Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Joe,
This is all I could find:
British scientists have created a computer model that
significantly boosts the accuracy of hurricane predictions in
the United States. The work by a team from University College
London is expected to enable government, public, emergency
planning bodies and insurers with U.S. interests to receive
forecasts each August of the likelihood of hurricane damage
during the hurricane season that runs from August to October.
The model uses anomalies in July wind patterns from six regions
over North America and the East Pacific and North Atlantic
oceans to predict the wind energy of U.S.-striking hurricanes
for the following hurricane season. The wind anomalies are
indicative of atmospheric circulation patterns that either
favor or hinder evolving hurricanes from reaching US shores.
The large year-on-year variability in the number of hurricanes
making U.S. landfall means skilful seasonal forecasts of
activity would benefit both individuals and a range of decision-
makers. The research is summarized in Thursday's edition of the
journal Nature.
The Press Release
Here's another article on an NC State project that claims to be able to better predict numbers of storms and landfall risks.
http://www.physorg.com/news4351.html
Here's a link to tsr's ACE Index forecast from 7/7. I didn't see any mention of what they are going to release in August.
http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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CNN story on African dust.
http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/07/23/dust.storm.ap/index.html
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Hey I'm back - looks like Gert's circulation is very close to the coast. And that all the convection on Franklin's upper level circ is being sheered off to the south, but clearly the two circulations are still moving in tandem. That is so weird. I am just learning about all this but I never would have thought this type of a situation was possible.
Now how does the interaction between the circulations work when they are still coupled but physically separated like this? What would a cross section of the storm look like?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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NONAME
Unregistered
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E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY
BE FORMING NEAR 11N25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION N OF THE POSSIBLE CIRCULATION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
25W-27W IS DISORGANIZED AT THE PRESENT TIME. CONVECTION TO
THE SW APPEARS TO BE CONNECTED TO THE OVERALL CIRCULATION.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS ARE SURGING NORTHWARD ON THE E
SIDE OF THE WAVE AND MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL INCREASE NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD.
CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE FROM 20N50W-13N53W-6N56W MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT. WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE W BASED ON
1200 UTC UPPER AIR DATA FROM GUYANA AND EARLY MORNING QUIKSCAT
DATA. LEADING EDGE OF WAVE IS ABOUT 100-150 NM E OF BARBADOS AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE BROAD...EXTENDING E TO 45W
AND W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EARLIER SURFACE LOW HAD
DISSIPATED... ALTHOUGH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY STILL BE
EVIDENT NEAR 12N51W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 58W-62W.
THIS CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
Could These to devlop Easily Sence They Both Have Low-Level Circulation?
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 467
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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So, Gert is making landfall it seems... probably a good thing, it looked like it was getting its act together... Franklin looks like the LLC is actually stationary... is this an illusion or is it possible that the entire system is going to start drifting south as the LLC tries to keep contact with the Convection?
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 428
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Thanks Steve. With the TCZ rock and rolling it would be nice to see what the models would have us watch out for in August/September.
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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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The LLC seems to be situated between 72 W and 31 N based on quickstat winds and visible satellite imagery. Infrared imagery indicates a dense area of cirrus clouds to the east of the LLC looks like it's becoming baroclinic. The shear axis of the shortwave trof is really having it's affects on Franklin. I don't think Franklin will have any affects on the U.S., even wave wise... Globals have it being absorbed by the large low off of Newfoundland in 48 hours, though the track could vary somewhat from now to then...
The large wave between the Lessser Antilles and the CV islands is showing up beautifully on visible imagery. Very healthy despite the dust...
EDIT: obviously earlier satellite imagery as it's dark right now in the Cape Verde region... 
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Sun Jul 24 2005 05:35 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Here's a recent visible of Franklin. The LLC is easily seen to the NNW of the . Horizontally dissected tropical cyclone.
Shear must be approaching 25 kts or better.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES20452005205NSYxEk.jpg
Interesting report from NOAA recon plane near Gert.
As poor as her satellite signature is, they are finding 51 kt winds. That's 59 mph at flight level.
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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That's a pretty neat image!
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00cj
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 26
Loc: Panama City Beach, F.L.
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Im really interested in the question NONAME asked above. could someone give their opinion on that. thanx.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Not to go off topic,but I am getting ready to purchase some tracking software. Anyone have any thoughts on Eye Of The Storm 3000 Tracking software and any opinions on some better than others?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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I am curious why you are going to purchase tracking SW.
I did go and take a look at it and it seems like it only brings to your PC just the same thing that can be found out on the net, in a more convenient form.
I don't think discussing hurricane tracking SW is off topic.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I've tried all weather software and i actually needed to reformat the computer to get rid of it Eye of the storm is okay, but I find global tracks 7 is the best hurricane/weather software out there...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Could These to devlop Easily Sence They Both Have Low-Level Circulation?
Given the way this season has been going. Almost a 50/ 50 chance on any thunderstorm getting a name!
On the other hand. The SAL dust in the Caribbean, a small near the Greater Antilles, and the loss of upper convection. It would be a toss up for the next 24 hours.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Best cane software
1) Hurrevac
2) Hurrtrack pro
3) Global tracks
4) Storm tracker
5) Eot 3000
Best radar software Grlevel x tv version
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL STORM GERT TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
640 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON A RESEARCH MISSION
INDICATE THAT GERT HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST OF MEXICO. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 1007 MB AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH.
I don't think they need any more rain in this area!
Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 24 2005 06:53 PM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Better late then never as I always say. I wouldn't suppose they do, since they got about 10 inches of rain with Emily!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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MikeG
Unregistered
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is it me or is Franklin moving a different direction....
moving sw???
must be a wobble....
na...it's looks like a drift back to sw
take a look at the vis shots...looks like he is chasing the upper level blow off...
could he miss the mid-level trough and catch tha ridge that is about to build.....
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I just viewed the infrared loops and can see the conga line forming. I can even hear the beat! I wonder what will be promising on August the 8, 2005. Will it be Harvey, Irene, Jose, Kevin, Leroy, Mertle, Ninny, oprah or Peterpan?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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NONAME
Unregistered
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AccuWeather: "tropical wave in the Eastern atlantic near 25 west, south of 16 north and moving west at 10-15 knots. A low level center is forming along this wave and it is also causing convection" The also said it is trying to form a low level circulation this look like it could become are first Cape Verde Hurricane Any one got any more on this that they would want to share please do.
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