rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 428
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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But in reality, that future tropical storm (hurricane?) 92L may work its way around the ridge- too early to tell, of course, but even this sequential mapping of the low's movement shows a curving feature- hopefully- away from the coastal areas of northern Florida/Carolinas. But it's too early to tell. It does seem good for us that it would seem to be moving north of the Bahamas.
-------------------- ________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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Quote:
92L is starting to show its spin. We may already have a depression after all.
Plan of the Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
NOUS42 KNHC 281600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT THU 28 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-061
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 29/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 29/1430Z
D. 18.5N 62.0W
E. 29/1930Z TO 29/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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web page
try this one.
-------------------- I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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Here's a visible loop on WUnderground. I wouldn't be surprised if we see TD8 at 19Z.
Here's a question for Clark or anybody else, what's the difference between the Superensemble and the model available on the moe.met.fsu site? I don't remember seeing the latter available last year, but the Superensemble is still talked about as being unavailable to the public.
Speaking of the , it shows 93L spinning up first, followed by both developed storms turning NW in tandem, 92L over the eastern Bahamas and 93L east of the Leewards. Also, it shows something spinning up in the shallow northern GOM and coming ashore, guess where, over Pensacola
-------------------- [witty phrase here]
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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that is really awesome map thingie...lol...but i sure wish for the best for the people on the east coast....
-------------------- "Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
that is really awesome map thingie...lol...but i sure wish for the best for the people on the east coast....
east coast of florida or the US?
I would imagine the entire east coast, since no specific location was specified. --Clark
-------------------- 2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by Clark (Thu Jul 28 2005 01:01 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The Superensemble is a statistical model that takes output from the global & some tropical models and uses the known qualities and biases of each model with particular types of storms and tries to minimize that error. The is just our version of the standard model, here applied to tropical cyclone forecasting. It is a dynamical model, uses the analyses as its initial conditions, and is run only over a portion of the globe. The two models are run by two different groups here at , with the output from the Superensemble not available to the public and the output being freely available. There is no connection between the two other than the fact that they both originate out of .
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Ed G
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Loc: Clermont, Fl
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"east coast of florida or the US"?
LOL! We must have become a seperate country some time during the night.
Conch Republic
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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no i mean the florida coast or the entie coast, but clark answere my question..gracias
-------------------- 2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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92L is still very broad and disorganized. The leading edge of the wave is located near 16N and 58W with a weak low vortex with it. Also there is more thunderstorm activity with the northern extent near 18.5 and 53 W. Overall its a 1011mb low ( which has been for couple days now). I dont feel there will be a dep until the plane gets in tomorrow or 1 of the 2 vortexs becomes the main low. Models want to show the 1 near 58W as the main center and so do I. If so then its still very weak with the lack of convection. I expect this system overall to continue w-wnw thru the weekend and be near the SE bahamas by Sunday as a tropical storm. Trough coming down off the U.S east coast by then will slow this significantly. After that it there is a split. 40% it could meander up the east coast offshore.30% move out to sea. 30% stay far enough south to miss the trough and continue wnw thru the fla straits by Tuesday.
Again as I said couple days ago, I dont think this will be a TD until Friday. There is no main center of circulation with this yet.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
"east coast of florida or the US"?
LOL! We must have become a seperate country some time during the night.
Conch Republic
Now that is funny!!!We needed that.Well our little break seems to be coming to an end.Lots of stuff to watch.Hang on!!!
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indianapolis
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Ok, how long till we know something? We're in Melbourne and going out of town on Sat for 1 week. I dread driving as far as we're going only having to come back to prepare the house and what-not! Not only that but we'll be camping in the mountains so I can't get to this board or the . (can you say withdrawels..LOL)Do you think we'll know more by tomorrow night? Hopefully this won't even make TS status. I'm just thinking just in case.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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The HPC 7-day forecast is interesting. It seems some of the global models are showing the same thing...a storm heading through the bahamas inching its way either north or northwest..The lastest & UKMET really slow the storm down over the bahamas. I presume becuz of a lack of steering currents for several days. What's real interesting on the 7 day HPC graphic is that big ole high pressure system in the mid-atlantic region. If this verifies and the ridge stays strong or gets stronger, it may force 92L (named system?) west into the peninsula AKA & Jeanne of last year.
-------------------- RJB
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>There is no main center of circulation with this yet.
I agree with scotts. 92L still has a ways to go despite its improving presentation.
Steve
-------------------- MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
92L is still very broad and disorganized. The leading edge of the wave is located near 16N and 58W with a weak low vortex with it. Also there is more thunderstorm activity with the northern extent near 18.5 and 53 W. Overall its a 1011mb low ( which has been for couple days now). I dont feel there will be a dep until the plane gets in tomorrow or 1 of the 2 vortexs becomes the main low. Models want to show the 1 near 58W as the main center and so do I. If so then its still very weak with the lack of convection. I expect this system overall to continue w-wnw thru the weekend and be near the SE bahamas by Sunday as a tropical storm. Trough coming down off the U.S east coast by then will slow this significantly. After that it there is a split. 40% it could meander up the east coast offshore.30% move out to sea. 30% stay far enough south to miss the trough and continue wnw thru the fla straits by Tuesday.
Again as I said couple days ago, I dont think this will be a TD until Friday. There is no main center of circulation with this yet.
this seems about right scottsvb--i mean the percentages but i think we may have a TD by the close of saturday maybe sunday
-------------------- 2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by Ryan (Thu Jul 28 2005 01:14 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
Ok, how long till we know something? We're in Melbourne and going out of town on Sat for 1 week. I dread driving as far as we're going only having to come back to prepare the house and what-not! Not only that but we'll be camping in the mountains so I can't get to this board or the . (can you say withdrawels..LOL)Do you think we'll know more by tomorrow night? Hopefully this won't even make TS status. I'm just thinking just in case.
I am not touching this one.If I say go have a good time and don't worry,and then something bad happens you will be mad at me.And,If I say don't go,and nothing happens,you will be mad at me.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Deltona, FL
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Quote:
The HPC 7-day forecast is interesting. It seems some of the global models are showing the same thing...a storm heading through the bahamas inching its way either north or northwest..The lastest & UKMET really slow the storm down over the bahamas. I presume becuz of a lack of steering currents for several days. What's real interesting on the 7 day HPC graphic is that big ole high pressure system in the mid-atlantic region. If this verifies and the ridge stays strong or gets stronger, it may force 92L (named system?) west into the peninsula AKA & Jeanne of last year.
I thought so my self.
-------------------- I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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12z appears (to my nonprofessional eyes) to be good news. Still doesn't develop the system and (if I'm reading this correctly) moves it out to sea.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Loc: florida
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I think this is going to end up being a track simular to but i still dont know it a long wait out
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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SHIPS does take it up to 81 mph in 120 hrs
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