scottsvb
Weather Master
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I wouldnt throw away TD 9 as of yet..........not to say anything will happen but all it has todo is survive thru Sunday and it will be near 20W and 60W by Sunday night. A ridge should be in place off the SE US thru most of next week. Conditions will be favorible for development east of the bahamas. I just say lets wait to see how this pans out over the weekend. I wouldnt be surprised if by mid week we are staring at a strong hurricane near the bahama chain. A current weaker system will track w or wnw right now. had it stronger thru the period on its 12Z run taking it N.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Between the 12Z runs and 18Z runs their is a considerable shift south and westward. I know it hasn't done that well this year but I wonder if its picking up something and could possibly be indicating a trend in the other models maybe?
I hope not, I hope this just fizzles instead of sizzles.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Clark
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MM -- sorry for the delay in replying, but of course...two keen people can see two entirely different things! It's fine to disagree. I wasn't in any way trying to say 'this is right and yours is wrong...,' so I apologize if it came out that way.
Convection is trying to get going on various flanks of the storm, but nothing organized yet. These low-level vortices can survive for some time without convection, but if we don't see anything in a day or two...that'll be that.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Clark
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CaneTracker -- it's more a case, I think, of it coming back into line with the previous 6 or so model runs than changing to something new. The 12Z run was quite different from the others in suggesting that northward movement late in the period...though it has done well with this storm for the past 6-8 runs now. It was too strong early, but picked up on a move northward and then turn west with a weak storm...not too bad. We'll have to see how it does from here on out.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Quote:
CaneTracker -- it's more a case, I think, of it coming back into line with the previous 6 or so model runs than changing to something new. The 12Z run was quite different from the others in suggesting that northward movement late in the period...though it has done well with this storm for the past 6-8 runs now. It was too strong early, but picked up on a move northward and then turn west with a weak storm...not too bad. We'll have to see how it does from here on out.
Thanks Clark for answering that. Now the question is, is if this is going to be the most accurate model with this storm. We'll see.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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HanKFranK
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stuff in order:
harvey.. lingering, probably around for another 36-48 hrs or so. then out it goes.
9L... starting to generate some convection again. it isn't 'weakening' because it was probably stronger (maybe a borderline t.s.) last night before the convection went poof. the track has bent back to the west today... makes a little more sense to be honest. there's some westerly shear from that ULL to the north... should keep it in check for saturday. later sunday 9L will probably be revving up some. if it can deepen significantly by tuesday or so, it'll turn up near/east of bermuda. if it keeps plodding along, weak.. it'll be a western atlantic threat. scottsvb most recently highlighted this option... the ridge isn't what we'd typically expect to keep a storm going west, so it'll have to keep a low profile or out it goes. there's also the option that it doesn't survive.. but i don't buy it. it'll probably persist.
trailer wave... near 18/20w behind 9L. tracks this and keeps it on a low trajectory. like any wave in a year like this... can be a development threat as it gets further west next week.
gulf to bahamas... the weak low near pensacola is too close to the coast to really develop. further south along the trough another max could develop. don't expect that to pan out. two more areas east of florida... the mcc core from last night's florida convection started blowing more late this afternoon. there's a broad turning around there.. trough axis going east and west... and it's still throwing convection tonight. eyeball it tomorrow, especially if pressures start falling. there's another trough max east of the bahamas. it hasn't looked much better today.
i don't see anything else worth note. irene still seems to be coming along. the home brew option is floating around.
noticed that is rising towards neutral again (maybe). makes me think the wave is passing the westpac and soon to really get cranking on this side of the pond.
HF 0658z06august
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Frank P
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noticed the burst convection SW of TD9 at ~10N and 50W... it has more convection than TD9 and almost hints of a rotation on the IR loop... actually it looks more impressive than TD9 at the moment, yes its awfully low to the south but it looks to be moving off to the wnw aiming at the southern windward islands about 800 miles away
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/anim8ir.html
as far as the home brew this evening.....definitely another rotation in the northern GOM per the radar loops, and lastest round of bouy data also indicates it at the surface with winds reported out of the east wnw and south at key bouys, however, pressures remain high, overall slowing rising, and max winds in the vicinity are only ~13.6 k gusts.... but its been doing this same scenario for the last week....
