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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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ShanaTX
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms East of Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #42366 - Tue Jul 12 2005 01:28 AM

Looks to me time to catch our breath and resupply the hurricane kits (Well, for those that actually *have* one.) before we start debating where Emily's gonna wind up - really, we've got a few days to get ourselves all wound up.

Re the article referenced at the end of the last post by the UK guy who said the last major 'cane to hit the US in July was in 1916? I'm thinkin he missed 1926's Hurricane #1 which according to the website I've linked to, hit on July 26 1926 as a Cat 4. At least as far as I can tell from the info provided. Kinda hard for me to read the map, but it looks red till it impacts e coast of FL...


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Mike N
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Re: The Box [Re: cjzydeco]
      #42367 - Tue Jul 12 2005 01:38 AM

I saw something like that too on TWC one night. Can't remember many details but there were areas pointed out (boxes) that if the hurricane passed through, it gave the storm a 60-75% chance to hit the SE coast of FL. Vice Versa on the out of the box tracks. A lot of them went into the Gulf but hit from TX to FL. But with this year's set up, I could see Emily riding just N of Cuba, hitting the keys, skirting the west coast and landfall in the big bend area. Obviously to far out to tell, but that the pattern that's set up for now. Have to see what troughs come down and the high - how strong the troughs are and what the high does either building in, holding, or retreating. Never seen the NHC as close to a prediction as Dennis. 7/7 (Thursday) their 5 day track was right on. The storm never moved 40-50 miles off that track...but that's unusual too. Let's stay tuned.

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scottsvb
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Re: The Box [Re: BullitNutz]
      #42368 - Tue Jul 12 2005 01:38 AM

Right now its looking like this.......The flow in the midlevels of the atmosphere are almost e-w with a bend to the wnw as Emily moves sw of a strong ridge in the Central Atlantic. Now a 200mb high will be located over her giving her excellent outlfow for the next 2 days then possibly some sw sheer near hispaniola. Right now we cant tell if it will go S or N or over it. Will know by Weds eve. By Thurs a ridge will form over the mid-atlantic states and off the east coast. This will push anything south of 30N and 70W more westerly...especially in the carribean. IF Emily is over Hispaniola or south of there....then expect her to continue more west to threaten Jamiaca and southern Cuba to the Yucitan of Mex. In the long range,,the GFS and Euro has been consistant on a trough digging through the great lakes and ohio valley during next week. It then might influence it towards the western gulf states or not pick it up at all. Now should Emily be north of Hispaniola it will most likely threaten the bahamas Friday into Saturday and Sunday florida into Monday.. after that...again the trough coming down might take this NW towards the central gulf states again..
Hold on though....for 1 this is way ahead of us. We dont know in the long run how much of the trough will dig down next week and where it will be located. Also for the near term we dont know after Puerto Rico on Thurs will it go south or north of that island. In general most storms that head south of there stay in the carribean till after Jamaica. This will happen due to the mid-atlantic ridge.
Anyways will update again..... scottsvb


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms East of Caribbean [Re: ShanaTX]
      #42369 - Tue Jul 12 2005 01:57 AM

Quote:

Looks to me time to catch our breath and resupply the hurricane kits (Well, for those that actually *have* one.) before we start debating where Emily's gonna wind up - really, we've got a few days to get ourselves all wound up.

Re the article referenced at the end of the last post by the UK guy who said the last major 'cane to hit the US in July was in 1916? I'm thinkin he missed 1926's Hurricane #1 which according to the website I've linked to, hit on July 26 1926 as a Cat 4. At least as far as I can tell from the info provided. Kinda hard for me to read the map, but it looks red till it impacts e coast of FL...




And I think he missed Camille 1969 with wind gust well over 200mph.


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Clark
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #42370 - Tue Jul 12 2005 02:01 AM

Camille wasn't a July storm -- it was an August storm.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Clark]
      #42371 - Tue Jul 12 2005 02:02 AM

wups my bad didnt see the month Sorry.

