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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #42540 - Tue Jul 12 2005 04:17 PM

it seems if the MM5 model is correct we will have Gert by next week

model prediction
look behind Emily and then look in the Gulf


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jkbtrb
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #42541 - Tue Jul 12 2005 04:18 PM

How long did it take Dennis to hit land from the Cuba?

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Rabbit]
      #42542 - Tue Jul 12 2005 04:20 PM

Quote:

it seems if the MM5 model is correct we will have Gert by next week

model prediction
look behind Emily and then look in the Gulf



It could just be thunderstorms they are predicting but thats weird.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Katie
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: jkbtrb]
      #42543 - Tue Jul 12 2005 04:30 PM

Well, Dennis was giving Cuba Hell on Friday and then making his grand entrance in P'Cola on Sunday afternoon - so, just a matter of days. It seems like they can either be sucked up quickly into land or lay around, you can't ever tell until it happens.

Colleen - if you see this before you leave - have a safe trip to Chicago!!!!!

Edited by Katie (Tue Jul 12 2005 04:31 PM)


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Rabbit
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #42544 - Tue Jul 12 2005 04:30 PM

that doesnt look like thunderstorms, here is the pressure version
MM5
looks like Hurr. Emily Cat 3, Cat 1 Hurr. Franklin behind that, and TS Gert in the Gulf


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doug
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: jkbtrb]
      #42545 - Tue Jul 12 2005 04:32 PM

49HOURS 2pm edt on Friday to 3:14 pm edt on sunday

However Dennis did not actually exit Cuba until abot 8:30 on friday

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Tue Jul 12 2005 04:34 PM)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: doug]
      #42546 - Tue Jul 12 2005 04:40 PM

Climatology
we got the 5th storm 8 weeks early this year!


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Rabbit]
      #42547 - Tue Jul 12 2005 04:41 PM

Quote:

that doesnt look like thunderstorms, here is the pressure version
MM5
looks like Hurr. Emily Cat 3, Cat 1 Hurr. Franklin behind that, and TS Gert in the Gulf



Oh boy!

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Terra
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: doug]
      #42548 - Tue Jul 12 2005 04:43 PM

I guess looks can be deceiving, as Emily definitely looked weaker to me over the last couple hours than earlier today...

From 5PM discussion:
WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE
BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE Dennis HAS ACTUALLY MADE
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY.

How could this be? If Dennis churned up water from below the surface, the SSTs should be colder (as we always talk about)... but, Dennis made things warmer. Dennis strenghtened over water, acquirong latent heat as water vapor condensed.... Evaporation (to sustain water vapor concentrations) is a cooling process... please explain how Dennis warmed the water.... only thing I can think of is he peed in it... (kidding).

Nevermind, in my haste to pose such a thoughful question... and consider the laws of thermodynamics... I must have skimmed over the answer.... WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF Dennis HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill

Edited by Terra (Tue Jul 12 2005 04:46 PM)


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Clark
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Rabbit]
      #42549 - Tue Jul 12 2005 04:43 PM

I wouldn't put too much stock in either the Gulf storm or the deep EPac storm out of the MM5 right now. There are issues that the model has with the complex terrain of the region, where lower areas of pressure due to the terrain and grid spacing move out over water and, given favorable conditions, rapidly spin up into tropical cyclones. In reality, these events don't happen like that, so I would take it with a major grain of salt.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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wxman007
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Terra]
      #42550 - Tue Jul 12 2005 04:45 PM

Read further...

HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF Dennis HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Rabbit
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Clark]
      #42551 - Tue Jul 12 2005 04:48 PM

how likely is it that the system behind Emily will develop though?

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Clark
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Terra]
      #42552 - Tue Jul 12 2005 04:48 PM

Terra -- Dennis passed between Jamaica and Cuba, while the new path for Emily seems to take it south of Jamaica. While Dennis did churn up the waters that it passed over, winds around the storm can move surface waters around, leading to slightly higher water temperatures on the periphery of where the storm passed.

Unfortunately, what they aren't taking into account is that Emily's path takes it directly over areas that Dennis *did* pass over, in areas that are not as warm as the western Caribbean, and thus over areas that would have a greater impact on the storm than if it traversed directly over upwelled waters in the western Caribbean. Couple that with interaction with Jamaica and Hispaniola -- as we saw with Dennis -- and I think that the intensity forecast needs a little work. It may be 100kt in 5 days, but probably not 3. There will likely be fluctuations early on due to the rapid forward speed of the storm as well as in the 3-5 day time frame due to interaction with land to the north and upwelled waters due to Dennis.

(And is it me, or are Franklin's UMiami roots showing recently? First a jab at the Superensemble, despite the NHC knowing its limitations early on in the season, and now a mention of a UMiami product that is more readily available from and distributed by the Navy online at http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/. Hey, I'm just sayin'...)

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Tazmanian93
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Terra]
      #42553 - Tue Jul 12 2005 04:50 PM

I had asked this question earlier based on a prior post with respect since Dennis was a fast mover, how much cooling did he really do. Also, I recall seeing SST's in the mid 80's and even parts of the Gulf 90. Was it as simple as him pushing the warmer water around?

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Steve H1
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Clark]
      #42555 - Tue Jul 12 2005 05:08 PM

All this discussion will be for nought if Emily slams into Venezuela. Her convection is dying rapidly, but she spinning like crazy! She may pass near Aruba and some of those southern most islands.

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Fletch
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Clark]
      #42556 - Tue Jul 12 2005 05:09 PM


(And is it me, or are Franklin's UMiami roots showing recently? First a jab at the Superensemble, despite the NHC knowing its limitations early on in the season, and now a mention of a UMiami product that is more readily available from and distributed by the Navy online at http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/. Hey, I'm just sayin'...)





Clark, that was classic. Now if UF did more than raise cattle we could add a third side to that.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Clark
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #42557 - Tue Jul 12 2005 05:10 PM

The satellite photos of the Gulf SSTs from http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/ show SSTs offshore in the Gulf of 22-25 C, about 4-6 C cooler than before Dennis' passage. Those will likely recover quickly; it is the waters beneath that which we cannot readily measure that will take some time to recover, leading to the potential to impact Emily negatively directly over the past storm's path. Maybe in the NW Caribbean there are warmer waters away from Dennis' path, but that remains to be seen as to whether or not they will hold.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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trinibaje
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Fletch]
      #42558 - Tue Jul 12 2005 05:13 PM

Quote:


(And is it me, or are Franklin's UMiami roots showing recently? First a jab at the Superensemble, despite the NHC knowing its limitations early on in the season, and now a mention of a UMiami product that is more readily available from and distributed by the Navy online at http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/. Hey, I'm just sayin'...)





Clark, that was classic. Now if UF did more than raise cattle we could add a third side to that.


\


C-A-N-E-S

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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Steve H1
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Rabbit]
      #42559 - Tue Jul 12 2005 05:22 PM

Well Rabbit, that wave WSW of the CV is looking pretty healthy, but we'll have to give it a couple of more days. What is unreal is the fairly high amplitude wave coming off Africa. As the NHC said about the cyclone graveyard "this season seems to be ignoring climatology." So I think FSU can get credit for picking up what will be Franklin. BTW< what is the "G" storm this year? That's not too far behind Franklin

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Lysis
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Steve H1]
      #42560 - Tue Jul 12 2005 05:25 PM

WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE
BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE Dennis HAS ACTUALLY MADE
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF Dennis HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD
BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO.


Now, exactly how and why did this happen? The advisory makes it sound like Dennis "blew" warmer water around. Can this happen?

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Tue Jul 12 2005 05:27 PM)


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