Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Look at the last daylight sat photo (22:15 UTC) - great view of the eye, and the center "donut" really seems well-defined.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
Clark, get this:
My mom signed me up for private driving lessons a few days ago, and my instructor was ancient (I felt a little nervous driving with him). We started talking and I invariably brought up the subject of hurricanes and flying into them (I am a pilot in training). To that he responded… you don’t want to fly in one, trust me. I inquired as to why, and to my surprise, this guy was captain on one of the first B-29's to fly through the eye of a hurricane. They were instructed to circle the eyewall as scientist on board took pictures and recorded data. He talked about the downdrafts and updrafts (as you know, they couldn’t detect them back then), and how sometimes planes would come back with salt water in their engines.
I was absolutely astounded, and missed a stop sign because I was asking him so many questions.
EDIT: On your last post, I have a question about wind speed in relation to the systems forward speed. The LI express comes to mind, where the wind gusts were 180mph + despite the fact that the storm was only a category 3. Is that a product of the extremely high speed that the storm was traveling?
Hurricane Hazel in the 50’s (?) is another one.
Isn't the wind speed to right of the eye going to be roughly the sustained winds + forward speed of the hurricane?
So - at one point you could fly a plane, and not drive a car?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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this would be the second of the season--Dennis was 155 right before landfall in Cuba, as reported by the recon plane; decided not to upgrade it based on pressure being 937 mb (even though last year was 150 mph at 941)
135kt/155mph isn't category 5. it starts 1mph higher.. how petty. but yeah, that's an upper limit 4. they'll probably post-analyze the winds as you described. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Jul 14 2005 11:30 PM)
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Not sure if this has been posted yet... it's the AP report on Emily from Grenada:
"Hurricane Emily grew even more powerful Thursday after slamming into Grenada, tearing up crops, flooding streets and striking at homes still under repair from last year's storms. At least one man was killed. . . .
"The damage comes as the island nation is still recovering from last year's Hurricane , which destroyed thousands of residences and damaged 90 percent of the historic Georgian buildings in the capital. . .
"A man in his 40s was killed when a landslide crushed his home in St. Andrew's, said Allen McGuire, Grenada's consul general in New York City.
"In the capital, St. George's, winds blew out windows in a new hospital . . .
"On Carriacou, the storm damaged the roof of the only hospital, forcing the evacuation of patients, officials said. Sixteen houses were destroyed in Carriacou and more than 200 were damaged, McGuire said.
"Elsewhere in the country, two police stations and two homes for the elderly also lost their roofs, landslides and fallen trees blocked roads, streets were flooded and crops were destroyed. . .
"In Trinidad, there was widespread flooding and at least one house washed away in the eastern community of Arima. . .
"The struggle to recover from has prevented Grenada from thoroughly preparing for this year's hurricane season. Amid a shortage of construction supplies, many islanders still have no roofs and some children are still taught under tarps. 's destruction left few buildings viable as shelters."
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Allison
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HanKFranK
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just looked at the 18Z ... it sends emily through the yucatan channel and into the central texas coast on july 20th. it's just one run; that'll have to start appearing in multiple runs for any confidence to build.
99L may or may not have a closed low. the max is around 15-16N/43W... moving w to wnw. the 2pm twd mentioned it gaining some latitude... i don't see the kind of northward movement prescribed by most of the globals.. they're trying to shear it off to the north, and it just isn't deep enough to ride out. also there's a 500mb ridge building in NE of it which should keep pressuring it wnw. the wave signature that doesn't shear off is tracked to a position btw bermuda and puerto rico by this monday. i'm guessing that's where the system will be at that time. with the ridging over the nw atlantic, anything over that were to get there would like come charging westward. i'm not sure if the mechanics for this will work out.. if it does shear off it either won't develop or will get sucked out into the north atlantic.
wave at 20w mildly interesting.. but the models don't seem to notice it.
dennis remnants are still sitting and spinning near the ky/in border. broad weak low at the surface but a still a strong turning aloft. it's been driving the lower tropospheric flow out of the west for much of the southeast and causing good convergence with the deep southeasterly flow we usually get this time of year.. lots of thunderstorms all over the region, moisture being wrenched out of the atmosphere.
