scottsvb
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Quote:
Right now its looking like this.......The flow in the midlevels of the atmosphere are almost e-w with a bend to the wnw as Emily moves sw of a strong ridge in the Central Atlantic. Now a 200mb high will be located over her giving her excellent outlfow for the next 2 days then possibly some sw sheer near hispaniola. Right now we cant tell if it will go S or N or over it. Will know by Weds eve. By Thurs a ridge will form over the mid-atlantic states and off the east coast. This will push anything south of 30N and 70W more westerly...especially in the carribean. IF Emily is over Hispaniola or south of there....then expect her to continue more west to threaten Jamiaca and southern Cuba to the Yucitan of Mex. In the long range,,the and Euro has been consistant on a trough digging through the great lakes and ohio valley during next week. It then might influence it towards the western gulf states or not pick it up at all. Now should Emily be north of Hispaniola it will most likely threaten the bahamas Friday into Saturday and Sunday florida into Monday.. after that...again the trough coming down might take this NW towards the central gulf states again..
Hold on though....for 1 this is way ahead of us. We dont know in the long run how much of the trough will dig down next week and where it will be located. Also for the near term we dont know after Puerto Rico on Thurs will it go south or north of that island. In general most storms that head south of there stay in the carribean till after Jamaica. This will happen due to the mid-atlantic ridge.
Anyways will update again..... scottsvb
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jkbtrb
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Loc: Pensacola
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The only reason they cancelled this one was because the power was off...They didn't make the decision until the day before. I just hope it hits after Tuesday. I don't think Penscola can take 1 hurrican a week. That is too insane!
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Wingman51
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2:00 is out
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Wingman51
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t 2 pm ast, 1800z, the center of tropical storm emily was located near latitude 11.1 north, longitude 51.9 west or about 530 miles, 850 km, east-southeast of barbados.
Emily is moving toward the west near 20 mph, 32 km/hr. A turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of emily will be reaching the windward islands late Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, 85 km/hr, with higher gusts. Emily has the potential to become a hurricane before reaching the windward islands.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles 85 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb, 29.53 inches.
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Jamiewx
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NWS MLB AFD
SAT-MON...12Z KEEPS DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE FL PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY...FOR NOW WILL NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM CLIMO BUT THE PROGRESS OF TC EMILY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES DLM RIDGE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO KEEP SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH...BUT GIVEN INHERENT ERRORS GOING OUT IN TIME...WILL BEAR WATCHING VERY CLOSELY.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Loc: Israel
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So what does that exactly mean Jamie?
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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FireAng85
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Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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WFTV, in Orlando has a pretty cool interactive hurricane tracker and you can watch the tracks of storms from last year and now. It's eery to see where Emily is now, then watch ...... She's exactly where he was. Check it out:
http://html.wftv.com/sh/idi/weather/hurricanes/hurricanetracker.html 
Angie
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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Lysis
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So what does that exactly mean Jamie?
If the model guidance is correct, then Emily should not hit that little slab of coral rock we call the Florida mainland. But they are not always correct, are they? 
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Tue Jul 12 2005 02:10 PM)
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Tazmanian93
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Loc: Tampa
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"Satellite imagery shows that the deep convection at the center of Emily continues to become better organized, nice banding features have developed, and upper-level outflow is steadily improving. Emily is advancing over warmer and warmer waters, and the upper-level winds ahead of it look very favorable for intensification. brings Emily up to a Category 3 in three days' time, and I cautiously agree.
Cautiously, because I note that Emily is now moving a little south of due west--it's latitude went from 11.4 to 11.0 North the past six hours. This may have been due to an internal re-organization where the center got sucked underneath where the deepest convection was. The computer forecast models predict that a west to west-northwest motion should begin shortly. However, if Emily's motion continues westward or slightly south of westward, the storm will enter the southeast Caribbean Sea--which historically has been very unfavorable for tropical storms. I've seen countless impressive-looking tropical storms cross through the Windward Islands between 11 and 13 North Latitude, only to weaken or die once they get into the southeastern Caribbean. The reasons for this weakening are not well understood, but one theory is that the presence of the South American land mass to the south cuts off an important source of low-level moisture to developing tropical storms, or entrains dry air into them.
