nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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anyone have any links too gilbert? some info on it?
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. HURRICANE EMILY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH THE LATEST ADVISORY BRINGING EMILY WNW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA SAT. EMILY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON. ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN 20 KT TRADES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS EMILY MOVES WWD. LATEST FORECAST TRACK BRINGS EMILY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE MON AND TUE. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON AND TUE OVER THE SW GULF AND FOR MON IN THE S PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF ZONE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SAT THEN INCREASE OVER THE SE GULF SUN AS EMILY MOVES THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ATLC WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE AND EMILY TIGHTENS. THE WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM E TO W AS EMILY MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... HURRICANE WARNING...AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER DGS
-------------------- Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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unless I am blind...I see a deepening trend, and a more northly trend...almost dead wnw....the models will all be adjusted. This storm will make it throught the Yucatan...might even skirt Jamaica, mon...
sure hope I just can't read loops on satellites...
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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off topic but did anyone see the 10 day forecast for death valley. oh boy its hot there.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Clark what many people who put forcasts out dont understand when they try and go against what the experts say is this.
Many people are clueless about these storms and when they read someone who really is only guessing say WATCH OUT TAMPA....It scares them and they do something stupid and in some cases kill themself but running right into the storm.
3 days ago i asked about my camp next Monday what was the opinion and many said oh you in GA and tampa area better cancel...Now im not stupid but some people really take to heart what is said on these boards..
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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What we saw with Isabel is the breakdown of the eyewall into a number of mesovortices. They are pretty cool to watch, but not exactly the easiest things to model or understand dynamically.
Essentially, when the system gets wrapped up too tightly, the eyewall can breakdown into these vortices. Essentially, the eyewall is a sheet of what we call vorticity -- cyclonic spin. If the conditions are right, as they sometimes are with very intense storms, the eyewall can become barotropically unstable (what that exactly means is a matter which could take awhile to explain due to the math, but focus on the unstable part), leading to its spin-up into a number of vortices. This is where the mesovortices seen with Isabel arose from.
crap... another reason I can't walk around in the eye. I have never seen great footage that isnt overexposed from sunlight of the eyewall from the ground. I was hoping to get some myself. Thanks.
-------------------- cheers
Edited by Lysis (Thu Jul 14 2005 01:18 PM)
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Cancun Weather Watcher
Registered User
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here is some
http://www.hurricaneadvisories.com/gilbert88.html
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Essentially, when the system gets wrapped up too tightly, the eyewall can breakdown into these vortices. Essentially, the eyewall is a sheet of what we call vorticity -- cyclonic spin. If the conditions are right, as they sometimes are with very intense storms, the eyewall can become barotropically unstable (what that exactly means is a matter which could take awhile to explain due to the math, but focus on the unstable part), leading to its spin-up into a number of vortices.
That is interesting. May be a stupid extrapolation, but wondering if this implies a tornado is inherently unstable during its entire lifespan.
-------------------- Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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Well, that is the ultimate paradox of all this. Instability and randomness divulge efficiency and perfection.
-------------------- cheers
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Your right Ralph about people saying watch out in areas.. remember though you are asking about a storm from 3 days ago and its still 5 days away. No one knows for sure more then 3 days out. Its a safe bet not to let any storm interfere with your plans if its more then 3 days out.
Alot on here make guesses to storms that are not even depressions yet and say where they will go and say watch out. Yes its wrong, but I guess they can do what they want. Speculation is allowed by site management. Thing is, we hope new people who dont come here that often dont take them serious like you said, and change their plans or do drastic things.
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jr928
Weather Guru
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look out detroit?
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: nsb,fl
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is that a eye on her or something else lol is there a way too get auto refresh on here like cbs sportsline has?
Edited by nl (Thu Jul 14 2005 01:44 PM)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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At 2 PM AST...1800z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 12.9 north... longitude 65.0 west or about 490 miles... 795 km... southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph ...30 km/hr... and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Reports from an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 110 mph...175 km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily is a strong category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is expected...and Emily could become a category three hurricane later today. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles... 55 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb...28.70 inches.
-------------------- Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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hey Mike, if Emily turns, what kind of turn are we tlaking..i dont think its a Pensacola-Mobile-Billoxi turn so i guess you're talking Texas and possibly Louisiana?
-------------------- 2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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TAZMAN
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Clermont, Fl
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gained 50mph in 24 hours !!!!
actually 18
Edited by TAZMAN (Thu Jul 14 2005 02:03 PM)
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Lysis
User
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Loc: Hong Kong
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A small, ill-defined eye is now observable, tucked in that tightly wrapped .
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
-------------------- cheers
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Quote:
Thought I would put this link up for anyone that cares to check the track verification from all models and .
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200505.asp?imgfeature=verification&textfeature=track
For a different storm, where it says at200505, just type in 01, 02, 03, 04 etc etc where ending 05 is
What caused the models to be so messed up with Jeanne? Even after she made her loop, they still had her going North. (I changed the date in the URL so Jeanne comes up)
-------------------- What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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It looks like the current forecast has Emily going into Mexico or possibly South Texas. Is there any possibility it could hit around the Galveston/Port Arthur area?
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drcrazibob
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Daytona Beach, Fl
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Quote:
It looks like the current forecast has Emily going into Mexico or possibly South Texas. Is there any possibility it could hit around the Galveston/Port Arthur area?
If it does, ya'all better put on your cowboy hats and strap into the saddle real tight cuz it would be one heck of a bumpy ride!
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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It looks to be all about the ridge and the maybe troph"s impact 72hrs and out.The and UKMET show the troph,one of them even shows a split(more NW maybe track).The other models lessen the impact of the troph thus the continued W and WNW track.It will be a wait and see for sure.
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