ShanaTX
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geez. deleted due to being 10,000th poster to post the info
sorry guys
'shana
Edited by ShanaTX (Tue Aug 02 2005 03:04 PM)
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Bloodstar
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*laughs* well then, it was even closer than close, And I'll presume that means it was missing nothing
-Mark
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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danielw
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This shot should answer your question. The Surface low is well SW of the convection. I would guess that shear is the main factor. The convection is being pushed NE of the surface part of the system.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2005 (edited~danielw)
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NEAR 26N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF
THE LOW FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 66W-70W....
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
26N73W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 68W-76W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER AS MENTIONED
ABOVE WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
( 4 degrees of longitude separate the lower and upper levels. That's around 240nm.~danielw)
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 02 2005 03:23 PM)
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
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Which way is it moving then? Does not say. And it still does not say anything about a TD#8 on the site.......
-------------------- I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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LI Phil
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it will at 5:00
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
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Okay, thanks
Phil, what do you think?
-------------------- I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
Edited by Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser (Tue Aug 02 2005 03:31 PM)
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danielw
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It's Moving toward the NE.
NHC has NOT released anything to classify 92L as a Tropical Depression.
They may release something just prior to 4 PM EDT.
As of this time 1932Z- 3:32 PM EDT
There isn't anything other than the data to support the upgrade.
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CoalCracker
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Looks like JB figures few of the future storms will get into the Gulf but rather track into the western Atlantic before making landfall along the eastern seaboard. Did he give any reason(s) why he's predicitng the areas specified for hits? Seems he's really going out on a limb.
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Jamiewx
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In addition to , the text computer model data for 18Z also shows the following:
000
WHXX01 KWBC 021840
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (AL082005) ON 20050802 1800 UTC
Full product
-------------------- "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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danielw
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Yep. That has Fish-Spinner written All over it.
54N 11 W. Hmmm
That's got to be near the U.K.
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LI Phil
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TD08 sure looks like it's gonna get yanked out to sea by that trof...
another view
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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CoalCracker
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Yep. If that becomes Harvey, it's not going to be a "Wallbanger" for the states.
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Major7
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I think with all the excitement of the new predictions for the rest of the year, your question got lost, and since I was also wondering, I will repost it.
When posting in the discussions, what does "mjo" mean?
Thanks.
-------------------- My experiences:
Betsy 1965~New Orleans (my first)
Alicia 1983~Texas; Opal 1995~Georgia;
Frances & Jeanne 2004~Florida;
Dennis, Eye of Katrina, Eyewall of Wilma~Florida 2005
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CoalCracker
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When I typed in a search engine, I found a number on entries for "Madden-Julian Oscillation" which I'm sure is what you're looking for. In checking the results, however, I was totally lost. Perhaps one of our moderators could provide a basic explanation for those of us without a meterologicl background.
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LI Phil
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Quote:
When posting in the discussions, what does "mjo" mean?
Thanks.
sorry...here's a full description of MJO
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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ShanaTX
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Quote:
When posting in the discussions, what does "mjo" mean?
Thanks.
See The Madden-Julian oscillation
or MJO
or Madden-Julian Oscillation
or Google Madden-Julian Oscillation
'shana
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Beaumont, TX
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Thanks for the information.
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Spoken
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Quote:
TD08 sure looks like it's gonna get yanked out to sea by that trof...
another view
Question: Do you think that trof might be partially restricting an inflow of dry air from the east?
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Random Chaos
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Yeah, fishspinner but is predicting it will be a Tropical Storm by morning, though never a hurricane.
--------
On a semi-offtopic question:
Speaking of seasonal oscillations, know of any studies pertaining to weather patterns and periodic planetary axis wobbles? Also I'm interested in periodic solar storms/patterns of the same type. I just like patterns and haven't looked into this sort of thing with weather in about 9 years, and wondering if anything new's come out.
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ShanaTX
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5pm advisory says TS by tonight.
Quote:
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight.
and an update at 8.
'shana
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