HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
think you're a little too ready to call irene dead. it has survived and slowly strengthened under shear. the center has relocated twice. nonetheless they've snagged satellite-derived t.s. winds on it. it's probably had t.s. winds in the convective bursts since friday. the global models that were killing it have switched back to having it survive... for a central atlantic recurvature late next week. i think that's probably how it's going to go.
HF 1731z07august
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
Doesn't The Weather Channel use the tracks that the uses? Funny how now that the storm is named, doesn't have a projected path for Irene. Odd, but not a big deal.
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
Hank - Irene, in your opinion, will head out to sea and only be a problem for shipping and the fishies?
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
MapMaster - I agree with Hank - i dont think Irene will affect land, but i think it will strengthen some before it's done and over.
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
|
|
I dunno, MM. The LLC is a pretty vigorous one on visible satellite imagery. It's a heavily sheared system, but so was Franklin and so is Harvey. The QuikSCAT pass was pretty conclusive (high-res shaded at http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_byu_at_image21/byu_hires20052190759_09.png) and continues the trend of development evidenced from the nighttime pass Friday night, Saturday night, and into Sunday morning with stronger winds as the convection -- admittedly removed from the center -- got going. There's a mid-level feature just SE of the system that is obscuring things, even on visible imagery, but overall the surface circulation is going strong.
Unfortunately, all of the recent microwave imager passes missed the storm, so we don't have that tool to better diagnose the storm's structure. Admittedly as well, the system did look better earlier -- more coincident with the QuikSCAT pass -- but I don't see a lot to suggest that the intensity is on the high side. They've been using QuikSCAT a lot more with storms far from land as a supplement to the technique, which in itself is not perfect, and the two are in pretty good agreement at this time. I do agree though...this one is looking more and more like one for the fish.
Just my two cents as well...
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
Quote:
looks like an open wave right now, even though there is a small circulation center.
an open wave by definition does not have a circulation center, hence the term 'open'
this is a very weak system but does have the closed low necessary for continued classification
|
MapMaster
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 138
|
|
Hence my phraseology- "looks" as opposed to, is.
MM
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
For some of our newer posters (and a few of our older ones):
It seems like every year I have to post something like this - and this year is no exception. From the Site Usage Rules:
"Low Content Posts: Please do not make single line posts containing no content (ie, "cool" "hello", "I agree", or something else completely void of meaning). Or general cheerleading, for example, if you think someone did a good job and have nothing else to add send them a PM, it works better for this. Otherwise posts like these just litter up the forums. Remember, is not a Chat Room - it is a Niche topic-oriented site, so please attempt to stay 'on topic' by placing your posts in the proper Forum."
The attempt here is to avoid the use of one-line posts. is not a Chat Room, it is a site for Forum-oriented dialogue, so please use it that way. Reviewing many of the posts over the past two days, most of the one-liners add nothing to the exchange of information. A lot of them ask questions that have already been answered elsewhere - sometimes more than once. Before you ask a question, take the time to review some of the other Forums - odds are that it already has been answered. Use the PM feature to thank someone for their input. Personal information does not belong on this site - it just clutters it. Keep in mind that there is another Forum for asking questions of a more general weather nature - please use it when appropriate. When you post a one-liner like "I think that its moving WSW" and you don't include anything else - like WHY you think this - its going to get deleted by the Moderators. Sometimes we let this stuff go, but when we start to receive a bunch of complaints from other site users - we attempt to resolve the problem. Please help us by following the site rules - it makes the job of site moderation a lot easier ... and it provides for a more enjoyable experience for all of the site users. Thanks for your help on this.
ED
|
CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
|
|
Irene looks like she is going under a heavy shear right now. I know it was Clark earlier who mentioned there was a seperate mid-level circulation to the southeast. And it is especially apparent right now. I wonder if it survives today. Also, is the mid-level flow to the west on the southern side as what appears to be the mid-level center is moving southwest. In the event that these two split, if a new low level center fired up under the mid-level circulation, would it still be called Irene?
Here is the satallite by the way:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
The said that Irene would encounter shearing for a few more days and after that it's anyone's guess. It could go bye bye, it could miss the ridge and go west, it could get caught up in between the two and head out to sea. I'd like to see this thing just disappear, but that is unlikely, in my opinion.
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
