trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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the 11 am forcast track has Grenada in the bulleye... that poor country lost 90% of its homes to ....
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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can someone please send me the link too joe bastardi's forecast for today. thank you! 
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Quote:
If Emily is about to hit land, then landfall is imminent. 
That's why I majored in chemistry... Seriously though, thanks for the comment. I absoutely cannot stand homonym errors and was unaware imminent was a homonym (or misspelled).
It was just kind of fresh in my mind because there was a post this weekend during where someone had mentioned a weather newsperson who kept saying it on TV.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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11am Discussion:
FOR A STORM MOVING WESTWARD AT ALMOST 20 KT...THERE IS A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF WIND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTING UP TO 56 KT AT 850 MB IN THE ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 57 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AT LEAST 45 KT
AT THE SURFACE...AND THE FLIGHT CREW HAS VISUALLY ESTIMATED WINDS OF 55 KT. GIVEN THIS...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT SOUNDS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. INCIDENTALLY...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA
CONFIRM THE RAIN-FLAGGED BUT ESSENTIALLY CORRECT QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN THE 09Z PASS. EMILY CONTINUES ON A STUBBORN WESTWARD TRACK...270/17. THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FORECAST ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY BY THE TRACK MODELS HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET. CLEARLY THERE HAS BEEN MORE RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THAN EXPECTED. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BOUNDED BY THE AND UKMET ON THE NORTH...AND ON THE
SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ON THE SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF EMILY IS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE NEAR THE CORE...AND I PRESUME THAT THE DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...UPPER WINDS ARE STILL
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. WHILE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST...IF EMILY DOES NOT GAIN SOME LATITUDE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IT COULD LOSE A SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND END UP CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN FORECAST.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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I think that the weather is very "iffy" for the launch today. It's already rained at and afternoon thunder showers are a rountine around there.
THere are so many contingincies pertaining to weather. MIght get lucky and hit a clear spot however.
It would be nice to be back in space again.
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CarlSpackler
Registered User
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Posts: 4
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just for clarifiction, it was NOT a cockpit window that fell, it was a cover that goes over the windows until shortly before lift off. it souds even worse to think they could have the window fall out of the shuttle.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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I think JB's link is on the main page otherwise it is available through Yahoo.com./weather.
Emily, or what is posing as Emily, seems to be heading due west right now, and the wnw steering currents are about 12 hours ahead of it. stated in the 11am discussion it could lose much of its moisture flow from the south and it already has dry air in from the north.
This area is the classic graveyard area for systems, and Emily may not survive. That is a distinct possibility. If it does, and that may happen too as the LLC will remain off shore as it skirts the coast,then it will track wnw from there to the Yucatan in whatever shape it is in...Still spec. exists that Emily will grow up into a big girl, but I'm not convinced.
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doug
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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It looks like simply some Divergent flow causing storms, but anyone else peeked at it to see if something more might be there?
What's left of continues to look impressive, and drifting ever so slowly south.
oh did the wanna-be potential depression number 6 die out?
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Here is a great link to view current conditions just a few miles from the Space Center:
http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/rg-weather.html
If you scroll to the bottom, you will see local Radar and Sat feeds.
Currently there is a huge rain cloud overhead, I putting today's launch @ 25% go. 
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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12Z UKMET and both move Emily back up into Cuba... for all in NewOrleans the UKMET says Emily will see you in 6 days...data fields on the stopped at 72 hours
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doug
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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pou ring rain here guys!
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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rain alot of rain here in nsb and moving south towards the cape
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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 46
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Nice and clear here in East Orlando.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Right, in run mode now shows a jump N from current 11.2 to about 14N in 24 hours. I suppose a ridge breakdown in a similar location to what occurred w/ is possible? The pattern seems to be close. I am guessing that Emily might get drawn north somewhat. The path and intensity is not the same, I realize. I just think the models underestimate the mid-latitude troughs. Therefore, me not knowing anything, I think Emily will curve northward more than some of the southerly models show. Thoughts?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Found the 12Z UKMET very fascinating. However, it is the same model that stubbornly insisted would hit 'Nawlins too. Should be interesting over the next 12 hours or so to see if any other models join the UK and .
If any met would like to speculate why these two models shifted north, I would be very interested. The has consistently been north, but the 12Z shift for the UK was more drastic.
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
It was just kind of fresh in my mind because there was a post this weekend during where someone had mentioned a weather newsperson who kept saying it on TV.
Yeah - that was me who pointed it out. I'm a former English education major, so grammatical errors jab under my skin 
At any rate, just thought I'd answer that. Back to work for me, and Mike, I'm aiming to have you the goods soon.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Yeah well the scary part is that they eventually get one right... guess we'll have to start looking for others to trend more north.. nothing surprises me any more with these TCs...
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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If this trend continues, you can blame me for it, Frank. Past day or so I've been feeling confident that the eastern gulf, basically your area (Biloxi) the Florida peninsula would avoid this one. I thought to myself last night, "Oh good, at least the folks in the Panhandle won't have to worry about this storm."
oops... Tropical systems do this just to spite me. As soon as I am "sure" they switch it up. 
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Today's Shuttle launch has been scrubbed at about 1:35pm due to a faulty fuel sensor in the main fuel tank......
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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the way this hurricane season is going I think they'll be enough blame for everybody to participate in.... the thing I've learned over the years, and especially after Elena 85... take nothing for granted....
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