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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Good morning all, here is the 5am, Frank P was right on w/ the 3am post.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005
TD-9 REMAINS A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD HAS ACTUALLY IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH NO MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS APPARENT IN NIGHTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON THE TIGHTER INNER CIRCULATION...TWO CONSECUTIVE QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES INDICATING NUMEROUS 30-KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND A CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 1006.5MB ...EQUAL TO ABOUT 33 KT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RECENTLY BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP INTO A CURVED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE ABOUT 120 NMI AWAY FROM THE CENTER...WHICH FURTHER SUGGEST IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/13. THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED AND TURNED MORE WESTWARD NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PROBLEMATIC IN THAT IT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE INTENSITY...AND THEREFORE...THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THESE UNFAVORABLE SHEAR CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE TO A MINIMUM DURING THAT TIME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WARMER WATER AND MORE STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND DEEPENING OF THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION SHOULD OCCUR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BE STEERED SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW TOWARD AN EXPECTED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 55W-60W LONGITUDE. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM MOVES MORE WESTWARD AND STAYS BELOW 20N LATITUDE THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN IT MAY NEVER FEEL THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND NOT TURN NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALREADY TOO FAR TO THE NORTH OR RIGHT OF THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN A LITTLE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AFTER THAT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR LEFT OR SOUTH AS THE UKMET MODEL.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INHIBITING FACTORS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER THAT SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH IN A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAN WHAT THE SHIPS MODEL USED. HOWEVER... IF THE ACTUAL FORECAST ENDS UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH...THEN WARMER WATER AND EVEN LESS VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 17.7N 41.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 18.2N 43.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 18.8N 46.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 19.4N 48.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 20.1N 51.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 21.3N 54.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 57.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 59.5W 55 KT
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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LI Phil
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Good morning all,
Just a few random thoughts as we look at the tropics this monring...lets start with soon-to-be Harvey...it was a longshot at best, but TS Harvey never did make it to hurricane strength, topping out at 65 MPH for a time...he was never much of a threat (thankfully), only dumping some copious rain on bermuda with some strong gusts, but nothing of note. He should remain a tropical entity for another 24 to 48 hours before dissipating in the north atlantic. as of the 5:00 am, Harvey was located at 33.37N/56.6W tracking to the NNE at 7 mph; winds 50 mph with gusts to 65 mph...a threat, if you can even call him that, only to shipping interests. Harvey
TD9: this system has gotten its act a little bit more together overnight...as of 5:00, TD9 was located at 17.7N/41.7W with winds of 35 mph and gusts of 50 mph, moving WNW at a fairly quick 15 mph. TD9 is not expected to reach TS status today, as it is still experiencing some shear. Slow strengthening is expected, and we could have Irene by Sunday. the trailer wave may impact future Irene by sending her on a more southerly track... TD 9
i'd be remiss if i didn't mention the system still spinning up in the gulf, between mississippi and alabama...the system is starting to get a little better organized, although the models do not develop this, and some are keeping the center of circulation on shore...at any rate, this will keep the area very wet and tropical for the weekend...it should be watched, but again, development into a depression is not expected...upper level winds are not conducive to development
HanKFranK mentioned the area to the east of the Bahamas...development here is not expected, but it does merit a bear watch, as does an area of disturbed weather near southern mexico, although this activity is expected to track west and overland.
what to make of the wave behind TD 9? at this point, it's simply a waiting game ("we'll just have to wait and see"). at this time of year, there is always the potential for development and the african wave train is up and cranking.
