MikeC
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Tropical Storm Gert formed yesterday afternoon in the Bay of Campeche, and it is poised to make landfall along the Mexican coastline, a fair bit south of where Emily came ashore last week.
Tropical storm Warnings are up along that part of the Mexican coastline.
![](http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2005/franklin2.jpg)
Franklin is moving out to sea sill, with still only the BAMM model suggesting anything else. (The BAMM hasn't verified at all yet)
More to come later...
Event Related Links
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Tropical Storm Franklin
Floater Vis/IR Loop of Franklin with Storm Path Overlay
Animated Model Plot of Franklin
Model Plot of Franklin (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Franklin Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Franklin
Tropical Storm Gert
Floater Vis/IR Loop of Gert with Storm Path Overlay
Animated Model Plot of Gert
Model Plot of Gert (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Gert
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MichaelA
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What a time for a server to go down! Getting this from :
Quote:
Service Unavailable
The server is temporarily unable to service your request. Please try again later.
-------------------- Michael
PWS
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John03
Unregistered
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ATTEMPTS TO COORDINATE WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO AN EXTENSION OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL...BUT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA PESCA.
Love that Mexican Gov't...... Anyway Franklin is or should be dropping in strength, since the low level center is now exposed this morning, alot of shear...Gert may pick up a little this morning but is very close to land, so not expecting too much.
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GuppieGrouper
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Well it looks on satellite signature like Franklin "fell" for Gert and it tore him to pieces when she rejected him. He has exposed his soul to the world. I imagine he will have to get into hot water to revive his interest in life and the pursuit of Florida pleasures.
-------------------- God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
Edited by GuppieGrouper (Sun Jul 24 2005 09:02 AM)
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leetdan
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Quote:
Well it looks on satellite signature like Franklin "fell" for Gert
Bahaha....
The visible loop on Franklin is pretty cool to look at, it's as if the middle and upper layers of the storm have been peeled back to the south to let us all look at the low-level circulation below.
-------------------- [witty phrase here]
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HanKFranK
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franklin is getting sheared more severely today...still moving east (or northeast). if it decouples the northern end will remain franklin... as far east as it's gone it isn't coming back. the mid-layer vorticity hasn't 'come loose' but should over the next couple of days.. maybe the low level center will jerk around and do a couple of stunts near bermuda as it tries to come with it. i've had franklin wrong thus far; maybe i'll get something related but strange right here...
area further west has my interest. a weak area of low pressure and mid-layer vorticity is on the trailing flank of franklin east of florida.. some convergence in the area as well as the settling mid-layer trough near the east coast is helping force it. with the vortmax present and whatever energy peels back from franklin... a new center may develop near the northern bahamas over the next couple of days. that may be how this thing finally evolves... it wouldn't be franklin in any case if this takes place.
gert jumped north the other night.. maybe it'll come in closer to texas than it was progged to last night, but unless the center tightens rapidly and gets swept nnw in the deep layer flow, it's going to nudge inland before it can make a strengthening run up the coast towards texas. track looks good, maybe a little south.. maybe slightly too weak. the mid-level moisture from gert will be moving up into texas over the next few.
strong wave near 50w is still choking in dry saharan air.. with the low near 12n still diffuse and without convection. still a chance it blows some as it nears the islands... the large area of turning will slowly continue to spin down otherwise.
follow on waves are low amplitude and will only perk up in response to ridging aloft.. of which there's a little closer to the caribbean.
HF 1539z24july
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GuppieGrouper
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The last available water vapor loop shows a piece of convection right off the E. coast of Florida. It will probably be our central Florida rain that is a 60% chance of today, however, Gert certainly did not turn out to be the monster her name conjured up. So Harvey would be the next contender. I am beginning to hope that all the names for the next 6 storms will be Tropical Storms and not hurricanes. This would be nice and would also prove the point that it only takes one storm to make a disaster and that multiple formations of weak storms are just plain fun to look at.
-------------------- God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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leetdan
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The new discussion is up, basically saying what we all now know about Franklin. The poor guy's being shorn like an overly fluffy sheep.
And as for Gert, there's an absence of the well-defined circulation it had earlier. It looks even sloppier than Franklin on visible satellite, though it has much more associated convection visible on the IR loop.
-------------------- [witty phrase here]
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DMFischer
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I do more lurking and reading here than anything, and have learned more than I am sure what to do with ..but thats another topic. I was studying this SAT http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/weather/sat.gif and want to see if I am still miss understanding. the white of course is water/moisture and that line of dark that loops down into the panhandle, that is dry air. right? so is this a trough? and if I am correct, it is this that steered Franklin out.
Thanks for patient answers
Dawn
-------------------- Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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Wxwatcher2
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Franklin and Gert are both kind of whimpy storms.
