Wingman51
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Yesterday afternoon, I think the showed 3 systems at 120 hrs - Emily in the SW GOM, "Franklin" to the East of the Windwards, and "Gert" in the Tropical Atlantic. Is this a viable scenario? Is it unprecidented? Just curious.
|
EMS
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 56
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
|
|
Recon suggests Emily is significantly weaker than estimated.
666
URNT12 KNHC 131212
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/11:47:50Z
B. 11 deg 12 min N
057 deg 25 min W
C. 850 mb 1458 m
D. 45 kt
E. 325 deg 022 nm
F. 056 deg 041 kt
G. 324 deg 020 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 17 C/ 1524 m
J. 19 C/ 1521 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.31 / 6 nm
P. AF304 0105A EMILY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 41 KT NW QUAD 11:41:40 Z
POOR RADAR PRESENTATION
|
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 428
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
|
|
If Emily is still a viable storm and than hits Yucatan, it can work its way around the periphery of the ridge and hit the north Gulf coast- i don't know about the western part of Florida other than the panhandle (again)
-------------------- ________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Quote:
...otherwise, landfall is eminent.
Mount Rushmore is eminent. The NY skyline is eminent. People like Clark, MikeC, HankFrank etc are eminent meterological resources on this board.
If Emily is about to hit land, then landfall is imminent.
-------------------- Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 337
Loc:
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
...otherwise, landfall is eminent.
Mount Rushmore is eminent. The NY skyline is eminent. People like Clark, MikeC, HankFrank etc are eminent meterological resources on this board.
If Emily is about to hit land, then landfall is imminent.
Whut due you mean buy that? LOL
|
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 318
|
|
If Emily crosses the Yucatan, could she turn north and end up hitting the upper Texas coast?
|
Katie
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
|
|
I know this is totally off subject but, those of you here in Florida...don't forget to look to the skies this afternoon. The launch is suppose to be at 3:51 p.m.
|
Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
|
|
Quote:
If Emily is about to hit land, then landfall is imminent.
That's why I majored in chemistry... Seriously though, thanks for the comment. I absoutely cannot stand homonym errors and was unaware imminent was a homonym (or misspelled).
-------------------- Terra Dassau Cahill
|
nandav
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 37
Loc: Pt. Charlotte, FL
|
|
Just in time for our daily thunderstorm....
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
I will be very upset if Playa Del Carmen gets hit.I still have many good friends there.Some of them have sent me emails asking if I want a visit from them ,say........This Monday.All the Corona ads you see are filmed there.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
devgirl00
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 3
|
|
hey yall, i'm new. forgive me for my lack of understanding -- i'm here to learn more than anything.
is it true, at least it seems to me, that the Big Ones are the Cape Verde storms. Why would that be?
If I'm in the wrong forum, let me know and I'll move.
|
Lysis
User
Reged:
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
|
|
Simply put, Cape Verde storms travel across the entire north atlantic, and are given alot of time and space to develop.
-------------------- cheers
|
ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
|
|
11 am potential track maps for TS Emily out at www.wunderground.com
Are these the same forecasts we see on the left hand column of this site? They look a bit different ...
|
Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
|
|
Just to add to Lysis's point longer period of travel while the below is taking place:
All hurricanes form from preexisting cloud clusters. Somehow though these clusters need to start spining. More importantly however, where do the clouds come from? Well, the clouds for the most part form along a line of convergence known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or . Here the air converges and is lifted up to form clouds. You may have heard of the referred to as the monsoon trough. The monsoon trough is only one type of though, there are two types, a trade wind and a monsoon . Besides these troughs thunderstorm clusters can form in a multitude of other ways, such as the easterly waves that come off Africa, and along the southern ends of stalled midlatitude fronts. The easterly waves that come from Africa form along the there and then migrate off the coast working their way across the Atlantic and then into the Pacific. Along the way they may form into a hurricane in either ocean basin. The migrates north and south throughout the year roughly between 20 degrees north and 20 south, although its average position is 5 degrees north. The trough is found in the summer hemisphere and serves as a region of convergence. Those basins that were mentioned to have two peaks of formation have those because the trough makes two passes through those regions, once heading north, the other heading south. To form a hurricane these cloud clusters must persist for a long period of time, generally serveral days. Those systems that persist for long periods of time tend to generate a MCV (mesoscale convective vortex). This is a warm core vortex that forms in the altostratus deck of the system somewhere around 300 to 700 millibars. Below this vortex the system often has a cold core. Remember, cold here is relative, by cold we may mean the core is 30 degrees C while the surroundings are 31 degrees C or something to that effect. Now, somehow in hurricane development this vortex migrates to the surface and turns the surface into a warm core system. How this transition is made is one of the major unknown areas of hurricane formation. However, once the core is at the surface it is now in a position to tap into the oceanic latent heat energy. Not all MCV's turn into hurricanes and much research still goes into determining what differentiates forming from non-forming MCV's. The is also a source of spin up. Winds approach it from different directions at the surface and these differences help to start cloud cluster rotation. This spin mechanism is also found at the ends of stalled fronts and in easterly waves.
-------------------- Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
|
Thunder
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 29
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
|
|
What he said...
|
BullitNutz
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 46
|
|
I happen to have, well, not quite a front row seat, but close enough: 5th floor (roof) of the South parking garage at the UCF Orlando campus. Last time I saw a launch, it was at night, and we were able to hear the roar of the boosters, see the Eastern sky light up, and then see the shuttle rise on a huge tongue of flame.
Since it's a day launch, the shuttle's sound will probably be lost in the noise clutter of a university in full swing. The visuals should be just as breathtaking though.
|
DrewC
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 10
Loc: Auburndale, FL
|
|
Wingman, a few years back, there were 5 storms lined up in the Atlantic at one time. I believe it was 1997, but the years all blur together after a while. The satellite image of all five in a perfect row was my computer's desktop for years.
Drew
|
NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
|
|
i am not sure, but i believe it was sept of 96
-------------------- Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
I have to say I'm relieved with Emily's forecasted path...I was sweating about my trip to Chicago. Leaving today and coming back Monday. Looks like I'll get to enjoy my vacation as planned! I'll probably be back in time for Franklin's debut, LOL.
I hope things work out and the shuttle can take off as planned. We usually watch it from Lake Hollingsworth (I like in Lakeland, FL) but I think the storms will be coming inland at the time of liftoff, so I'll just watch it on TV! Can't believe the cockpit window fell off and hit some of those tiles!
I'm sure it will be a safe takeoff and I'll be keeping the crew in my thoughts and prayers.
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Yeah I work at the Stennis Space Center where we test and certify all the Shuttle liquid propellant engines (SSME).. we'll be watching the NASA link today for the launch... needless to say, we're ready to get back in the space travel business... there is anxiety however as with every launch... space travel is a VERY risky business to say the least and anyone to say otherwise is clueless.... I'm in the safety business I think that qualifies me to comment accordingly... hopefully the weather will not be an issue as our window of opportunity for launch today is not very long... the feeling at the site today is this perhaps should be the safest launch in history..
It takes an incredible amount of courage to do what the astronauts do...
good luck and god speed Discovery
|