AndyG
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Bradenton, FL
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Atlantic waves
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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per the Navy site, we now have 93L
-------------------- Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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WX Storm 2005
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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I was checking out the Monterey Tropical Cyclone Page and I found Invest 93L. You can find this at the follwing link http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...DISPLAY=Animate
Comments?
Look impressive to me.
-------------------- Nathan Fairman
Nfairman@adelphia.net
Natedogg3L - Aim
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AndyG
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Bradenton, FL
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Yeah, current bid is 3. Do I hear 4?
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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Yikes 92 and 93 invest... not to mention the conga line still on Africa. Looks like stuff's about to really hit the fan.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Interesting set of maps
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_bw.gif
-------------------- Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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WX Storm 2005
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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That's tomorrow... lol
-------------------- Nathan Fairman
Nfairman@adelphia.net
Natedogg3L - Aim
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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Franklin should be a little stronger at 11PM about 45MPH or maybe 50MPH, looks to be N or NNW. Once it started to move again. Track seems to be on target.
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: apopka
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It's not just Miami talking about influence from the tropics. Here's Melbourne's discussion.
OF NOTE IS THAT MOST OF THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME
SORT OF DISTURBANCE WNW FROM THE TROPICS TWD CUBA/BAHAMAS BY DAYS
6-7. THIS FAR OUT IN TIME THE LOCATION/INTENSITY OF SUCH A FEATURE
IS SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT ERROR. NEVERTHELESS IT MAY WIND UP BEING
SOMETHING TO KEEP TABS ON FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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WX Storm 2005
Verified CFHC User
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Here is the latest SCATT of invest 93L as an attachment.
-------------------- Nathan Fairman
Nfairman@adelphia.net
Natedogg3L - Aim
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Clark
Meteorologist
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I'm pretty much in line with what HF posted a little while ago, but wanted to add a couple of things....
* The feature east of Bermuda projected to develop appears to have support in the models for some sort of hybrid structure, at least early on, maybe trending a little more towards a tropical nature well down the line. Model depictions of a tropical cyclone not withstanding, it's one to watch in about 4 days. Most likely scenario has it just spinning around as a hybrid cyclone, keeping a weakness in the subtropical ridge that anything developed might - or might not - catch.
* Out into the east Atlantic, I still think that the wave that is now 93L -- the wave between 20-25W from my outlook early this morning -- is the better candidate for development over the next couple of days. The and are just starting to track it, with the former noting a strong mid-level feature but not much of a surface one yet; then again, that's how a lot of these things get started. If the current organization holds overnight and into tomorrow, I figure we'll have a TD out of it by sometime Thursday.
* 92L is just starting to perk up again (the further west wave from this morning's outlook), but I feel it's too broad and too tied up in dry air for any rapid development. Figure this one will have a shot in the 3-4 day time frame, likely as a storm that doesn't catch the weakness in the ridge and has the greater shot to impact land...if it does develop.
* Wave behind 93L just coming off of the coast has a shot like 93L does -- but it needs to stick around the coast for a little while or it might get impacted by the development of 93L. Nevertheless, count on this one likely becoming 94L in a day or two, with the potential for development in the 3-4 day time frame as well. No telling what it might or might not do from there.
It's going to be an active start to August, I'm afraid, and we may well end up with 8 named systems in the basin before 2004 even saw 1. Once Alex came along, however, things really got kicking...might see something like that again this year (activity-wise, not track-wise for now). I think the talk of blowing past our seasonal record is overblown, but we could get close to 20.
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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20? Thats incredible. I saw that the SHIPS model brings 92L to minimum hurricane strength in 5 days. Is that true?
-------------------- Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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You realize that 5 days is the 31st of July, and that 93L looks better organized and currently strongerthan 92L - I wonder if we will have 9 named storms for just the month of July.
That is of course assuming that not the wave over the Carribean and none of the new ones coming off Africa form Tropical Storms by then and we have even more...
Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Jul 27 2005 01:09 AM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Well, only time will tell on that one! It might, it might not...would trend not unless it gets organized in the next two days, but it has a shot. 93L has the better shot, IMO.
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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I'm better off keeping my mouth shut I mention the wave at this afternoon and now it's 93L. Oh well.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Clark,Do you see anything that could slow this crazy hurricane season down in August or September?This is getting a little scary if you live on the coast.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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If I read the Tropical Weather Discussion at 8:05 right, 92L is heading into an environment more conducive to moisture and convective development. I guess we will have to wait and see on that one.
BTW, I need a break from this season already. Updating my site is sometimes an annoying pain in the you know what. Well, besides that, I want a break from updating it almost all the time. But, the people must have their information.
-------------------- Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The 1012 mb Low depicted in the maps, over the Andros Island area, should be part of a Low that HPC included in yesterday's? Discussion.
I'll see if I can find that link.
It wasn't progged to do much more than change the moisture levels and precipitable water levels.
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
211 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005 edited~danielw
...A EXTENDING FROM A LOW ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA SOUTHWEST TO NICARAGUA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 21N 72W BY 24 HRS...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N 76W BY 48 HRS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA BY 72 HRS.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html
Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 27 2005 01:40 AM)
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
BTW, I need a break from this season already.
i knoww right..and i havent even been in one and imm sick of it
gosh, the fact that the next storm will be Harvey scares me....H already!?!?
-------------------- 2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
i know right..and i havent even been in one and im sick of it.
gosh, the fact that the next storm will be Harvey scares me....H already!?!?
On that note...I walked back into the room and was showing the "Next List". Alpha, Beta...
That's the list they use After the current list of 24 names is exhausted.
Hope to never See an ALPHA. Except in the Archives of Old Storms.
Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 27 2005 02:33 AM)
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