at some point. Where she tracks is obviously dependant on a number of factors that aren't anywhere near 100% certain this far out.
My thoughts and prayers go out to everyone affected by .
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Check the Surf
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Responses are locked down to only registered users again.
Other forums are still open. I'd like to leave this as open as possible folks. But don't need people to derail everything. I'm familiar with how much larger forums work, and I can do moderation that way if it would be better. With much more use of the banhammer but I'd rather not. May institute probations (timed periods where a user cannot post) and ban warnings into this.
However I tend to hope most people don't need it, so in the past I've left it open to make it easier for folks to comment.
This site isn't super serious, it's just a website and anyone can do something similar with the effort, but I read it too, and I can spot when things degrade it.
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smitter
Registered User
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Posts: 1
Loc: Birmingham Michigan
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Did anyone notice how Fox pulled a live clip of max mayfield while he was in the middle of a sentence, to go to a hurricane update. How Rude. He's the expert.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i don't like the idea of having to go to lockdown; i don't think any of the admins do either. try not to bait anybody (or be baited) into useless bickering. if people get really out of hand us mod/admin types will respond appropriately.
out in the east atlantic... holding off on upgrading t.d. 5. it's already trending weaker/more southerly than the initial progs. in the end all that does is shift the threat west and south. the larger islands are more likely targets as time goes by. they'll add lots of chaos to track/intensity. some of the models have been running it more w than anything else... my reckoning is that it stays west until deepening, then starts wnw/nw.. until the building ridge to the north smooths it's track on wnw. joe b has it keeping low, getting as far as the western gulf. i dunno.. maybe something in between.
i've noticed that the disturbance to the se of t.d 5 is dragging on it some.. and if it were at a more appreciable latitude would be favored for development. not doing a thing unless it gets to the north.. may influence the t.d. 5 track in the short term. the 11am two even mentions it.
the wave coming off africa isn't a completely discrete entity.. involved with a sort of monsoon trough right now. there is still as much/more model support for this feature than t.d. 5/future emily. joe b has it acting up, going more to the north.
intuition is that we'll have systems five and six this week. the fun never stops.
HF 1653z11july
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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This is a great link for all of your discussion info (( DUH )) http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/forecast.html
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
Edited by Tazmanian93 (Mon Jul 11 2005 04:02 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Have we ever had 2 Hurricanes hit the U.S. at almost the same time?Nothing would surprise me at this point.And, any thoughts about this year breaking the record for most named storms?
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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TAZMAN
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Clermont, Fl
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I truly agree !!! the unregistered should not be allowed to post in any fashion. I have watched this site and have been lurking in the background for over 2 years.. Thanks to all ! and yes, it is way to addicting!
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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Looks possibly like a 1979 Arthur? I know, I know it's early, just saying it looks like it LOL. I asked this ? of the Mets/Pros late last week. Did you see anything long range putting back into the Atl (still asking) Also, what would the outcome of leftover and possible Emily running into each othe beneath the High Ridge. Perhaps an opportunity for me to learn something.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Quote:
Have we ever had 2 Hurricanes hit the U.S. at almost the same time?Nothing would surprise me at this point.And, any thoughts about this year breaking the record for most named storms?
See last year. 3 weeks is the same time in terms of hurricanes.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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There's not a lot to force out into the Atlantic in the next few days -- it'd be a close call as to whether or not it gets out into the Atlantic in enough time (and in a strong enough state) to affect the future course of Emily at all. And, if they ran into each other...it'd likely be above the subtropical ridge, with some likely interaction between the two, peraps Emily absorbing ' remnants or Emily becoming absorbed by ' remnants and becomnig . Not likely, and well down the road, but still a possibility.
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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I guess time will tell.
Looking at the Visible loop, it looks like a Western Movement.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Looking at the WV loop, it looks WNW
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
:?:
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Agree!!! I don't see any southerly component in the pix..the convection 'ball' is moving wnw. The little feature to the southeast has a low associated with it too but not too much inter action.
No harm in not naming this for a day or so...perhaps it is better to wait at least one day..2004 storm fatigue seems to have set in again quickly...
TD 5 just has not pulled in the T numbers yet to justify the increase I guess.
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doug
Edited by doug (Mon Jul 11 2005 04:32 PM)
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Jeff- I missed Geraldo falling. That would be one - I wouldn't want to miss too. I did see though Anderson Cooper and his little buddy freaking out over the falling Ramada sign....almost like it was the end of the world. Quite sure there was much worse going on but you wouldn't know it becasue that was all they would talk about. The sign fell, the sign fell...
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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Quote:
Agree!!! I don't see any southerly component in the pix..the convection 'ball' is moving wnw. The little feature to the southeast has a low associated with it too but not too much inter action.
No harm in not naming this for a day or so...perhaps it is better to wait at least one day..2004 storm fatigue seems to have set in again quickly...
TD 5 just has not pulled in the T numbers yet to justify the increase I guess.
Why wait on naming it? The sooner its named, the sooner the Lesser Antilles can prepare.
And what if it had explosive deepening, yet the was still calling it a depression to give people a rest? That sounds like negligence to the safety of all.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Future Emily looks as if she's holding her own quite well. I see the southerly component but am not convinced it is veering southerly; it may be affected by weak easterlies.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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Looking at the satallite imagery, it appears the southerly component was just a wobble. I could be wrong, but I don't see any future ramifications to the track other than a little farther west by 5 PM advisory.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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It looked good enough to me in the pix I saw.to classify. I've seen less classified...but knows something we can't tell I guess, and there are consequences in naming a system which I'm sure they consider. As far as putting the islands on notice they did that with the initial track and intensity forecast didn't they?
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doug
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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The track puts them on guard. The upgrade puts them into ready mode and issuance of watches, warnings etc.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Loc: Altamonte Springs
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Quote:
The track puts them on guard. The upgrade puts them into ready mode and issuance of watches, warnings etc.
Playing devils advocate and trying to learn something:
Is the a global group? The name, National Hurricane Center, in my mind tells me it's an American organization. Why would another country care what we do? Wouldn't they have their equivalent to name or not name a storm? Unless my goegraphy is screwy and they are a part of us....
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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The works with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to coordinate watches and warnings for the entire Atlantic basin. We have the infrastructure to track, predict, and survey these storms, whereas many other nations do not. As such, by agreement with the WMO and its member nations -- pretty much the entire world, I believe -- the is tasked with the responsibility for these storms. It makes sense, as well, considering the US is directly impacted by many of these storms as well.
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