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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Tropical Storm Emily Forms East of Caribbean
      #42300 - Mon Jul 11 2005 10:55 PM

With improved organization during the evening hours, Tropical Storm Emily has formed out of T.D. #5 in the central Atlantic. Current forecast tracks take it into the Caribbean and along the northern edge of it possibly into the Bahamas after crossing Hispaniola. The center is still in the organization stages, so the forecast track & intensity is somewhat cloudy (no pun intended), but model guidance is fairly well clustered now despite that.



Emily is expected to become a hurricane when it nears the islands, with the potential to become another major hurricane if it misses Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to the north. If not, interaction with the landmasses will likely cause the storm to weaken, utlimately impacting its intensity and track as it draws nearer to the southeast United States.

Another wave southeast of Emily by 800 miles or so is showing signs of organization too, so we may have something else to watch soon. If it develops into a named system, it would set a record for the most named storms in the Atlantic before August. Conditions are gradually becoming more favorable for development across the entire basin, something that does not bode well in the short-term or over the long haul of this hurricane season.

More to come later... in the meantime, look at the blogs below for more Emily information.

Event Related Links
StormCarib - Individual reports from the Caribbean Islands
Color Sat of Dennis
Floater Satellite (Visible) of Dennis with Storm Track Overlays
(Animated)
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Dennis

Emily
Animated Model Plot of Emily
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Emily
Emily Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Emily
QuikScat Image of Emily

Area east of Emily (99L)
Animated Model Plot of Area East of Emily 99L
Model Plot of Area East of Emily 99L Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Emily


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #42303 - Mon Jul 11 2005 10:59 PM

Don't pay attention to the last models. Since the center reformed to the north, those models border on irrelevancy.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Clark
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #42304 - Mon Jul 11 2005 11:02 PM

CaneTracker -- not necessarily. The center did not reform terribly far to the north, and the depictions of the storms in the models are sufficiently broad enough to likely encompass that region as well. Largely, while the model guidance may not pick up on every last wobble and reformation during the formative stages, they still manage to do a good overall job with the track forecast.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: Clark]
      #42305 - Mon Jul 11 2005 11:03 PM

Quote:

CaneTracker -- not necessarily. The center did not reform terribly far to the north, and the depictions of the storms in the models are sufficiently broad enough to likely encompass that region as well. Largely, while the model guidance may not pick up on every last wobble and reformation during the formative stages, they still manage to do a good overall job with the track forecast.



True, but I was in the belief that the NHC said in the discussion that the models are too far to the left now, no?

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: Clark]
      #42306 - Mon Jul 11 2005 11:04 PM

Note, I've got storm data back to 1902 right now under coordinates and available to plot on the google map system. Some of the data is bad, so I'm going to have to clean it up.

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Rasvar
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: Clark]
      #42307 - Mon Jul 11 2005 11:04 PM

Oh isn't that lovely. Guess I better get the ladder out this week and try to fix my anemometer. Afternoon storm fubared it today. Nothing like 2.5" of rain in a half an hour and who knows what else since I was not here. I sure hope NHC is not as accurate with this path as they were Dennis.

--------------------
Jim


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Clark
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #42308 - Mon Jul 11 2005 11:07 PM

CaneTracker -- they are likely a little to the left, yes, but the 5 day forecast isn't going to be greatly affected given the current environment. Plus, the NHC can take that into account if they do believe it will largely impact the forecast, as they likely did for the 12-36hr forecasts.

Mike -- I just noticed the Google map plots this evening when looking at the storm pages; it is a really cool feature, I think. For anyone who hasn't seen them, take a look at an example with Emily by clicking on the storm information to the left, then click on the Google Map link in the middle of the page that appears.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: Rasvar]
      #42309 - Mon Jul 11 2005 11:09 PM

I don't have a lot to say about Emily yet. I'm just honestly tired of the season already.
I appreciate everyones posts on how many storms have formed before such and such a date etc etc but you know, the reality is that these things are very costly and disrupt lives in a major way.

Like everyone else, I'll deal with Emily and every other storm that comes our way. But, I'm not as thrilled to talk about them as I was last year.

