meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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meant in front of trof.
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KyleinPensacola
Unregistered
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Thanks for the information. According to what he said i think i will stock up an prepare just in case. but what he says makes sense to me. Still i'll keep checking in everynow an then to keep informed. thanks again
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Are you wanting this to come to you? You can have it. I thought I was the one who wanted these things so bad...ha,ha,ha! Anything over a Cat. 1 and it can go somewhere else...... hopefully in a non-populated area somewhere. I still don't see this going all the way back to Florida.
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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no, if youd listen ive said before i dont want this thing to hit any populated area, i was explaning to him what direction the wind is in front of a trof.
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Anonymous
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newest guidance shows texas out of the woods. A more N gulf to florida.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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were is this new data at please post
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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meto, i can promise you this thing isnt coming back to central florida. youve been calling it to turn north, northeast, and now east northeast to get it to you.. eventually youll be calling due east and southeast too i guess.
other day i shifted my strike zone over from morgan city to fort walton. have the feeling i may be sliding it west some more. not ready to sucker up to the latest guidance just yet.. but yeah, im sure that question this morning about people betting it wouldnt cross certain longitude lines was directed mostly at me.. it was my choice of words. what can i say, its headed that way. Opal came up from over at 93w.. so that sort of defines the limit of how far west i think it can go and still come back to hit the central gulf coast.
heres the rehash of what i was pondering yesterday morning.. im back to it. system sort of dances along the yucatan coast.. perhaps even does what bastardi describes. for the life of me i still think that rebuilt ridging to the east will give the storm a northerly component... which would lead to a phasing ahead of the large shortwave late this week. system will probably be weaker than this morning. heights are already rising southeast of izzy, so thinking the turn on official on tuesday is probably about right.
by the way.. 934mb? 122kt flight level winds? d6.5? category 3? its like one of those test questions, choose which of the above does not belong.
kyle.. more of a push now on some models to kick kyle westward, starting maybe tomorrow. interesting that some retrograde the big east atlantic trough back a few degrees and turn kyle into it. i dont think that will happen. by the way, when are they going to drop the stupid subtrop thing? should have been switched over when the deep convection attempt formed yesterday.
td13.. ahh. its racing. when formative that was one of the ideas i presented.. but then discarded when guidance made it a hurricane.. and the ridging aloft was visible. but this morning, its decided to go streaking. might kill itself after all. not quite fifty fifty as a slowdown is forecast, but pretty good chance that lili will be waiting. if/when this thing gets organized the track will be south of puerto rico.
the d-rated wave/low out near the cape verdes is moving slowly with an upper trough ahead. outlook maps have a possible tropical cyclone on them for this system. but right now, doubt it can develop.
the upper low/surface trough east of florida, which has kept isidore from recurving, is probably peaking out its cycle. around tuesday perhaps something will attempt to form in the large area of disturbed weather around it.
long long post finished. yeah, i know ive blown it so far on isidore, in the long run. but theres still evidence to support it coming up in the middle of the gulf.. looks best to me. thats what ill go with.
have to say though, the mexico option looks really easy from here.
HF 1516z22september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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were is the data saying it will head back n/e you said it was new were is it or is this a wish cast
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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what time will new model up dates come out
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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hey, it could go northeast you dont know that it wont, i never said east ese. ive been thru hurricanes ok. so chill..
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Anonymous
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meto look at w/v loop at texas that short wave looks to be digging south fast and geting big this could turn him n/e or run him south if it dont dry air is with it he may be at his peak if he dont get moving thats just my gess looks like it could happen
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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will probably go ne eventually. just not tampa or wherever you live and keep mentioning it could go. perhaps you should explore other possibilities?
ive been through hurricanes too my man. doesnt that make me feel special?
HF 1744z22september
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NE4XT
Unregistered
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Has anybody checked this sat. pic out? (http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=FloaterImagery&product=Float2Loop&prodnav=none&pid=none)What exactly is that major blob to the east of Isadore ? Could it become an entity on its own and travel up the Florida coast? One of the models last week ( I forget which one) showed something like this happening. Any thoughts?
Thanks Bill Titusville
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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you should rethink yours.
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Hey Billl,
I have been watching and wondering about that area too. Alhough it stil seems to be part of Izzy.
K
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turkeyman
Unregistered
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I don't want to see any long lines at the store for batteries. Everybody has had plenty of time, now that Isidore is in the Gulf.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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HUGE CONVECTION COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN SOUTH
OF WESTERN CUBA...APPARENTLY MORE THAN JUST BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH
ISIDORE. 8 AM SHIP OBS AND GRAND CAYMAN OB (SE G30 KT PRES 1006 MB) HINTS AT TROUGHING OVER THE AREA.
-------------------- Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Has anyone Checked the pimple forming in TD#13 Convection, and WV showing lots of organ. What is the pressure there?
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