javlin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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You got a laugh out of me ralph.
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drcrazibob
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 30
Loc: Daytona Beach, Fl
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Quote:
Do you people even read what the says? they talk about how hard it is to forcast the winds they just dont have a good handle on that but all models but the ukmet takes it to the yucatan.
I love wishcasters and doomcasters who have nothing more then a wish to see a north moevment in this.
What is even more funny is when the last storm was going i talked about what the ukmet modle said and i was told how bad the model is but now since it shows the most intrest everyone wants to jump on it.
Its the wishcasters and doomcasters that makes boards like this sick.
I think its going where they say and why? cause that is there buisness and yes it may be wrong but 99% of the models are showing it not going to florida but only time will tell till the next one comes.
I have been watching this site for 2 years now and have a lot of RESPECT for many of the posters on here. I think your statement is very disrespectful. And if you don't like what you're reading, then don't read it.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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ralph, no one is wishcasting this storm anywhere NEAR the United States. No one wants to see this storm become any stronger than it is or affect any landmass. When making a forecast, one must consider all available guidance and weigh it accordingly based upon past performance, initialization, and the forecaster's own intuition. The UKMET model is but one of those tools, one that both the forecasters here and at the use in making their forecasts.
I don't recall anyone here saying that it is going to be a storm to hit Florida; you have people asking if it might affect Florida, but no one saying that it will. Anytime a model changes, especially if it brings the storm closer to the US, people are going to start asking questions for their own peace of mind and because they are curious as to why that might happen. That does not equate to people wish/forecasting it to hit Florida -- or anywhere else in the US at the time being, for that matter.
Please send me a private message if you have any questions or concerns, and I'll do my best to alleviate them.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Ralph, this is why the hasn't put anything on a northward movement yet:
Due to the scatter in the recon fixes during the past couple of
hours...initial motion is uncertain but is estimated at 275/16.
From the 11:00 PM Discussion
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979 -- there is a no-fly zone in and around Cuba due to the trade embargo we have levied against their nation, but other than that, most of the other nations in the Caribbean/Atlantic are friendly with the US and permit our recon planes to fly over them. All waters outside of ~45mi. from a nation's shore are termed international waters (someone can correct me on the mileage if needbe) and thus free for flight; over/near a nation, with the exception of Cuba, we should be good.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
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glad i got a laugh out of you but there are a few who post on here that the only time they post is when they see something the does not see or takes it near a big population.
Dennis was prime example how a few swore the was wrong and it was going up the west coast of florida.
Forcasting a hurricane id easy for non people cause if you are wrong who cares so ill stick with the pro's and yes try and skip the ones who only post when there is a small sign of a north movement.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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I think that people are not jumping onboard withe UKMET model. What they are doing is looking at a couple models that were once south and are seeing changes in them. The UKMET model was consistent with , the model moved very little, until the last 24 hours and even then it was wrong.
So I doubt anyone would jump onboard relying soley on the UK Model, but they are curious as to what made the model move further north.
The only thing sick about this board, is the fact that people are quick to criticize others.. If we could just keep an open mind, we could learn from each other. This board is meant for collaboration.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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It appears that Emily's strengthening is somewhat associated with an anticyclone located very close by at the 200 hPa layer.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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New thread up on the main page...head on over, everyone!
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I don't really know enough to know whether the mets that post here go too much or too little by the forecasts. I do realize a couple of things though.
1. I learn more from reading their description of what they think could happen , than I have ever learned from the 's discussion of what will happen.
2. If I was a met, I would relish a place where I could talk about what I think would happen even if it were only an outside suspicion. I value thier commments as a great way for me to learn more and feel more prepared for these storms.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
Hurricane Fredrick 1979 -- there is a no-fly zone in and around Cuba due to the trade embargo we have levied against their nation, but other than that, most of the other nations in the Caribbean/Atlantic are friendly with the US and permit our recon planes to fly over them. All waters outside of ~45mi. from a nation's shore are termed international waters (someone can correct me on the mileage if needbe) and thus free for flight; over/near a nation, with the exception of Cuba, we should be good.
Just some slight correction/clarification:
Occasionally we do get overflight rights to go over Cuba, but it is not often, and never consistant. Territorial waters actually only extend 12 nautical miles away from the 'mean low water mark", so the hunter's can get really close to the coastline before landfalls.
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Jason Kelley
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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tradesports.com sells some sort of stock like interest in where a hurricane would strike and how strong it would be. They do a lot of political trades too and have been found to be very accurate. I heard about it on the radio today - maybe I will have to check it out. With my luck in financial matters, if I invest on the fact that a storm will hit me it may be the only security I can ever buy 
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jusforsean
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 23
Loc: Broward County
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HI,
Does anyone have up tp date info on the next TD no 6.
I am trying to figure out the best way to track these waves that the NWS and the news doesnt update on yet.
Thanks
jusforsean
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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are the disturbances still being watched? If so, are they strengthening and where are they going?
Thanks, Ryan 
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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