richisurfs
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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Quote:
so does this look like a stuart hit or vero beach? and how big is she gonna be? 
Sorry, but is this guy serious? He has got to be joking....right? I would hope so at least. I think we need to just watch and see the trend of this storm rather than trying to pinpoint the exact location of where it will hit a week and a half out. Even with the recent history, it's not a foregone conclusion that every storm that develops is going to hit Florida.
Edited by richisurfs (Mon Jul 11 2005 08:18 AM)
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LisaA
Registered User
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Posts: 9
Loc: Melbourne FL
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Yes, the kids are learning fast about hurricanes. I remember last year during a 13 day power outage, my then 2 yr. old asked me if we could put batteries in the TV... Any thunder storm after that they asked if we needed to go outside and board up.
I do love this site. It's informative yet addictive. My husband thinks I may have a problem...
I'll be watching TD#5's track and wishcasting it out to sea!
So glad simmered down a bit before landfall. We prayed on the way to church and our huge church prayed together for you all in the Panhandle.
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Moved to FL 7/04, unpacked and honkered down. Worth it to be in paradise!
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Lysis
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Hmm interesting post there about the names. I don't see any contigency plan for running out of names. I thought I had read about one somewhere once...anyone else know if there is a plan?
I read once that, if we ever go past 21, they will use the Greek alphabet... alpha, beta, etc. The NW pacific list seems strange to us, as it compromises local names from the region. I did a brief essay on the 2004 NW pacific typhoon season, and it was interesting to sit down with my Japanese teacher and figure out the nationality of the various names. It was much more diverse than our list. It's like we have our token minority name (jose) to please the ACLU or something. I like the name Ophelia (Shakespeare).
EDIT: Watch... jose will come and kill me for that.
hurricane names are for countries along the north atlantic basin. the united states is one of those... just the biggest. the aclu would be more interested in stuff like.. oh, suing somebody for spraypainting 'God deliver us' on a boarded up window on a public building or something. that's an unacceptable sentiment to express in this country, after all.
and yes, at this rate jose will come deliver your beatdown around august 20. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Jul 11 2005 10:56 AM)
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
I just can not believe what I am hearing,They say there will be another TS most likely by tommorow afternoon.Then another wave after that.What is going on here???It is July 10th for God's sake!!!If this keeps up and Ft Laud/Miami does not get hit,I will live here till I die,for this would be a blessed place,Protected by a higher power.
hahaha Bob, you always make me laugh... I lost power friday night for abut 7 hours, how did you fare?
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Jaime - I was laughing at your comment about a two year old being able to say hurricane. We had a huge vocabulary quiz this weekend with my 2 year old daughter. She can now say, flood, hurricane, tropical storm (with some difficulty), surge, winds and tunder (thunder)....isn't it amazing.
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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CV is Cape Verde on the African Coast.
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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I just can't believe that makes land fall and we are already looking at another system. I just wish Mother Nature could plan these things around the weekends. I feel like I get stuck inside two days and trust me,...trying to entertain a toddler under such conditions - isn't fun. Of course, knowing my boss, I would still have to work under Hurricane Watches.
At any rate, when are we going to see a decline in storms during a season again?? I heard everything from next year to 10 years to 25 years on the news this weekend and wondering where the truth is or if anyone really knows.....
To anyone and everyone effected by - Hope you are doing well and look forward to hearing your stories and seeing the pictures. Hopefully this will be the last of the storms you will see this season so you can get back to the recovery and rebuilding.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Emily will be born later today.Here we go again! 
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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knowing my boss, I would still have to work under Hurricane Watches.
I work at Florida Hospital, that's part of our employment. We are a service to the community and may be called on to stay at the hospital during emergency situations. Back in Feb I volunteered to work during every one of them..this is the best place to be.
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Katie... this is florida in the 1940's:
http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/historic/nws/images/wea00439.jpg
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Mon Jul 11 2005 10:01 AM)
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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you know lisa i thought my husband was the only one who thought i may have a problem;)....oh well they can get over it...
has anyone heard from rick and how hes doing?...
cant belive we have another one to track already but im having fun(so to speak) tracking these storms and learning about them. 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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I have to admit, although being a little fustrated on friday and saturday with loss of power and the news media.... That I must say the did a darn good job forcasting the track of from the jumpstart.
Does anyone have a link or links to compare the predicted path vs. the actual path...
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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poetdi
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 14
Loc: Maitland, FL
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Quote:
I just can't believe that makes land fall and we are already looking at another system. I just wish Mother Nature could plan these things around the weekends. I feel like I get stuck inside two days and trust me,...trying to entertain a toddler under such conditions - isn't fun. Of course, knowing my boss, I would still have to work under Hurricane Watches.
