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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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August Begins, a Few Things to Watch
      #46222 - Mon Aug 01 2005 08:08 AM

The month of July is over, a record month, the first July ever to produce 7 named storms. And most of the entire month we were tracking a system or two in the Atlantic or Gulf.

With some luck we'll remain relatively quiet for August. But right now we still have a few waves out to watch.

The first, is the wave around the Bahamas, which is also known as 92L. This wave has been struggling for days to get organized now, and just hasn't. Conditions still aren't all that favorable for development, but it still could form later.

The chance for development graph for this system 92L:
Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----*----------------]


It had some chances before, but it's still relatively low.

The second is the wave currently in the Southeast Caribbean, this has the best shot at development, and is continuing to move westward. We'll have to watch this one later. This is also known as 93L.


The chance for development graph for this system:
Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---------*-----------]



fionally there is a wave in the Central Atlantic near the Azores, it's not likely for tropical development, but a subtropical storm forming is not out of the question.


The chance for development graph for this system (Subtropical):
Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---*-----------------]



We'll be watching this later as well as a few other hotspots over the next few days.

Event Related Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms


Wave near Bahamas (Aka 92L)
Animated Model Plot of Wave near Bahamas (92L)
Model Plot of Wave near Bahamas(92L) (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)


Wave in Southeastern Caribbean Sea(Aka 93L)
Animated Model Plot of Wave in in Eastern Caribbean (93L)
Model Plot of Wave in Eastern Caribbean (93L) (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
San Juan, PR Radar Loop

Wave in East Atlantic near the Azores (Aka 94L)
Model Plot of Wave near the Azores (94L) (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)


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hurricane expert
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch [Re: MikeC]
      #46224 - Mon Aug 01 2005 09:47 AM

93L looks like it could become better organize later this afternoon and 92L has a slight chance

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lawgator
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch [Re: hurricane expert]
      #46225 - Mon Aug 01 2005 09:54 AM

What are your best lat/long coordinates for 93 L?

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La Nimo
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch [Re: hurricane expert]
      #46226 - Mon Aug 01 2005 09:59 AM

Don't think so 93L not very heathly, no sign of a LLC...

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Wxwatcher2
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch [Re: La Nimo]
      #46227 - Mon Aug 01 2005 10:12 AM

It's good to finally not be tracking anything for awhile.

I for one hope we all get completely bored during the month of August.
Usually, during the last week of August and the first two weeks of September things get busy. We will see.


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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #46230 - Mon Aug 01 2005 12:57 PM

thank goodness nothing to report altho the MM5fsu is showin some activity about 120 hrs out .. man it is quite in here .. with no storms on our heals .. lol where did everyone go ? =P

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Ed G
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]
      #46231 - Mon Aug 01 2005 01:01 PM

Well, it wasn't off topic before a moderator edited it to say what that particular moderator wanted to read... at that particular time.

I originally responded to a post asking "where is everyone". I was obviously joking when I wrote:

"were still here... and hoping to get a chance to use those brand new hurricane panels."

Then I asked a question about what I was seeing on the FSU MM5 and was accused by that moderator of wishcasting... wishcasting of all things. Couldn't believe it.

Anyhow, I enjoy the site, but can you guys please come up with a uniform standard for all moderators to follow when deleting and/or editing posts?

Speaking of editing posts, what's up with that? Why are moderators changing the body of posts? I would much rather have my post deleted than have someone change what I have written to what they think should be seen.

You have to understand, I'm a person who expresses exactly what I think. I try not to cause you problems, but If I feel I'm being trampled upon, I'm darn well gonna let you know - respectfully of course.

Ban me or put up with me - your choice. I'll still be reading.

Edited by Ed G (Tue Aug 02 2005 07:37 AM)


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VolusiaMike
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch [Re: D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]
      #46232 - Mon Aug 01 2005 01:02 PM

Quote:

man it is quite in here .. with no storms on our heals .. lol where did everyone go ? =P




Think everyone is taking a break and reloading for the next batch!!!


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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch [Re: VolusiaMike]
      #46233 - Mon Aug 01 2005 01:05 PM

hahah maybe people will go back to doing thier "work" @ work now .. post were gettin crazy .. the FSU is the only model that seems to be picking up on anything as far as i can tell http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ =P

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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch [Re: D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]
      #46234 - Mon Aug 01 2005 01:11 PM

(off-topic post deleted)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 01 2005 10:00 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch [Re: D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]
      #46235 - Mon Aug 01 2005 01:20 PM

92L looks like the Low level circulation is moving southwest? or to wsw?
there is a low there!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Ron Basso
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch [Re: D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]
      #46236 - Mon Aug 01 2005 01:21 PM

The GOM spin-up on the FSUmm5 is from yesterdays run at 00Z. I would tend to discount the MM5 because it tends to suffer from multiple spurious lows from time to time - kinda like the GFS convective feedback issues. That's not to say it can't happen, but without other model support, it's less likely. What's more interesting to me is that three major global models (12Z GFS, UKMET,and CMC) are all developing some sort of Cape Verde storm that moves to about 40W in their 144 hr runs.

--------------------
RJB


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scottsvb
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch [Re: Ron Basso]
      #46237 - Mon Aug 01 2005 01:35 PM

Storm thats the mid-upper low moving wsw that you see. The LLC is trying to form near 24N and 70W just to its se. 93L died out as expect with the models. I expect our next name storm will come in 3 days from the Cape Verde islands. There is still the chance with 92L also.

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Old Sailor
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch [Re: D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]
      #46239 - Mon Aug 01 2005 01:44 PM

You guys need to read the models carefully, and watch the Run dates, As for the models being on traget one needs to wait till you have 3 or 4 Runs showing the same path.

Enjoy Guys.


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ROB H
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch [Re: MikeC]
      #46241 - Mon Aug 01 2005 01:54 PM

Read latest local weather statement for west central florida (available on the front page). It says GFS & ETA models develop a tropical cyclone on Wednesday near
the Bahamas.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch [Re: scottsvb]
      #46242 - Mon Aug 01 2005 01:54 PM

i not sure but that looks like a low level circulation there, but my eyes may be playing tricks on me.... 24n - 70w

low level or not?

it is very sheared!!! what ever it is

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Old Sailor
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch [Re: Old Sailor]
      #46243 - Mon Aug 01 2005 01:56 PM

Back on July 26.2005 I mention that that Sand/Dust may keep some storms from forming, looking at 92L and 93L there maybe some truth to Dust clouds helping to keep the LLC from forming along with Wind shear, Maybe 92L can get it's act together now that out of the Dust cloud field moving WN.

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damejune2
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #46244 - Mon Aug 01 2005 02:28 PM

As of 1130am edt, the NHC has said all the waves are pretty much nothing and wouldn't be anything of concern.....where are you getting your information? I clicked a link someone had about a LLC, but other than that, what leads you to believe that 92 and 93L will still become a cyclone??

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


Edited by damejune2 (Mon Aug 01 2005 02:29 PM)


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damejune2
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch [Re: ROB H]
      #46245 - Mon Aug 01 2005 02:32 PM

I read that too, however you left out the part that said that if a cyclone forms, it will move out to sea away from Fla and the US.....if one doesn't form then Fla can expect some higher moisture, etc...but nothing to be too concerned with.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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adogg76
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Re: August Begins, a Few Things to Watch [Re: damejune2]
      #46248 - Mon Aug 01 2005 02:55 PM

Can anyone please provide me with a good lightning data page for Florida???

Try this one: http://www.flamedia.com/light2.jpg

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Mon Aug 01 2005 03:40 PM)


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