If one looks at the past 20 years of data and finds all hurricanes and tropical storms that crossed into the southeast Caribbean between 11 and 13 North Latitude, here's what one finds:
Two tropical storms that weaken, but later regain their strength:
Lili(2002)
Chantal(2001)
Six tropical storms that die:
Jerry(2001)
Earl(2004)
Joyce(2000)
Arthur(1990)
Isaac(1988)
Danielle(1986)
Two tropical storms that intensify into hurricanes:
Joan(1988)
Emily(1987)
One hurricane that intensifies:
Ivan(2004)
So, in the past 20 years, over 70% of the tropical storms and hurricanes that have crossed into the southeastern Caribbean have died or weakened. But this is the hurricane season of 2005. The normal rules do not apply. I predict Emily will follow it's namesake storm, Emily of 1987, and continue to intensify once it crosses the Windward Islands into the southeastern Caribbean."
Dr. Jeff Masters
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Ed in Va
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The 7-day HPC is interesting:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html
It shows a storm (Emily?) just NW of the Yucatan and another one (#6) as a spinner in the mid-Atlantic. What is the conncetion between HPC and ?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Tazmanian93
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Thought this was interesting also http://kkbq.com/common/hurricane/images/july.gif
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Why does emily look so feathery?
This is the first time I have seen a sat photo of a growing TS.
Isn't it interesting that the fractal nature of clouds extends all the way to looking at them from space. Watching the loop, looks like like clouds you'd see lying on your back looking up at the horizon.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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jkbtrb
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Why are all these storms coming to the gulf this year?
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Cause of the ridge over florida and the mid-atlantic states pushing everything west.
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EaglezFan42
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Loc: St Petersburg, FL (Jungle Terr...
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is there much chance of the ridge weakening and moving eastward into the atlantic soon? like in a couple of days?
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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No,,infact the ridge will build moreso and be stronger over the weekend.
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Tazmanian93
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Quiet hurricane seasons coincide with El Nino conditions in the Pacific. When Pacific water temperatures rise, it changes global wind patterns. High in the atmosphere, wind shear knocks down storms that arise in the Atlantic, preventing many from reaching wind speeds of at least 74 mph. But in stormy years like 2005, Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warming above 81 degrees. Without much wind shear, humid westerly winds from Africa's bulge grow stronger. The warmer ocean heats the air in a rising column, creating a center of moist low pressure. Trade winds rush in toward this depression. Combined with the planet's rotation, they spin clouds counterclockwise around this steamy core, or "eye" of the storm. Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico can perpetuate these storms over days and hundreds of miles. Normally, the Gulf consists of a thin layer of warm water that rides atop a foundation of cold seawater. When storms cross into the basin, the winds churn these layers and the colder water pulls the plug on the storm's motor. But sometimes, the large Loop Current spawns deep pockets of warm water called eddies that move east-to-west and cover up to 20 percent across the Gulf. If a hurricane happens to pass over one of these eddies, it acts like a shot of espresso and re-caffeinates the storm. Surface temperatures in the Gulf are at least 81 degrees, adding to the conditions. The fuel for the storm is the energy of the evaporation off the Gulf surface. Warmer water means more fuel to feed the system. Experts believe the current hurricane surge is part of an obvious storm cycle. Roughly from 1970-94, Atlantic hurricane activity in the United States was relatively mild. But 1995-2004 is the most active 10 consecutive hurricane seasons on record. The cycle of heightened activity could last another 20 years or more. The trend is believed to be a consequence of natural salinity and temperature changes in the Atlantic's deep current circulation that shift back and forth every 40-60 years. The last year there were this many named storms early in the storm season was 1959, with the fourth named on July 7, 1959. In 1900, there were four storms by mid-July, but only one made landfall.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Lysis
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...yeah, Tazmanian... that just about does it.
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cheers
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poetdi
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Thank you, taz - as a novice I find these explanations invaluable. Knowledge is power! 
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Thunder
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I knew that....
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