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Domino
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #42372 - Tue Jul 12 2005 02:04 AM

I am dying to know...how in the world do we know there was a fish spinner in the middle of the Atlantic in 1926? We couldn't even make it across without hitting icebergs back then...but we know the path of every storm that year from start to finish - including intensity?

(yes, this is a serious question - how the heck do we know all this info from the early 20th century?)

(edited to fix typo)

Edited by Domino (Tue Jul 12 2005 02:05 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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1926 Storm [Re: Domino]
      #42373 - Tue Jul 12 2005 02:17 AM

Mariner's Log. Ship or ships logged the storm as occuring. Since it never hit land we know it was a fishspinner.

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Domino
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Re: 1926 Storm [Re: danielw]
      #42374 - Tue Jul 12 2005 02:22 AM

Would I be correct by saying it's possible that older records like that would be highly inaccurate? How many 1920's ships could have measured a cat 4-5 hurricane and sailed home to tell about it? How many captains in the 1920's would exaggerate wind speed to prove they "braved the bigger storm"?

Hmm...my tone seems to be coming off in a bad way and really I don't want anyone getting any negative vibes from this. It's a serious subject, especially when we start to base forecast at least partially on what I feel could be seriously flawed data.


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BullitNutz
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Re: 1926 Storm [Re: Domino]
      #42375 - Tue Jul 12 2005 02:27 AM

I could imagine them talking about it to people and exaggerating, but as for logs, that's used as data for a number of purposes, safety and historyical significance being the foremost two. I don't think they'd lie about wind speed. Discrepancies due to instrumentation may be a factor as it was a long time ago.

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HanKFranK
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emily and so on [Re: BullitNutz]
      #42376 - Tue Jul 12 2005 02:36 AM

emily: i've been entertaining that emily will more than likely go over the larger islands... something like georges did (except for south of puerto rico). if it gets north of them the florida is in serious trouble.. but across the islands it will beat the living crap out of itself and end up in the gulf next week. it's going to get stronger than forecast after 36 hrs.. should be a significant hurricane when it gets to the d.r.
behind emily: low latitude and easterly shear are keeping this thing in check. there is enough longitude between it and emily (and it and the system behind it) that it could develop discretely, but unless it gets above, say, 9N, expect nothing more out of it. cross equatorial flow and the large dip in the easterlies are creating a huge gyre in the area that should naturally support it.. but it has to get to the north to do anything.
behind the system behind emily: this is the one bastardi and others are progging as franklin.. i'm on that boat. it's got more latitude and should have cool water problems to contend with, but a large-envelope wave like this should withstand such things and consolidate as it moves west.. later in the week this thing should be developing. models are doing it too fast, taking it too far north.. but due to its initial position it should do something to that effect. by the weekend it should be a named system moving wnw, north of the islands.
that's as far as i'll wager right now.
HF 0736z12july


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ShanaTX
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Re: 1926 Storm [Re: Domino]
      #42377 - Tue Jul 12 2005 02:42 AM

In lookin at the info avail about the 1900 Galveston Hurricane it sure looks like the ships' captains that encountered the storm all mentioned the barometric pressure. Quite a few of them survived the storm and so researchers can use those pressure drops to approximate wind speed/ category. Out in the middle of the ocean, they'd plot position and pressure. I'd think that would be more reliable than almost anything else back then.

Heck- the weather people in DC were convinced the Galveston hurricane was on it's way across Florida when in fact Florida was just feeling the outer bands as the hurricane brushed Key West on it's way to Galveston. Ships in the GOM reported big pressure drops. Did they telegraph that info to shore? Dunno if they even had wireless telegraph in 1900...

I figure some of that mapping data had to have been exterpolated from a group of reports

'shana

Edited by ShanaTX (Tue Jul 12 2005 02:43 AM)


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Domino
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Re: 1926 Storm [Re: ShanaTX]
      #42378 - Tue Jul 12 2005 02:46 AM

Interesting thought about the pressures. Ship captains may have wanted to exaggerate wind speed - but I doubt they'd seen the need to exaggerate the pressure. I suppose that could be the way of verifying their wind reports.

