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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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tpratch
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Steve H1]
      #42562 - Tue Jul 12 2005 05:38 PM

Quote:

BTW< what is the "G" storm this year? That's not too far behind Franklin




It's Gert...

Most of us are genuinely concerned about Gert because no storm named Gert has ever failed to make landfall (I think).

She just sounds evil *shudder*


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Magic Hat
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Re: Franklin in the offing? [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #42563 - Tue Jul 12 2005 05:46 PM

Ed,
It may just be me, but these storms seem to be more like August storms than July. Check out the next month's chart. Has anyopne noticed if other weather patterns are behaving any differently this year?
Maybe this year will redefine all of our probability charts, but hopefully not be any indication of the years to come.

Lu


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Clark
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Lysis]
      #42564 - Tue Jul 12 2005 05:54 PM

Lysis, that's certainly the implication. Surface winds can serve to blow water around -- particularly strong surface winds -- but that is generally seen over the long-term and not so much the short term. If anything, the surface waters are slightly warmer in that region now as opposed to a week ago, but it is debateable as to whether or not it will last. It is not likely that the outer fringes of the storm substantially impacted the sub-surface waters -- the wind speeds and mixing of the ocean were not strong enough there, nor was the duration long enough.

It's interesting to note that the Navy's SST product does not show any substantial change in that region during the month of July; if anything, the waters south of Jamaica are slightly cooler than at the start of the month. Waters much further to the south are perhaps slightly warmer, but that is likely beyond the sphere of influence of Dennis as well as further south than the projected path for Emily. See for yourself: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/js/sst2.ias.jsmovie.html

Looking at the satellite loop of Emily, it looks like the deep convection around the center is trying to reform, but in turn with that it appears that the center has moved a bit further south once again. If this system does not gain some latitude shortly, it will be scraping the coast of South America through the eastern Caribbean, where the waters near to shore are rather cool and rather shallow. It will be interesting both to see what recon finds as well as what this storm does over the next few days...the surface circulation is probably still very small and relatively weak, but the mid-level circulation is very, very impressive.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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bn765
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Clark]
      #42565 - Tue Jul 12 2005 06:08 PM

are there any models yet on where the wave after Emily could be going? Wow what a cluster of thunderstorms about to come off of Africa, that just looks like trouble.

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Lysis
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Clark]
      #42566 - Tue Jul 12 2005 06:14 PM

Ahhh... the difference isn't that significant regardless.
Either way Clark… that prospect is absolutely incredible. I was thinking about how deep, in theory, the effects could propagate. I am reminded of a satellite image I found that features a massive area of the Gulf of Mexico with murky waters (well, more murky than the Gulf usually is anyway). It turns out that the mud on the bottom was actually churned up by hurricane Frances. And believe it. A lot of fish in the area have been reported to be abnormally large in size and in quantity. I continue to be amazed at such power.

http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/pub/goes/040906.frances.gif

Edited by Lysis (Tue Jul 12 2005 06:14 PM)


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jr928
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: bn765]
      #42567 - Tue Jul 12 2005 06:15 PM

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_model.html

models


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stormchazer
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Lysis]
      #42568 - Tue Jul 12 2005 06:15 PM

Quote:

WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE
BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE Dennis HAS ACTUALLY MADE
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF Dennis HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD
BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO.







I expect to drive to Clearwater, look out over the GOM and see a huge statue of the Grim Reaper standing there. Sheesh....major storm transverses the Gulf and makes the water warmer. Reminds me of a line from the movie Tremors...."Is there some higher power at work here?".

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Heather
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: tpratch]
      #42569 - Tue Jul 12 2005 06:15 PM

Gert sounds kind of tough to me, but they retire the names of "bad" storms right? She may have made landfall before but was not too bad? Just trying to make myself feel better, I guess. Gert's been on my mind.

--------------------
When it rains, it pours...


