An active month of activity is finally coming towards an end, with Franklin moving harmlessly out to sea as a sheared storm and nothing on the immediate horizon. We might see something again by the end of the month, but nothing in the interim. Let's take a look at things, one-by-one...
Franklin -- Franklin is hanging in there despite strong northwesterly shear on the west side of an upper trough and east side of the upper ridge across the eastern US. Shear tendencies in the vicinity of the storm are negative and should remain favorable for the storm to maintain itself in the short-term before another burst of energy affects the storm in about a day. While the storm was not captured by the main trough to its north -- a factor in why it is in such a shearing environment instead of accelerating with the trough to colder waters (with weaker relative shear) -- as the upper- to mid-level waves come off of the US coastline, the storm should begin to move away and ultimately dissipate. Tropical cyclones are pretty resilient to shear, especially once they've come down from peak intensity. Franklin is proving to be no different and should be around in some form until it nears cooler waters in about 4 days. Dissipation is more likely at this time than transition, but some of the energy from the storm may be captured by one of the troughs.
Saharan dust layer -- no, it's not quite here yet in it's full fury, if it is ever going to get here. It's northward progress has been stunted by Franklin, while it has only just made it as far west as the Yucutan. This is supported by the 6z NWS Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion. Currently confined to the Caribbean Sea, if any effects are being felt in Florida, they are very weak at best. Monday's hazy conditions were more caused by stagnant air conditions underneath subsiding air with the strong upper-ridge along the east coast, helping to aid in some better-than-normal sunsets Monday night as well. Once the ridge moves out and the flow pattern becomes more progressive, the haze should begin to clear. In the interim, the Saharan dust layer hasn't moved far enough to not be affecting the strong tropical wave that came off of the African coast a couple of days ago (now located around 37W), helping to supress convection associated with the feature. Speaking of which...
African Wave Train -- The wave near 37W and another near 20-25W are the two main features in the basin right now, with the original wave that came with the Saharan dust layer now located near the Lesser Antilles. The wave near 37W is still decently well-organized but negatively impacted by the dry mid-levels; the wave nearest the coast isn't being affected so much, but isn't quite as well organized yet. A number of other waves, including one just about to come off-shore, pose a threat for 10-20 days down the line. Before then, however, chances are that one of the two current waves will organize into something near the end of the month...slightly favoring the one near 20-25W at this time. There's some model support in there too, for what it's worth. Anything that develops is probably going to track west, like and Emily, though there is a small weakness in the subtropical ridge near the islands that could try to capture something. Something to watch for later this week, I think.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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