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danielwAdministrator
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Barometer [Re: Domino]
      #42379 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:10 AM

That's where the old term, "a falling glass" was coined.
It referred to the barometer falling. Actually the barometer didn't fall the mercury, other liquid, or in the case of an aneroid barometer the needle fell.
I saw a 'fall' at one of the buoys in the GOM prior to Dennis.
The 3 hour pressure trend was -10.5 millibars.
That's roughly 0.31" of mercury. A third of an inch fall in 3 hours.
That ought to make your ears pop.


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Domino
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Re: Barometer [Re: danielw]
      #42380 - Tue Jul 12 2005 04:28 AM

Pressue at my house has dropped about 9 millibars in about 15 hours and I noticed in my wrist (broke it badly...it now is my portable weather station). currently we're sitting at 1012.1mb. Dennis is still a bit SW of my location. We've been getting bands of rain all day long. So far we've gotten .65 inches in the last 24 hours. Going to be interesting to see what it's like when he drifts a bit closer.

I have a weather station/cam set up at my home in Indianapolis (cam is currently stuck in February till I get some new software). You can see it HERE.

It's just a relatively cheap weather channel wireless station (that I actually hard wired..) Didn't have much money to spend on it.


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danielwAdministrator
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Tropical Storm Emily Update [Re: Domino]
      #42382 - Tue Jul 12 2005 06:26 AM

Emily continues to maintain. The 5 AM EDT Advisory can be found by clicking the Emily Map on the left sidebar.
Please check the time on the upper right corner of the Map for the correct Advisory. At this time 06:25AM EDT it is showing an old map.

NHC added a note of interest to the 5 AM Advisory.

...IT IS NOTABLE THAT...WITH EMILY'S FORMATION...THIS IS THE EARLIEST DATE ON RECORD FOR THE FORMATION OF FIVE NAMED CYCLONES.

Emily's 5 day forecast, from the 5 AM Advisory, is for 85 kts (98 mph) in the vicinity of 20.0N/ 77.0W ( this is near the location that Dennis first made landfall in Southern Cuba) at 17/0600Z ( 2 AM EDT, Sunday Morning.)

Note: This is the 120hr forecast position and errors can exceed several hundred miles.~danielw


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: danielw]
      #42383 - Tue Jul 12 2005 06:48 AM

Yes, GA Power really got caught with their pants down on this last one. I am in Midtown Atlanta, and my rain guage goes up to 8 inches. It was overflowing yesterday when I checked. There were trees down all over metro Atlanta. My power has also been out since 11pm Sunday night. Of course...it would have to come back on at 4am (why I'm up this early), but hey...I'm just glad its on

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


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Re: Tropical Storm Emily forms in East Atlantic [Re: WeatherNut]
      #42385 - Tue Jul 12 2005 07:21 AM

Well Emily looks better organised on the visible imagery this morning than the precursor depression did yesterday. Still not much in the way of significant banding, but ratcher a central area of deep convection with weak banding to the east. Think we could see a CDO develop from this deep convection later today, and expect Emily to strengthen quite a bit today. She could be a significant problem for some areas of the Lesser Antilles.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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BullitNutz
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Possibility: [Re: Rich B]
      #42386 - Tue Jul 12 2005 07:25 AM

Is there any possibility of Emily staying south of the thin black line, then suddenly turning North like Charley? I know, it's damn early. But is there trend data that could hint at this situation?

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drcrazibob
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Re: Possibility: [Re: BullitNutz]
      #42387 - Tue Jul 12 2005 08:15 AM

Quote:

Is there any possibility of Emily staying south of the thin black line, then suddenly turning North like Charley? I know, it's damn early. But is there trend data that could hint at this situation?




I would say it's just way too early to speculate. Anything is possible, but it's too soon to start worrying.


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