At any rate, when are we going to see a decline in storms during a season again?? I heard everything from next year to 10 years to 25 years on the news this weekend and wondering where the truth is or if anyone really knows.....
To anyone and everyone effected by - Hope you are doing well and look forward to hearing your stories and seeing the pictures. Hopefully this will be the last of the storms you will see this season so you can get back to the recovery and rebuilding.
I agree that after surviving 3 canes in 6 weeks last summer we are really over it - and I didn't even have to entertain a toddler! 
Your question about the cycles was addressed by a link in a post on the first page of messages for this thread called The Case Against Florida. I learned a lot from that link - hope it helps!
Diane
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
At any rate, when are we going to see a decline in storms during a season again??
I read the article that someone posted the other day, and Chris Landsea (his name... Landsea.... is even better than Terra for this field... maybe I could marry a relative of his and well, nevermind, I'll stop) says that: He expects about 3 major hurricanes to hit Florida from 2004-2010 and again from 2010-2020. That's about 1 every 2-3 years. The article, although not peer reviewed, presents interesting data.... so, if anyone missed it yesterday, here's the link:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/
So, storm trackers, get ready.... I hope initial forecasts for this season come true and there will be an El Nino event later in the season. But, until then, we're going to be very busy and sleep deprived, it would seem.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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Katie... this is florida in the 1940's:
http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/historic/nws/images/wea00439.jpg
Wow! That's amazing! That double loop-de-loop storm would have seriously ticked me off if I was watching it...
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
Edited by Shalafi (Mon Jul 11 2005 10:15 AM)
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 341
Loc: Maryland
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Rick checked in at some point yesterday. I think he was talking about trying to look around before curfew (or else lamenting that he couldn't because of curfew).
Check one of the last few threads.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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The sniping at the models for soon to be Emily has already begun and chief antagonist Joe Bastardi has once again announced today that Emily will stay south of the islands and be a Texas event...he is using some guidance that has proven so far to be on the left side of things.
One thing I will say about the models for ...NHC did great on the locations throughout and poor on the intensity..
As some will recall I as on the right side all the way and I am dismayed really that more attention was not placed on that by local planners and officials.
This storm reached a point about 165 miles sw to my location and then reintensified from mid range cat 2 to 4. The posibillity of a more northward turn was still realisic. IF that had occured that storm would have traversed the coast abreast of my loction about 75-90 miles off shore and not 185.
The chances then of more sever coastal flooding and higher and persistent winds would have existed and the evacuations would have been higher level, and by then the weather was already dangerous at times. the models performed well on this storm, but then we have last summer's records to use. in our comparisons.
It is a very fine line as to just how much information to get out and when to do it. The peninsula is really VERY vulnerable to quick last minute alteration in the course of these very powerful storms...There may not be a good answer.
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doug
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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First of all I hope the area taking on the eye wall in did not receive too much damage....
I stayed up all night Sat and Sun morning monitoring the motion of , and about 4:00 am Sunday morning I was convinced the models that were projecting a possible MS landfall were off, and that he would not impact our area to any great concern, which is what happened... did a marvelous job with missing out by only 70 miles from their 3 day forecast...
Ivan headed straight towards the MS coast then slid off to the NNE... was sorta tracking towards us, and even had the shifting the track farther west late on Sat night, which wasn't a good sign, but it eventually shifted back to the east 12 hours later.... thankfully... however, both created a high level of pucker pressure and had me contemplating possible evacuation... I do not want to take the eye wall head on of a Cat 4 or 5 storm... esp one to my west....
Now all eyes will turn to Emily... question I have to ask myself.. do I open up the storm shutters and take down the plywood??? I think I'll wait a few days to see what's in store with the next system... maybe I'll considered leaving them up till Nov 30 at the present rate .... all in all, it could have been much worse for everyone involved.... next time we might not be as lucky...
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
The sniping at the models for soon to be Emily has already begun and chief antagonist Joe Bastardi has once again announced today that Emily will stay south of the islands and be a Texas event...he is using some guidance that has proven so far to be on the left side of things.
One thing I will say about the models for ...NHC did great on the locations throughout and poor on the intensity..
As some will recall I as on the right side all the way and I am dismayed really that more attention was not placed on that by local planners and officials.
.
this is what i wanted to articulate yesterday... I agree 1000%
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Well Joe B is excellent at pattern recognition but his long term forecasting skills is not at the same par of excellence.. He harped all weekend that would be a NO or MS coast event, not even close.... maybe he'll do better with Emily... time will tell...
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