So when the story is written that this year we had "X" number of named storms, lets keep in mind that a certain number of them were nothing to write home about.
I'm glad for the break in anything major before the August/September time frame begins.
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Clark
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The same holds true for any season, making them no less impactful than any others. and Cindy brought plenty of rain to the central Gulf coast; Franklin put a scare into Florida for some time and nearly reached hurricane intensity; and Bret and Gert both impacted Mexico much like did Florida/Alabama. Oh yeah...and then there's and Emily. Considering just those two laone, I don't think it's prudent to knock down the rest of the season in its entirety just because they may not have gotten to hurricane strength. This isn't a case of the naming every last thing out there -- each storm this year has been a bonafide tropical cyclone.
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Beaumont, TX
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Whether the storms are "whimpy" or full blown hurricanes it is still interesting that this many have formed before August.
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Random Chaos
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Yeah, wasn't something like the strongest July hurricane since 1969? (not sure on the year)
dennis was 'the' strongest july hurricane. nothing stronger in the historical database (though i'm sure there have been others). -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Jul 24 2005 01:53 PM)
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Steve H1
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Actuallly DM, the hite line that Franklin is on is the trough exiting. The Dark area in the Ohio valley is ridging/higher pressure. The trough or cold front is pushing Franklin out. Sometimes storms duck under the cold front and head westward underneath the building ridge (dark area). Associate troughs with areas of lower pressure/Moisture (white areas on the picture) usually amplifying or rising air,and ridges with clear skies (dark areas on picture) and sinking air/drier conditions.
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Steve
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I agree with HF's analysis on Franklin. He split apart, but it's so far east it would be hard for him to come back. Just the same, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the energy sticks around for the next 3-5 days.
On another forum, I put together a mini-analysis of the landfall forecasts I read leading into the season and how they are playing out. It was in conjunction with the Joe B. 7/15 update that was already posted here. Since it's kind of a slow day, I'll go ahead and post the discussion portion if anyone's interested. If not, skip down .
...Considering the obvious potential for close in stuff, I would think there will be some additional tropical storm hits here and there as well. If that verifies along with what we've already seen and what he thinks is to come, 2005 could end up way worse than 2004. I wouldn't have suspected that.
FWIW, I don't have an opinion on his updated forecast one way or the other. It seems almost sensationalist. But 2004's was too and lived up to the hype as far as landfall intensity. I'm just interested in who's honing in on the right ideas between some of the seasonal forecasts I look at. Primarily, I read Independentwx, Bastardi, Hurricane Alley, Dr. Gray's %ages and Gary Gray (more for criticism than anything else).
So far Joe is doing pretty well based on his June forecast. But he's got a long way to go (and admittedly so does the 2005 Atlantic Storm Season) if he's going to turn out to have been on with his '95/'54/'33 ideas. There has been some symmetry (sp?) so far.
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Indepdent (my boys Rob, Jason and sometimes Kevin Budd) utilized '52, 58', '60, '89, '96, '01 and '03. As for what they've hit and missed on so far, you have to start with the Eastern Caribbean. They noted the higher SST's, but downplayed activity there. We actually saw a July storm run through the whole Caribbean which is probably a surprise to everyone. But they also noted weaker than normal this year. They should get an A for that because 's are actually splitting off pretty frequently in front of waves in what I can only describe as a combination El Nino (where you often see more activity stretching down from the W Atlantic into the tropics) and La Nina (where trofs nearly always split). It's a variation on the neutral pattern I suppose.
Now they bombed already on the Gulf. If TD #7 becomes Gert, that would be 6 storms so far in the Gulf this season. They didn't foresee any Majors in the Gulf, but we've had 2 I think so far. They saw a hit or two on TX and NE Mexico, but only expected a minimal hurricane at worst out of whatever hit the W Gulf. They didn't expect Louisiana getting hit at all. We got Cindy as TxWxWx can probably tell you if it was as fun over in St. Charles as it was here in town. They also only saw one tropical storm for MS/AL/FL Panhandle. They've had a strong tropical storm and a Major make landfall so far (with IMHO, more to come in the late summer and possibly again in October). They see 1 tropical storm impact to the W FL Peninsula which we'll have to wait and see for.
They don't see any landfalls to the Atlantic side of Florida, though expect a close call. The caution was if the progged pattern shifted a hair westward, caution for that area would be in order. They don't forecast for GA because of the lack of supporting climatology (can't say I blame them).
They do expect the Carolinas to be impacted twice - once from a major. I think they outlined the setup for that pretty well. They don't see anything up the east coast unless it's from a storm that already landfalled in NC. Finally, they expect named storm impact in the Canadian maritimes. (They also do the islands, but I'm only looking at North America for this post).