That's about all we have for now. Everybody have a safe weekend.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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T Numbers are back up for TD 9 and Harvey
06/1145 UTC 17.6N 42.1W T1.0/1.0 09
06/1145 UTC 33.8N 57.1W T3.0/3.0 HARVEY
06/0545 UTC 32.9N 56.9W T2.5/3.0 HARVEY
06/0545 UTC 17.5N 41.0W TOO WEAK 09
05/1745 UTC 32.3N 57.6W ST2.5/3.0 HARVEY
05/1730 UTC 16.3N 38.2W T1.0/1.5 09
05/1700 UTC 16.3N 38.2W T1.0/1.5 09
05/1145 UTC 32.4N 58.5W ST3.0/3.5 08
05/1130 UTC 15.5N 36.4W T1.5/1.5 09
05/0600 UTC 13.0N 34.9W T1.5/1.5 09
05/0545 UTC 32.6N 59.4W T3.5/3.5 HARVEY
05/0000 UTC 12.9N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 09
04/2345 UTC 32.4N 60.5W T3.5/3.5 HARVEY
04/1700 UTC 12.5N 33.3W T1.0/1.0 95
04/1745 UTC 32.3N 62.4W T3.5/3.5 HARVEY
04/1100 UTC 12.4N 32.5W T1.0/1.0 95
04/0530 UTC 12.4N 31.5W T1.0/1.0 95
TD 9 Is getting better organized it looks like
and also when does navy declare invest and what do the have to look like or charactoristics do they have to have how close is the wave behind 9 to being a invest.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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TD9 looks like it's central convection is blooming right now, up substantially in the past couple hours. It will be interesting to see what the discussion says in 45 minutes.
The wave behind TD9 also looks like it's getting it's act together.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Can anyone comment on this UL feature near Puerto Rico and what effect it may have on any of us.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/animwv.html
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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Reaper
Weather Watcher
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FSU has it coming north and developing off the SC/NC coast.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2...;hour=Animation
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Son , think you need to learn to read the model runs better off the coast of NC/SC on MM5 006Z run. more then off to coast more like 600 miles if you buy into MM5, which is not one of the better models.
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Johns Island, SC
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Lot's of interesting swirls in the Atlantic when you look at water vapor and sat loops. One question, there are a lot of storms of the SC coast this morning. Very warm water. Any chance that this could develop?
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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I agree....i checked it and it's way off the coast....
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
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RE: models...I mean, on the run Reaper mentioned...look at all the boguscanes the model is generating off Central America in the Pacific!
Models, like so many other things in life need to be looked at in their entirity and in context. As the old saying goes...even a blind squirrel can find a nut, sometimes....but those times are few and far between! 
MM
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Ron Basso
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I just took a quick look at the VIS SAT in the north-central GOM. There appears to be at least a mid-level circulation developing around dauphin island south of Mobile. I noticed some wrap around clouds and banding features (at least three diff ones) to the east of the feature. I see what appears to be an ULL north of P'Cola which is controlling the broad CC steering flow. There is also a trough diving south into S La with some dry air. While the upper level environment looks poor for pure tropical development, perhaps some baroclinically derived feature may be taking root. More along the lines of a sub-tropical low? Of course, it looked a lot like this yesterday morning and the convection & banding waned in the afternoon. Pressures have dropped slightly since this time yesterday (about 0.06 in from offshore buoys) with the lowest pressure centered offshore south of Mobile. If it does develop, due to its closeness to land it seems it will be weak and slow. Appears to be a eastward drift of the CC offshore.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10
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RJB
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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LilPhil - What do you mean when you say TD9 could take a more southerly track? Just curious......thanks!
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Torrington, CT
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I have a question and this is for anyone to answer - When i go to the page with the models, the one where you can pick and choose which storm, animation, by hour, etc...how does a person use it properly to get a forecasted track by the model?? I have no clue and would be delighted if someone could tell me how to do it. 
PM me or post here for all to see, which ever way works best! Thanks again!
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by damejune2 (Sat Aug 06 2005 03:10 PM)
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