Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
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tell us what Camille was like, Frank..cause we are fixin to experience a bad one...in all seriousness...
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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were you in Mobile for Fredrick... that was a bad boy for sure... I sure hope this isn't a repeat... its been a while since Mobile been blasted with a big one... still not convinced this is where Izzy is going, but then again..... why not...
You been predicting the big one for sometime... maybe you'll get it right this time... I hope you are wrong... got alot of relatives in Mobile...
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Rickinmobile
Unregistered
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Yeah...I was here for Frederic...in '79...got married in December of that year...daughter getting married next month...get the connection...had a dream a few years ago..two hit mobile same year...first one soft...second one...you get the idea...not one to whine...but i have felt a bad hurricane hitting this area....real bad...hope I am all wet...seriously...but the feeling that the big one is due for the emerald coast...well..eventually ...even I will get it right. I have no powers of prediction...NONE...just having fun...problem is...one day...all this fun will result in a CAT 5 hitting this area....we are DUE...
kinda feels like it, anyway
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PaulyAce2002
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 11
Loc: Largo, Florida, United States
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Actually Floridacane, thats not too bad of a gauge. Right now, whether or not it passes left or right of the Isle of Youth looks like a photo-finish.
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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Your too funny!/ Got your email.
Southern 
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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lost everything I own.. I was 17...
house had 5 feet of water, after the water went down we had 3 inches of stinking mud... and no way to clean it....
slept on my front porch for about a month....
no clothes except what I had on when it hit...
all the cars had been submurged in water... none worked for weeks, some never did crank again....
no electricty for 5 weeks...
no running water for 3 weeks.....
no gas for 3 weeks
no bath for two weeks, rode my bike about 10 miles to a friends house for a bath...
I still have no pictures of me prior to 1969....
ate enough spam so that to this day I can't stand the smell of it...
long LONG lines for everything....
ice was a premium...
no gas for cars, but none worked anyway...
phone service down for weeks...
highway 90 useless for several months
they were giving away water in Budweiser Cans... boy for a minute I though we were going to get free beer....
tetanus shots were a must....
snakes everywhere.... killed about 6 in my yard alone
NOW THE BAD NEWS...
several of my friends lost loved ones... bodies were found in my neighborhood 20 feet up in Oak trees....
I was so young and me and all my friends were so excited that the storm was coming... I remember laughing every time they said on the radio it was getting stronger... I thought they were just full of it.... no way for it to be that strong...
YEAH, I want another Cat 5 in Biloxi... get real
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rickinmobile
Unregistered
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awesome post Frank...now I know why your are so ate up with it...so am I...hope it don't hit us...don't bet on it THOUGH...
ground zero babeee......
at least whoever gets it....will know...know what we all oughta do
go and help them and their loved ones and anyone who is suffering...go help them ALL...
That's what we ALL ought to do...someone is fixin to get the big one...hope it doesn't grow past a 3...but guess what...
IT WILL
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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lets do a quick math problem: assuming historical records are on the mark, the u.s. has been hit by three category five hurricanes since 1935. this is a small sample, but we'll use the strike frequency anyway. the spacing between labor day and camille was 34 years, between camille and Andrew was 23. all three hit south florida or the gulf coast, with one landfall at cat 5. now, all three were small, compact hurricanes, with extremely tight cores.. damage was catastrophic within the eyewall but not too bad outside. for the sake of argument, lets say the cat 5 severe damage swath is 50 miles wide.. possibly being liberal. okay, so you here's the formula:
2150 miles of coastline from brownsville to hatteras.. where a five could possibly hit. we'll give mobile the benefit of the doubt and say it has five times the likelihood (which it obviously doesnt) of being hit than this stretch of coast in general. okay, so 2150/5=430 miles. now, a cat four will affect a random 50 mile section of this 430 miles every 30 years or so..
so 430/50=8.6% of the coastline.. 91% chance your section isnt hit. make this a stacked odds permutation and you have to go seven times before getting the odds to 51.7%.. near even. now, we have seven installments of 30 years to wait.. thats 210 years.
so, with mobile given an especially weighted, unscientific chance of getting hit, you only have to wait just over two centuries to see a category five come calling. so, all you have to do is keep making this forecast for every gulf storm for until the year 2212 and youve got an even chance of getting it right, once.
heheh... now that ive taunted the storm by saying how statistically improbable it is that youre going to get a cat five, id be shaking in my boots if i was in mobile.
HF 0446z20september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Thanks from Mobile.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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that guy that posted he had TS winds for 2 days in C florida during Andrew if full of CRAP. I was here and had high clouds and passing showers with some gusts maybe near 20-25 at times then went to calm. What a imagination!!!! 
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Brett
Unregistered
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I dunno friends. I still have a discomfort about this storm, and I am in So. Fla. I will admit to a bit of wishcasting, but beyond that, I just look at that trof digging into Texas, and the motion of the clous in front of it shifting North and NE...and I just have a bad feeling that this sucker may turn north some overnight. Goodnight everyone. Let's all stay safe.
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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no 2am adv yet?
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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I was just wondering that myself. Anyone wanna take a crack at making their own 2am? 
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Well its out now...but I think they could have saved time by saying "see the 11pm advisory" as its nearly the same. Should be interesting to see what this plane finds thats in her now. Anyone wanna make bets on 95mph winds and um 975mb pressure?
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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0604z/2:04am edt
center 21.08n/83.03w
highest flight level wind 74kt
min central pressure 973mb
973mb usually correlates to about 100mph winds.. maybe theyll get stronger winds in another pass.
movement is still wnw, looks like the center will pass over the very extreme western tip of pinar del rio province in cuba.
track has been fairly consistent for over 24hrs now.
HF 0708z20september
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Yea, I was wondering the same thing when I saw that message. I wasn't too far off with my random edumikated guess. Wonder what kinda speed their dropsounds are getting..my mind is too fried to try and decode the jumbo this late in the night.
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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pressure has fallen 8mb in about 7hrs. at this rate it will be a major hurricane (pressure<965mb )around noon friday. this further south track has all of my ideas about gulf meandering and eventual recurvature in a corner.. the goofy ever westward runs that /avn and several of the suite models have put out at times have verified fairly well so far. of course steering currents should be nearly dead within 36hrs.. by the end of the weekend the orders for crow will be placed.
HF 0715z20september
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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key west radar shows the eye just skirting the southern edge of the isle of youth.Seems to be curving to the west. You can see the eye spinning really well right now.
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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That tin foil on the rabbit ears radar site I posted earlier shows the eye as well and doesn't shove it so eratically westward, but does seem like its headed more west than anything now. Just in case ur bored and don't feel like looking back its... http://www.met.inf.cu/radar.asp
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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hey, I like that little tin foil rabbit eared radar. Nice graphics. I believe the keys are out of danger at this point. Definetly going into the gulf. From there, who knows?
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