HF 0028z15july
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Lysis -- the strongest wind speeds are generally found on the side of the storm going with its motion, so that theory is pretty sound. Think of the storm's winds and the motion of the storm as two vectors; the actual wind is the vector sum of those two. Generally it's not such a big deal when the storm is moving slowly in the tropics, but when it is moving 50mph, it does play a role. And that's an interesting story...my how things have changed!
Rabbit -- if it was a Cat. 5, I think they've would've mentioned it in the forecast discussion or will in the preliminary report. Remember, 155mph is still category 4 -- it takes 156+ for cat. 5. Not sure we'll see something that strong in the preliminary report, however.
nl -- the wave behind Emily as the potential to become a depression, maybe even a storm, along the lines that HF mentions a few posts before me, but it's not there yet.
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nl
Storm Tracker
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do you see any storms hitting central florida this season?  go noles!
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HanKFranK
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dunno NL, do you see white sox winning the world series? come on, might as well ask if it's going to rain on march 15, 2007. your question can only be answered in probabilities.
HF 0042z15july
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I think you're confusing me with Rabbit... 
My bad -- I shoulda been paying more attention. -Clark
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Clark (Fri Jul 15 2005 12:00 AM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Like a chinhook; wind's have very weird names and haboob is very weird.
heh. he said haboob again.... -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Jul 15 2005 12:06 AM)
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
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Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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Who could realistically answer a question like that? Who knows what the weather patterns will be when future storms develop and what will be the driving force behind a storm to move it where it will eventually end up. you might find the answer in the World Weekly News  but never from anyone who really understands these things
Edited by richisurfs (Thu Jul 14 2005 11:59 PM)
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Terra
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Why does it appear that Emily has been thowing herself all over the Caribbean? It's like her convective bands are somehow going away from the LLC and just getting 'lost' in the oceans. She seems to be shrinking as she loses her bands. Hey... is it possible for these lost bands to start their own convergence around a new center... so, like... can part of one tropical system form another one?
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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What you're probably seeing is large clusters of thunderstorms associated with the lift of outflow boundaries and differential heating casused by eddies of warmer water. These storms are most likely temporary because they do not have a supporting UL feature.
EDIT: I don't believe they can form new tropical systems based on the above reasoning and the fact they are mesoscale features and hurricanes are synoptic scale features.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Fri Jul 15 2005 12:04 AM)
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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New pressure is 962... ouch... stronger winds to come at 11, I suspect...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Emily is certainly looking more compact.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Looks like Emily is heading right for Paul Herbert's #2 box.. so much for that theory with Emily it seems..
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nl
Storm Tracker
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looks like franklin is getting its self together.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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nl, Franklin isn't out there, at least not yet. The satellite appearance has become a bit more ragged this evening, with the main convection trailing behind what surface feature there is (where before it was coincident with it). Oh yeah, and there's a deepening category 3 hurricane in the southern Caribbean to deal with, too.
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
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There is no Franklin
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Frank P
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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
HURRICANE EMILY (AL052005) ON 20050715 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050715 0000 050715 1200 050716 0000 050716 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 66.7W 14.6N 69.8W 15.9N 72.9W 17.4N 76.2W
BAMM 13.3N 66.7W 14.4N 70.2W 15.6N 73.7W 16.7N 77.4W
A98E 13.3N 66.7W 13.8N 70.0W 14.7N 73.0W 16.0N 75.9W
LBAR 13.3N 66.7W 14.5N 70.1W 15.9N 73.6W 17.4N 77.1W
SHIP 105KTS 109KTS 106KTS 103KTS
DSHP 105KTS 109KTS 106KTS 103KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050717 0000 050718 0000 050719 0000 050720 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.9N 79.3W 22.1N 85.0W 25.1N 89.7W 27.5N 93.1W
BAMM 17.9N 80.7W 20.4N 86.8W 22.5N 91.3W 24.5N 94.1W
A98E 17.5N 78.8W 20.5N 84.6W 23.3N 89.7W 26.3N 93.2W
LBAR 18.9N 80.5W 21.8N 86.3W 24.3N 91.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 101KTS 99KTS 95KTS 92KTS
DSHP 101KTS 99KTS 57KTS 54KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 66.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 63.2W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 60.2W
WNDCUR = 105KT RMAXWD = 5NM WNDM12 = 85KT
CENPRS = 959MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 110NM
BAMD as far north as 27.5.....
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