Go away Emily


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: Clark]
      #42310 - Mon Jul 11 2005 11:11 PM

Okee doke Clark, thank you for clarifying that to me.


Just another note:

"A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...OR ALSO ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
TROPICAL STORM EMILY. DESPITE ITS LOW LATITUDE POSITION...THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH."

...From the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook...

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #42311 - Mon Jul 11 2005 11:13 PM

Earliest dates for the 5th named storm for the last 10 years.
1995 was July 31st.
1997 was July 16th.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Edited by danielw (Mon Jul 11 2005 11:17 PM)


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: danielw]
      #42313 - Mon Jul 11 2005 11:17 PM

Plan of the Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 111430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 11 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z JULY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-044

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
FLIGHT ONE
A. 13/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0105A CYCLONE
C. 13/0900Z
D. 12.2N 55.2W
E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


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ralphfl
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #42314 - Mon Jul 11 2005 11:29 PM

any guess on what part of the US is going to get this? i go to camp in Georgia leave on monday and im sure if late Sunday there is a storm that may hit the Sarasota area of our state many will not go.

So #1 do you think this side of florida will be spared and do you think by sunday we will have a good idea where it is going.

As i look at the maps it is all going to be if the High is strong enough to keep it gong west or my best case it finds a hole and goes up the east coast what ya think?


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robynsmom
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #42315 - Mon Jul 11 2005 11:30 PM

Dick Fletcher (met) for Tampa just called Emily the "hurricane of the week". I feel bad for all the mets...they sure deserve a raise after last hurricane season and now with an active season this year. I sure hope we don't have anymore hurricanes of the week. Although it feels that way lately.

--------------------
Robynsmom


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tpratch
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #42316 - Mon Jul 11 2005 11:33 PM

Quote:

Note, I've got storm data back to 1902 right now under coordinates and available to plot on the google map system. Some of the data is bad, so I'm going to have to clean it up.




That reminds me, I owe you some graphics.

I'm in the middle of finally updating my studio site, but I'll try and get those to you tomorrow.


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52255225
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #42317 - Mon Jul 11 2005 11:34 PM

I know this is a little off topic but has anyone heard from liphil? Hope everythings ok with him. Hes usually posting but havent seen anything from him lately?

He's taking a vacation. I hope it's in the Pacific!~danielw

Edited by danielw (Mon Jul 11 2005 11:57 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #42318 - Mon Jul 11 2005 11:34 PM

Kind of expected that POD.
At least one of the USAFR Recon planes went southeast toward the Islands this afternoon.
I saw a few HDOB along the way. Looked like they might have been doing some "per-storm" data on the way down to the Isles.
2236. 1836N 06640W 07010 0418 224 016 163 213 016 07463 0000000000

The 18.36 66.40, observation, looks to be near Puerto Rico.


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ralphfl
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: danielw]
      #42319 - Mon Jul 11 2005 11:40 PM

So anyone have any ideas on a guess if this is going to turn before Florida or go under and go to LA.I need to plan for monday next week to leave Sarasota for South GA with 30 kids.Guess it is all a guess at this time but i can't find any 7 day computer models.So if you know a site with any i would love to look at some long range models

Edited by ralphfl (Mon Jul 11 2005 11:41 PM)


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Cycloneye11
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: danielw]
      #42320 - Mon Jul 11 2005 11:41 PM

I am very worried about this.Hopefuly some trough deviates it from the islands but I dont see anything but ridging.Pray for me folks to see if here In Puerto Rico nothing occurs and if something happens it will not be big damage or lose of life.

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52255225
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: ralphfl]
      #42321 - Mon Jul 11 2005 11:41 PM

pretty hard to call at this point. just keep watching the cone and the posts here on this board! You should have a better idea by the end of the week.. good luck!

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PolkBB
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: ralphfl]
      #42322 - Mon Jul 11 2005 11:43 PM

You have to remember that the NHC is the best at what they do and they even average 250 nautical miles of error on Day 4 of their forecasts. I would assume it's much too early to tell what if any impact there will be on the U.S. as a whole much less a particular geographic location.

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