Anonymous
Unregistered
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Well I agree with Scotts post. I belive it will drift to just north of Yucatan then a strong shortwave next week will pick this up take it first north to 25n/89w then turn more to NE and increase a bit in foward speed making landfall in Big Bend. New 12Z AVN still looks to far west although takes it north up texas coast and then east. Do think it may weaken slightly pending how close it gets to Yucantan, don't think it will make landfall though.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Sorry I created last post.
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RICKINMOBILE
Unregistered
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IMHO, this Hurricane has weak steering currents..is finished going south...and is now stalled...
CAT 4 next....will be a beautiful sight...
think it will stay generally on a NW drift now....for the next 72 hours...could do JUST ABOUT ANYTHING>>>>>>>>
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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looks like izzy is quasi stationary again, but expected to continue drifting west. intensity now estimated at 105kt/948mb. the descriptive line mentioned that the storm could become a category four later today. well, recon will be there to give us the scoop pretty soon.
HF 1805z21september
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Mike
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Port St. John, Fla
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Scott; I respect your opinions,a little cocky sometimes , but provide good insight. Your statemment just made me nervous.
All others; A quote from a NASA Emergency Manager: "If you fail to plan, then you plan to fail!"
Seems like goods words for all people who border the GOM.
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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948 MB!
Cat 4 tonight?
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Don't want to labor the issue. However, if the storm is a 3 or higher and hits your area I think you might want to follow Frank's idea. Safe rooms are only safe when it has a roof and walls. If the storm is bad enough, any destroyed window or door in the house will allow the pressure of the wind to enter and literally lift the roof off. In large storms you must protect the entire envelope of the house. That is how most homes in Miami were destroyed during Andrew...most folks boarded up portions of their homes or none at all. Hopefully I am speaking to the choir.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Callaway, Florida
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IN ADDITION...THE FLIGHT CREW REPORTED A SECOND BUT MUCH SMALLER EYE
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PRIMARY EYE. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY A
STRONG MESOVORTEX ASSOCIATED WITH AN EYEWALL SUPERCELL THAT HAS
PERISTED IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS.
What does this mean??? Also with it not moving are we gonna start seeing a more northern tract?
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Recon says 947MB. They also said the eye is open on the NW. Doe's this go with what andy1tom said?
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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These can really be an amazing sight. Its the equivalent of having an F5 tornado within the or the eyewall itself. Sometimes they are completely clear at the top - its like having a pinpoint eye within the eyewall structure. I can't recall one ever lasting for two hours though - unreal!
ED
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Isidore is growing into a monster. Latest pressure 947mb! And an eye like area locatd within eyewall. Never heard of it. I think this won't have much trouble getting to cat 4 strength tonight. Now the plot becomes unclear as to where to place track. With Isidore stalled forecast track will likely need to be rejusted at least time wise and possibly track wise.
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
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Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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Could this be the turn to the north?
Southern
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
These can really be an amazing sight.
If this becomes visible via satelite or if you come across a photo, I would hope you could provide a URL so we can see what you are talking about.
Your verbal description suggests Izzy is even scarier than ever. One thing I remember about Camille was all of the tornados that went over, near or through the area I was huddled up in. The next morning, it was obvious where damage was tornadic and which was 'just' hurricane. All night, we could hear them...sounded different than the wind from the storm....
-------------------- Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Jeanine
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Hollywood, FL
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MESOVORTEX-A medium-size whirlwind on the scale of a few miles. It is thus smaller than a hurricane but larger than a tornado. Mesovortices may form in the eyewall of a hurricane, and may cause significant damage at ground level. Question: During Andrew is this what could of happened or did Andrew just spawn tornados
Thanks
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I hope the hunter is equiped for a photo or two. I've only heard of a mesovortex. I would love to see a picture of one.
-------------------- Jim
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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That is what happened to Andrew now that you mention it. I remember watcing something on that. It causes catastrophic damage. As the damage would be worse scattered about where there were mesovortices.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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anyone, any chance storm gets picked up by trough and heads back ENE into Keys or South Florida???
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MikeC
Admin
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Janine, Andrew had mesovortexes. So yes, it's very similar to that.
Isidore is turning out to be quite fascinating to watch. I'm hoping that it'll weaken before it makes landfall, wherever that may be.
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HanKFranK
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utterly weird. thought the eye feature bobbing up and down on satelite looked strange.. guess this explains some of it. think this explains the stall also and until it is worked out the westward motion will be jiggy and erratic.
pretty much everybody but ukmet now has recurvature. 12Z runs are coming out and has already gone back to bending the system sw for a while at least. looked at the hpc/ncep plots and got a strange show.. on it izzy moves to within maybe 150 miles of brownsville on friday morning, but by saturday is well ene of there, about 100 miles off the louisiana coast. dont think that one will hold water, but seeing the sharper recurvature sort of worried me.
go take a look at:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/fcsttxt.html
noted that the storm is further intensified on most models. safe to assume we will be dealing with a cat 4 shortly.
what to do with kyle.. some models turn it west in a couple of days, some just leave it floundering like a bug on a pin. on satelite it looks like the surface and upper centers are decoupled.. have to see if it realigns or what. the disagreement by different height centers on what kyle wants to do tells me at least that it is changing direction, that it's done going north for now. the earlier westward models have backed off for now, though.
92L and the system around the bahamas are pure mysteries at this point. 92L obviously isnt developing as fast as guidance wants it to, and seems to be staying well to the south. i dont picture the strong system in the northern islands, but the weak, west moving one in the southern islands. the complex upper system east of florida.. several places low level systems could form around here, and probably more than one will try. hard to say which will be the victor out of this.. but the southern system avn first advertised and other models have caught on to.. is becoming more credible.
back when gustav was passing hatteras on september 10th, i figured that the active span was done.. but here we are on the 21st and were up to k, with probably one or two more on the way. the old 12-8-4 prediction from november is now threatened, just as the official ones have already gone down. those ludicrous high guesscasts some of you made last fall that i inwardly scoffed at are now within reach.. have to wonder. K storm on september 21st.. last time we paced this high was 1995. actually reached K on august 27th that year, but were still on M at this date.
HF 1918z21september
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Hmmm, looks like the models are bringing our friend, the squished spider back in the longer range. Starting to get a lot of divergence. Making things more interested then I had thought it would this weekend.
-------------------- Jim
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