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Hurricane Alley (excluding their 2 el nino analog seasons) utilized '59, '63, '79, '01, '03. They do a formation zone which showed 14 storms forming in the Atlantic (3 in the Gulf, 1 off FL, 1, WC, 1 EC, 4 CV, 2 CA, 2 Horse lattidues of the Atlantic. Their highest risk areas are NE Texas, central LA to Panama City, N GA/S SC, Maine and Nova Scotia - all with over a 70% probability of landfall. The Yucatan was only 40-70%as was NC which averaged from 10-40% south of the Outer Banks to 40-70% there. They've underplayed NE Mexico (10-40%) and should TD #7 become Gert before landfall, would likely miss EC/SE Mexico which they have progged at < 10%.
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Dr. William Gray and the Colorado forecast team foresaw 15 named storms this season. Their analogs as of 5/31 were '58, '66, '95, '03 and '04.
That's particularly high for them as they have tended toward under-forecasting the better part of the last several years. If they did again, it promises to be the most exciting storm season ever IMO. CSU puts out a percent chance for a major storm hit. They have the entire US East Coast at 59%, Brownsville to S FL @ 44% and the entire US Coastline at 77%. The score as of today is 1 for the Gulf. Both percentages (US EC and G.C.) are higher than average (52/31% respectively). They are set to update their forecast in 2 weeks on August 5th. They aren't as detailed about landfall because they are in year #4 of a project with Bridgewater State College that has its own website. The URL is too long, but if you do a search for "United States Landfalling Hurricane Webpage Application" you can see what they're doing and what they're looking at. Warning: it's a fairly technical piece of work.
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Millenium Weather hedged their bet and updated their forecast in late June. Their analogs (though their chart was hard to read in what they added or took out) were '04, '62, '53, '03, '60, '70, and '61. It looked like they removed '02 and '64 and replaced them with '69, '58 and '52.
For purposes of their landfall impacts, they had the Yucatan at low risk (miss), the Bay of Campeche low risk (miss), NE Mexico low-moderate (miss), TX moderate-high (remains to be seen), LA/MS/AL moderate-high (Cindy), NW Florida moderate (miss since 2 storms including a Cat 3 already hit), S FL & Bahamas moderate-high (Franklin), NEFL/GA moderate minus, SC-NC high risk (their only zone of high risk), VA/MD/DE moderate minus, NJ/NY low-moderate, New England moderate, Canadian Maritimes moderate-high.
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So that's where we stand with everyone's seasonal landfall forecasts that I read. I hope you enjoyed the post. If anyone knows of any others out there, feel free to post a critique and/or comment on this one. Sorry in advance for any misspellings or grammatical errors because it's just too long of a post to go back and edit. Peace.
Steve
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Big Red Machine
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Latest BAMM's are now showing Franklin making a loop and a scare for N. Carolina. Curious to see if BAMM will rejoin the consensus towards Bermuda in the next run.
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Lysis
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Excellent, Steve
-------------------- cheers
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GuppieGrouper
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Very interesting post. It just goes to show that there are so many aspects of forecasting that everyone can take a position and be correct in theory but verification still depends on the immediate factors at the time of observation. The thing that impresses me is that no matter how much historical data and current recon is done, the weather seems to try something new or put a new twist on an old pattern. I am still of the opinion that we will see an early winter for the south. Winter meaning temperatures that make it into the 50's at night, rebounding to whatever the atmosphere will permit for highs.
-------------------- God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Steve
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Thanks Lysis. I was hoping that others on s2k and here might have run across some different seasonal forecasts as well and be willing to post a link or a writeup. I know some outfit in Texas (something risk?) does a highest anticipated impact area, but their seasonal totals are usually so far off that I quit looking at them. I know there are others. I'm not trying to call anyone out (e.g. I love indepdentwx), but as science progresses in overall seasonal recognition, we can see who is improving and what we're learning overall. A lot of people think it's voodoo, but I always bring up whether or not people would have thought what Dr. William Gray was doing was jive back in the 1970's in trying to predict numbers of storms. Now, we all take him fairly seriously. We'll never be to the point where we'll be able to say 3 months out that a storm will be at point "x" on a certain day, but we will recognize factors that contribute to certain reactions just like we do for looking at upcoming winter or summer patterns and such.
To suppliment the beginning of the post (since I left out the Bastardi update), he's calling for hurricane hits in Texas, Canana, New England, MS/AL/NWFL zone, a major for S Florida and a major for North Carolina. I added in the part about close-in tropical storms, because I'm sure there will be 3 or 4 more of those hitting before the season is up.
Steve
-------------------- MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I've wondered about the new British model that was supposed to enhance hurricane predictions for the rest of the tropical season. I thought we would be able to get a better handle on what kinds of storms and where they would be headed for the remainder of the season.
Any news from any site regarding this?
It was supposed to get enacted in August of this year.
-------------------- ________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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