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MichaelA
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Terra]
      #42570 - Tue Jul 12 2005 06:16 PM

Quote:

WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF Dennis HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA


I found that to be really "special." Not good news.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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jr928
Weather Guru


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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: MichaelA]
      #42571 - Tue Jul 12 2005 06:19 PM

what's the historical pattern of hurricanes that get to the opening of the southern gulf just west of cuba's tip? are there steering current that pull it into the gulf or historically they cross yucatan and into mexico or texas?

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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


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Invest 99L [Re: jr928]
      #42572 - Tue Jul 12 2005 06:29 PM

Well here you go:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=


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ShanaTX
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: jr928]
      #42573 - Tue Jul 12 2005 06:35 PM

As far as I can tell, just cause it goes inbetween Cuba and The Yucatan doesn't mean a Texas or Mexico hit.

1994 Tropical Storm BONNIE and Hurricane Ivan both went thru that area and neither hit Texas or Mexico. Not counting the 'remnants of Ivan... that was just too weird

Off the top of my head, Texas seems to get hit most often by storms that start up in the GOM or the Carribbean.Like Carla in 1961. Not CV storms. Not that it can't happen - the 1900 Galveston hurricane was a CV, I think.

there was no bonnie or Ivan in 1994. what are you talking about? -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Jul 12 2005 10:18 PM)


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nl
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: ShanaTX]
      #42574 - Tue Jul 12 2005 06:47 PM

looks like we got three in the atlantic next week and two in east pacific

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: ShanaTX]
      #42575 - Tue Jul 12 2005 06:52 PM

Quote:

As far as I can tell, just cause it goes inbetween Cuba and The Yucatan doesn't mean a Texas or Mexico hit.

1994 Tropical Storm BONNIE and Hurricane Ivan both went thru that area and neither hit Texas or Mexico. Not counting the 'remnants of Ivan... that was just too weird

Off the top of my head, Texas seems to get hit most often by storms that start up in the GOM or the Carribbean.Like Carla in 1961. Not CV storms. Not that it can't happen - the 1900 Galveston hurricane was a CV, I think.



Claudette comes to mind...

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


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Re: Invest 99L [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #42576 - Tue Jul 12 2005 06:56 PM

Quote:

Well here you go:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=



I've never really used the navy page too much except for tracking Typhoons. What does it mean when they put up a number and L and link to a tropical wave?

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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jr928
Weather Guru


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Re: Invest 99L [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #42577 - Tue Jul 12 2005 06:56 PM

this path doesn't look like a southeast threat but more of a texas/mex threat unless something is going to knock it hard to the north?

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Lysis
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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #42578 - Tue Jul 12 2005 06:59 PM

Holy crap... this is off topic, but a huge funnel cloud is over my harbour.
I just saw this!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?wa...ather+Statement



--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Tue Jul 12 2005 07:01 PM)


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leetdan
Weather Guru


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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Steve H1]
      #42579 - Tue Jul 12 2005 07:03 PM

Quote:

As the NHC said about the cyclone graveyard "this season seems to be ignoring climatology."




The exact quote had me cracked up:

Quote:


THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE LATEST SHIPS STATISTICAL
MODEL RUN IS CLIMATOLOGY. SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.




--------------------
[witty phrase here]

Edited by leetdan (Tue Jul 12 2005 07:04 PM)


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


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Re: sat pics of emily [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #42580 - Tue Jul 12 2005 07:06 PM

Quote:


Claudette comes to mind...




Yup. It can happen, but it's not a sure thing.

btw local tv weather guys are already talkin about Emily and how we need to 'monitor' her closely. Gak. A Bear Watch?

Edited by ShanaTX (Tue Jul 12 2005 07:08 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Invest 99L [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #42581 - Tue Jul 12 2005 07:06 PM

It means they are watching it intently for the possibility of tropical development. Usually one sign that the system is starting to become better organized and is now considered a decent candidate for further organization over the coming days, but doesn't necessarily mean that it will happen.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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